Miners' 'Capitulation' Called a Bullish Factor for Bitcoin. Why
RBC Crypto reports that Bitcoin's price drop and increased mining competition have led to record-low profitability for miners, causing a "tactical" decline in hash rate in recent months. According to an analysis by VanEck, historical data since 2014 shows that periods of declining hash rate have often been a bullish signal for Bitcoin's price in the medium term. In 77% of cases where the hash rate fell over a 90-day period, Bitcoin's price saw positive returns over the next 180 days, with an average increase of 72%. This suggests that "miner capitulation may indicate a bottom" for Bitcoin's price.
The hash rate peaked at around 1.31 Zh/s on October 24 but dropped to 1.02 Zh/s by December 23, a nearly 25% decline. During this period, Bitcoin's price fell from $110,000 to $87,500, having peaked at $126,200 in early October. Despite low profitability, many mining companies continue operations due to their belief in Bitcoin's future.
The report also highlights the role of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, which have been accumulating Bitcoin as a reserve. Over a 30-day period until mid-December, these companies purchased approximately 42,000 BTC, the largest such acquisition since July-August 2025. However, DAT companies have faced challenges, with median stock prices for US and Canadian firms dropping 43% by December 8, and 70% of DAT stocks expected to be worth less by year-end. Additionally, 85% of tokens launched in 2025 have fallen below their initial offering price.
RBK-crypto12/23 11:07
