DeFi Report, a company specializing in cryptocurrency analysis and research, shared key forecasts regarding the future of Bitcoin and risky assets in general in its latest macroeconomic analysis. The assessment, which considers the Fed's interest rate policy, the cooling technology sector, and macroeconomic vulnerabilities, states that a potential final wave of Bitcoin decline could restructure the market's foundation, paving the way for a strong start to a new bull cycle.
According to the analysis, while the US economy appears strong on the surface, the bond market and economic indicators suggest the Fed has not yet completed its interest rate hiking process. The fact that the yield on US 2-year Treasury bonds is trading approximately 55 basis points above the Fed's federal funds rate indicates that the market is pricing in persistent inflationary pressure. While the market is discussing the possibility of two more rate hikes by the end of the year, significant vulnerability factors such as slowing non-farm payroll growth, declining job turnover, a drop in the personal savings rate to 3%, and a 25% decrease in housing starts should be noted.
The NASDAQ index, which has shown sharp gains in recent months fueled by AI developments, has fallen roughly 8-9% from its peak, highlighting a decline in risk appetite and a strong dollar trend. Although Bitcoin has shown greater resilience compared to stocks, holding around $65,000, there are warnings that a new wave of "risk-off" sentiment, associated with a broader sell-off in risky assets, could also impact cryptocurrency markets.
Analysts at The DeFi Report argue that the crypto market has experienced roughly 10 months of a bear season, and most of the correction driven by temporal factors is complete. However, they suggest that under macroeconomic pressure, a final capitulation wave, termed a "rocky landing," could occur. In this scenario, analysts expect Bitcoin to pull back to the $55,000 level, providing an opportunity for a "deeply weighted" purchase.
Analysts claim that a drop in Bitcoin to $55,000 would fully clear the market bubble, creating a solid foundation for a long-term upward trend in the future.
*This is not investment advice.
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