Trading Volume Hits New Highs Repeatedly, Why Is Kalshi's Pre-IPO Stock Price Experiencing a Tale of Extremes?
Amidst a declining broader market, the prediction market sector has shown remarkable resilience, with trading activity hitting record highs. Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market platform in the U.S., reached over $9.5 billion in trading volume in January, ranking first in the sector and setting a new monthly record. This has sparked renewed discussions about the fair pre-IPO share price of Kalshi, which is poised to become the "first prediction market stock."
Currently, significant price discrepancies exist on crypto-based pre-IPO trading platforms: PreStocks lists Kalshi shares between $364 and $369, while Jarsy shows a price of around $504. In traditional markets, Nasdaq Private Market prices shares at approximately $320, and Hiive at $358.
Kalshi completed a Series E funding round last year at a $11 billion valuation. Based on this, the reasonable pre-IPO share price range is estimated to be between $320 and $358. However, considering Kalshi's dominant market share and January volume nearing the entire prediction market's size from October last year, its implied valuation could be at least $15 billion. This would adjust the reasonable share price range to approximately $320–$423.
Thus, Jarsy's current pricing appears high, while PreStocks may present arbitrage opportunities. With 2026 being a major year for global sporting events, Kalshi's annual revenue potential is significant, likely exceeding earlier estimates for competitor Polymarket, which could further drive up its pre-IPO valuation in the future.
比推02/11 15:25
