BTC Medium-Term Trend Weakens, Short-Term Volatility Fails to Mask Directional Risks | Invited Analysis
BTC Mid-Term Trend Weakens, Short-Term Volatility Masks Directional Risks | Guest Analysis
Analyst Conaldo reviews Bitcoin market performance from Dec 15-21, noting that BTC entered a predicted consolidation phase, oscillating within the $87.5K–$89K range. The mid-term outlook remains bearish, with the long-term bullish trend line (since late 2022) and the recent descending trend line (from the Oct 2025 high) converging. A breakout above this dual resistance is needed to shift the bearish structure.
Last week, four short trades were executed based on quantitative models, yielding a 2.14% return. Key supports were held around $84.5K, closely aligning with predictions.
Technical analysis (weekly and daily charts) indicates BTC remains in a bear market. Momentum indicators linger below zero, and sentiment metrics are neutral, suggesting continued weakness and potential downside risk.
For the week of Dec 22-28, BTC is expected to trade in a wide range. Critical resistance lies at $89.5K–$91K. A breakdown could deepen corrections, while holding may lead to limited rebounds. Key supports are at $86.5K–$87.5K and $83.5K–$84.5K.
Trading strategies maintain 65% mid-term short positions and 30% short-term tactical shorts based on range breaks, with strict stop-losses and profit-taking rules.
Macro factors include reduced holiday liquidity, potential Fed chair nomination announcements, U.S. Q3 GDP revisions, and BoJ policy cues, which may influence market volatility. Investors are advised to exercise caution amid low-liquidity swings.
Odaily星球日报12/22 06:40
