‘Altcoin season isn’t gone’ – Why 2026 may be the year to watch

ambcryptoPublicado em 2025-12-21Última atualização em 2025-12-21

Resumo

The crypto market anticipates a potential altcoin season in 2026, though Bitcoin currently maintains dominance with 59.6% market share. Historical patterns show altcoins are near long-term support levels against BTC, similar to pre-rally phases, but projections suggest a delayed breakout until 2026. The altcoin season index remains low at 35, indicating patience is required before altcoins outperform. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offers a contrasting perspective, arguing altcoin seasons are always occurring in some part of the market. He suggests traders feel they "missed" gains because they held the wrong assets, citing examples like Hyperliquid and Solana’s significant rallies. Hayes warns against expecting past cycles to repeat identically, emphasizing that new tokens and narratives drive each cycle’s winners. While institutional and retail interest may shift to Ethereum and major altcoins for yield by 2026, the current capital concentration in BTC underscores a waiting game for broader altseason momentum.

Altseason is once again the market’s favorite promise, with expectations out to 2026. But for now, Bitcoin [BTC] is still firmly in charge.

Meanwhile, BitmMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that altcoin gains never really disappear... they just move. The question, then, is not when altseason arrives, but where it’s already in action.

2026 – Year of the altcoins?

The crypto community is already looking into the next year for the light. The following chart shows why: altcoin rallies in 2018 and 2021, followed by long periods of underperformance.

Currently, altcoins are once again near long-term support levels against BTC, similar to past pre-altseason phases. But instead of an immediate breakout, many projections now point to 2026 as the next major window.

The charts say altseason can happen, but right now, patience is being priced in.

That caution shows.

At press time, Bitcoin dominance has climbed back to around 59.6%, holding near recent highs rather than rolling over.

Capital is still concentrated in BTC. At the same time, the altcoin season index was at 35, well below the threshold that brings altcoin outperformance.

Altseasons only start once BTC dominance breaks down decisively and the index sustains higher readings.

As Kevin Rusher, founder of RAAC, told AMBCrypto,

“... institutions and retail investors alike seek yield in the DeFi ecosystem of the world’s computer. And so, as we head into 2026, investors can rely on ETH along with the other big guns.”

Altseason is always around, but...

Still, Arthur Hayes has a different way to look at the market. In his view, altcoin season isn’t a single moment everyone waits for; it’s something that’s always happening somewhere.

The reason many traders feel like they’ve “missed it,” he argued, is that they owned the wrong assets. Hayes said in a recent podcast,

“There is always an altcoin season happening... and [if you’re] always saying altcoin season isn’t there, [it’s] because you didn’t own what went up...”

He warned against expecting the next cycle to mirror past ones, where the same tokens and narratives repeated. This time, the winners are different.

“Again, there’s been altcoin season. You just didn’t participate in it.”

He mentioned examples like Hyperliquid, which surged from a low single-digit launch price to massive gains, and Solana, which rebounded sharply after collapsing in 2022.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin still dominates today, but altseason may happen in 2026.
Arthur Hayes notes that altcoin gains are already happening though.

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Perguntas relacionadas

QAccording to the article, why is 2026 considered a potential year for the next major altcoin season?

AThe article states that many projections point to 2026 as the next major window for an altcoin season because altcoins are currently near long-term support levels against BTC, similar to past pre-altseason phases, and the market is currently pricing in patience rather than an immediate breakout.

QWhat two key market indicators suggest that an altcoin season has not yet begun at the time of writing?

AAt press time, Bitcoin dominance was around 59.6%, holding near recent highs, and the altcoin season index was at 35, which is well below the threshold required for altcoin outperformance.

QWhat is Arthur Hayes's contrasting view on the existence of an 'altcoin season'?

AArthur Hayes argues that an altcoin season is not a single moment that everyone waits for, but is something that is always happening somewhere in the market. He believes traders feel they've missed it because they owned the wrong assets that didn't go up.

QWhich two specific cryptocurrencies does the article mention as examples of assets that have already experienced significant gains?

AThe article mentions Hyperliquid, which surged from a low single-digit launch price, and Solana, which rebounded sharply after its collapse in 2022.

QWhat does Kevin Rusher, founder of RAAC, suggest investors will seek in the DeFi ecosystem as we head into 2026?

AKevin Rusher suggested that both institutions and retail investors will seek yield in the DeFi ecosystem, and that investors can rely on Ethereum (ETH) along with 'the other big guns'.

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