2026 Investment Framework: The End of Globalization, AI Supply-Demand Mismatch, and the Silver Frenzy
Investment Framework 2026: End of Globalization, AI Supply-Demand Mismatch, and Silver’s Surge
The author outlines a macro investment framework centered on three key themes: the end of globalization, accelerating resource nationalism, and the rise of AI-driven structural shifts. The portfolio returned 131%, largely due to significant long positions in gold and silver.
Silver markets are experiencing extreme volatility and a potential supply squeeze, with prices influenced by COMEX contango, LBMA backwardation, and Asian export restrictions. Investment strategies include calendar spreads and butterfly options on silver.
Other positions include shortening duration, adding crash protection via SPY, shorting student loan servicers, and going long on tin miners and Japanese banks.
Key thematic drivers:
- Globalization’s end: Resource nationalism rises; Monroe Doctrine 2.0 emerges; metal inflation continues while oil may face oversupply.
- China’s challenges: Banking system fragility, hidden real estate losses, and rising religious dissent.
- AI acceleration: Compute demand will vastly outstrip supply by 2035. Two phases: near-term oversupply (2025–2027) followed by demand explosion (2028–2030+) as agentic AI matures.
- Domestic US issues: Government shutdown risks, student debt crises, and the societal impact of AI and GLP-1 drugs.
Investment opportunities include copper, tin, photonics, nuclear energy, natural gas, and compute infrastructure. Markets face pressure from Japanese monetary normalization and private credit illiquidity.
Core view: AI demand is real, energy and metal markets are shifting, and policy changes are accelerating. Short-term cash flow gaps may cause volatility, but long-term thematic bets remain valid.
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