2025-12-08 Segunda

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2025 Tether Financial Analysis: An Additional $45 Billion in Reserves Needed to Maintain Stability

The article analyzes Tether's financial stability in 2025, arguing it functions as an unregulated bank rather than a simple payment operator. It applies a banking regulatory framework (Basel Capital Framework) to assess if Tether holds sufficient capital (its ~$6.8B in excess reserves) to cover potential losses from its asset portfolio. The core issue is whether Tether's total capital is adequate for its risk-weighted assets (RWAs). Its $181.2B in assets are largely in low-risk instruments (~77%), but ~13% is in volatile commodities like gold and Bitcoin. The analysis estimates Tether's RWAs between $62.3B and $175.3B, depending on the conservative treatment of its Bitcoin holdings. Under a baseline scenario, Tether's capital ratio is near minimum regulatory requirements. However, compared to well-capitalized banks, it may need an additional ~$4.5B in capital to support its current $USDT issuance. A more punitive treatment of Bitcoin could imply a deficit of $12.5B-$25B. Tether's counter-argument points to substantial group-level profits and equity (~$20B+), but these are not legally committed to the token entity and are invested in illiquid ventures like mining and AI. The article concludes that the sufficiency of Tether's capital is a complex, structural question without a definitive answer, dependent on asset risk weightings and the firm's willingness to mobilize group resources in a crisis.

marsbitHá 4h

2025 Tether Financial Analysis: An Additional $45 Billion in Reserves Needed to Maintain Stability

marsbitHá 4h

Three Binance Bitcoin Charts Point to the Direction of BTC's Next Major Move

Three key on-chain metrics from Binance suggest Bitcoin's (BTC) short-term price direction may be influenced by shifting liquidity patterns and trader positioning. Data indicates rising selling pressure from large holders (whales), with the exchange whale ratio across all platforms reaching 0.47. This ratio's 14-day EMA on Binance climbed to 0.427, a four-month high, signaling whales are moving coins to exchanges, often a precursor to distribution. This creates overhead resistance, making a breakout above $93,000 difficult and increasing the likelihood of consolidation or a deeper retest of support levels. Simultaneously, the 30-day SMA of BTC inflows to Binance hit 8,915, nearing the March 3rd peak of 9,031. Historically, such high inflow levels have been followed by significant price corrections, indicating holders are preparing to reduce risk exposure or rotate assets. Furthermore, Binance recorded a substantial inflow of 946,000 USDT deposits over seven days, significantly more than other major exchanges. This surge in stablecoin liquidity suggests traders are preparing capital to either buy the dip or reposition during expected volatility. In summary, these three metrics—rising whale selling, peak BTC exchange inflows, and growing stablecoin reserves—point to increased selling pressure and a cautious market. A break below the $90,000 support could accelerate a downtrend, while holding this level might lead to a swift rebound.

cointelegraph_中文Há 5h

Three Binance Bitcoin Charts Point to the Direction of BTC's Next Major Move

cointelegraph_中文Há 5h

Macro Outlook This Week: The Decisive Battle Over the Fed's "Hawkish Rate Cut," A Crucial Test for the AI Narrative

This week (Dec 9-15) is dominated by two major themes: the Federal Reserve's final rate decision of the year and key developments in AI. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. The real focus, however, is on whether the move is accompanied by a "hawkish" tone. The central bank may signal a more cautious path for future cuts in 2025 to manage internal dissent and inflation concerns. The market's reaction is uncertain: it could either heed this warning (pressuring tech stocks and crypto) or ignore it, choosing instead to focus on anticipated aggressive easing under the incoming Trump administration—a scenario known as the "Hassett Trade." Concurrently, the AI narrative faces critical tests. Rumors suggest OpenAI may surprise-launch its GPT-5.2 model early, which could significantly boost sentiment across tech and crypto AI tokens. Furthermore, earnings reports from key AI infrastructure firms Broadcom and Oracle will serve as a crucial barometer for the strength of AI-related capital expenditure. Investors are warned of extreme volatility, particularly due to reduced liquidity from early market closures on Wednesday and a full U.S. market holiday on Thursday. The core events are the FOMC decision, updated economic projections (dot plot), and Chair Powell's press conference at 03:00 GMT on Thursday, followed by Broadcom's earnings. The advice is to reduce leverage ahead of this high-stakes volatility.

marsbitHá 5h

Macro Outlook This Week: The Decisive Battle Over the Fed's "Hawkish Rate Cut," A Crucial Test for the AI Narrative

marsbitHá 5h

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