Original | Odaily Daily Planet(@OdailyChina)
Author|jk
Bitcoin once again breached the key psychological support level of $60,000 during today's session, hitting a low of $59,023, marking its lowest point since October 2024, a near 20-month low. At the time of writing, BTC has recovered slightly from the low, trading around $60,600, with the 24-hour decline narrowing to approximately 3%, and down about 9% over the past seven days.
This latest dip marks the third time Bitcoin has fallen below the $60,000 threshold this year. Unlike the previous two occasions, this decline occurred against a backdrop of sustained institutional capital outflows and a sharp reversal in macro policy expectations, resulting in a systemic shock to market confidence.
What are the reasons?
Reason 1: Spot ETFs Experience Longest Net Outflow Streak on Record
US Bitcoin spot ETFs have been the core driver of this decline. Since mid-May, ETFs have recorded net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with a cumulative loss of approximately $5.94 billion over 30 days, marking the largest wave of institutional withdrawal since their launch in January 2024.
Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net outflow of $528 million on May 28th, setting a post-launch record. The total assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs have fallen from around $113 billion at the beginning of the year to about $77.5 billion, evaporating over 30%. Notably, according to The Block data, on June 23rd, ETFs still recorded a single-day net outflow of approximately $113.8 million, indicating the institutional selling pressure has not substantially reversed. Whether this institutional selling pressure will ease in the future will be a key observation window for the market.
ETF Net Outflows, Source: The Block
The problem with ETFs is the cycle: when institutions redeem shares, authorized participants must directly sell the corresponding Bitcoin in the secondary market, creating sustained spot selling pressure. CoinShares has characterized the current situation as a "sentiment shock," suggesting it is not a structural collapse of the crypto market's fundamentals.
Reason 2: Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rekindled, Macro Pressure Surges
Macro factors have also exerted significant pressure on Bitcoin. The number of US job openings in April rose to 7.62 million, far exceeding market expectations and hitting the highest level in nearly two years, directly pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back above 4.45%.
Subsequently, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack publicly stated that if inflation remains persistently high, the Fed may need to restart rate hikes. Data from CME FedWatch shows the market's pricing probability of a rate hike before year-end has risen to over 50%.
Conversely, the strong 2025 bull run was built on the liquidity expectation of "Fed rate cuts." Once the rate cut expectation reverses and real interest rates rise, institutional capital tends to shift towards lower-risk assets like bonds and cash, making Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, particularly vulnerable.
What Do Different Analysts Say?
- 21Shares: In their latest "State of the Crypto Market" report, 21Shares points out that the trajectory of this decline closely aligns with historical post-halving correction cycles. Although they initially anticipated the potential end of Bitcoin's four-year cycle earlier this year, the current price action suggests the cycle persists. The firm maintains its year-end target of $100,000, believing the massive base of approximately $53 billion in cumulative ETF net inflows will form an effective bottom support.
- Arthur Hayes: Holds a more pessimistic view, expecting Bitcoin to bottom at $40,000 within the next six months, with the core logic being the Fed's hawkish stance will continue to suppress market liquidity. Hayes stated he maintains long positions but has hedged downside risks using options.
- CryptoQuant: Citing on-chain data, they point out that the average investor cost basis is currently around $53,000, and historically, bear market bottoms typically occur after the price falls below the "realized price." The institution believes this bear market may persist until late 2026 or even early 2027, with no clear signal yet of a sustained demand recovery.
In the short term, market focus will center on upcoming US inflation data and the Fed's next policy signals. If CPI data comes in lower than expected, it could provide Bitcoin a breathing window; if it confirms persistent inflation again, pressure for further declines will continue to build. Before the extreme panic sentiment dissipates and ETF fund flows show a clear inflection point, whether Bitcoin can hold the critical $60,000 defense line will likely determine the next phase of this bear market.
