2026-04-17 Sexta

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Crypto Market Holds Breath Ahead Of FOMC Meeting, Will The Fed Ease Interest Rates?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 18, 2026, is expected to significantly impact the crypto market, as it determines U.S. interest rates. Current predictions from the CME FedWatch Tool indicate a 98.1% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates at the current 3.50-3.75% range, with only a 1.90% chance of a rate cut and a 0% chance of a hike. If rates remain unchanged, the crypto market is likely to experience sideways movement, continuing its current slow trend as investors await more definitive signals. A rate hike typically causes market decline due to conservative investing, while a rate cut often leads to a rally as lower rates encourage risk-taking and increased liquidity. The crypto market, currently valued above $2.49 trillion, remains in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed's decision.

bitcoinist03/16 11:21

Crypto Market Holds Breath Ahead Of FOMC Meeting, Will The Fed Ease Interest Rates?

bitcoinist03/16 11:21

Odaily Interview with Trust Wallet CEO Felix: After 220 Million Downloads, What's Next?

Odaily interviewed Trust Wallet's new CEO, Felix, following the wallet's milestone of over 220 million downloads. The recent launch of the integrated Trade Menu, combining swaps, perpetual contracts, prediction markets, and meme tokens, addresses the need for faster, unified mobile trading experiences. Felix emphasized that the core challenge isn't user acquisition but deepening user engagement and activation. Key priorities for Trust Wallet are security (the non-negotiable foundation), user experience (reducing friction), functional breadth, and multi-chain support. The vision is an "intent-driven user experience" where AI suggests optimal paths for user goals while users retain full control. Trust Wallet's independence allows it to integrate the market's best liquidity, unlike exchange-linked wallets. Felix sees wallets evolving into a unique, AI-powered, self-custodial super-app-like layer for seamless on-chain interactions—a new paradigm beyond Web2 analogs. Leadership change aligns with this growth phase, focusing on rapid execution and product-led expansion.

Odaily星球日报03/16 11:18

Odaily Interview with Trust Wallet CEO Felix: After 220 Million Downloads, What's Next?

Odaily星球日报03/16 11:18

If You Bought One Deep OTM Bitcoin Put Option Every Month Since 2018, Could You Make Money in the Long Run?

Based on a systematic backtest from 2018 to 2026, this study examines the long-term profitability of a monthly strategy of buying one deep out-of-the-money (OTM) put option on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with a target delta of 0.01 and a 30-day expiration. The results are highly divergent. The strategy is not a stable source of profit but a classic, path-dependent tail insurance tool characterized by extreme right skew, very low win rates, and severe drawdowns. For BTC, the strategy yielded a final total return of 97.62% (CAGR: 8.66%), while for ETH, it resulted in a -73.07% loss (CAGR: -14.78%). The performance difference is attributed to BTC's extreme payouts being sufficient to cover the long-term cost of premiums, whereas ETH's were not. Key characteristics of the strategy include: * Extremely low win rates (BTC: 2.04%, ETH: 1.02%). * Catastrophic maximum drawdowns (BTC: -97.24%, ETH: -93.82%). * The median trade return was -100% for both assets. * Profits are driven entirely by a few extreme winning trades, with the top 5 trades contributing over 10x the net profit for BTC. * Notably, not all major market crashes (e.g., March 2020, LUNA, FTX) resulted in profitable positions due to timing and strike price placement. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that a delta of 0.02 offered a more balanced risk-return profile across metrics. The strategy is best suited for investors who can tolerate years of continuous losses, view it as portfolio insurance rather than a primary alpha generator, and seek convexity against extreme downside events. It is not suitable for those seeking stable returns or with low risk tolerance.

marsbit03/16 11:11

If You Bought One Deep OTM Bitcoin Put Option Every Month Since 2018, Could You Make Money in the Long Run?

marsbit03/16 11:11

Mine Owners' New Business: Sitting on Land and Collecting Rent, Earning Billions Annually

The article "Mine Owners' New Business: Collecting Rent, Earning Billions Annually" explores the strategic pivot of Bitcoin mining companies towards AI infrastructure and high-performance computing (HPC) as Bitcoin approaches its supply limit. By 2026, with only 1 million Bitcoin left to mine and rising operational costs squeezing profitability, major mining firms are capitalizing on their existing assets—large-scale power capacity, data centers, and cooling systems—to serve the exploding demand for AI compute. Companies like IREN, Core Scientific, Cipher Digital, and Hut 8 have secured long-term contracts worth tens of billions of dollars with tech giants (Microsoft, Amazon, Google) and AI firms (Anthropic, CoreWeave) to provide GPU cloud services and HPC hosting. Financial reports highlight a stark contrast: while Bitcoin毛利率 have plummeted post-halving, AI-related services boast margins as high as 86%. Firms are rebranding, exiting mining, and leveraging their power infrastructure advantages—deploying AI data centers in months versus years for traditional builders. However, this转型 comes with risks: high debt from infrastructure upgrades, strict contract deadlines, regulatory hurdles, and operational challenges. The shift positions these companies as key "digital power stations" in the AI era, where control over electricity and grid access becomes a critical competitive edge. The period from 2026 to 2028 will be crucial for determining which players succeed in this high-stakes transition.

比推03/16 11:10

Mine Owners' New Business: Sitting on Land and Collecting Rent, Earning Billions Annually

比推03/16 11:10

$25 Billion: Tesla Buys the Lowest-Tier Entry Ticket to the Chip Arms Race

Elon Musk has announced Tesla's plan to invest approximately $25 billion to build a semiconductor superfab named "Terafab," targeting 2nm process technology with a production capacity of 100,000 wafers per month. The move aims to address Tesla's soaring demand for AI chips, driven by its autonomous driving systems, Optimus robots, and upcoming Robotaxi fleet, which existing foundries like TSMC and Samsung cannot fully support. However, the $25 billion budget is considered insufficient by industry standards. For comparison, TSMC’s Arizona fab costs $165 billion, Samsung’s Taylor fab $44 billion, and Intel’s Ohio project $28 billion. A standard 2nm fab with 50,000 wafers/month typically requires around $28 billion, meaning Tesla’s goal is highly ambitious. Tesla’s chip development has been rapid: from HW3 (14nm, 144 TOPS) to AI5 (3/2nm, 2000+ TOPS), with performance multiplying every generation. Its growing reliance on external foundries led to a $16.5 billion long-term deal with Samsung for AI6 production. Terafab represents a natural shift toward self-sufficiency. The project faces significant challenges, including a 3–5 year construction period and additional time for production ramp-up. If Tesla follows industry timelines, Terafab may not be operational until 2029–2030, coinciding with expected mass production of Optimus and Robotaxi. Musk has also hinted at potential collaboration with Intel, which has advanced 18A process capacity. The $25 billion investment buys Tesla a entry ticket into semiconductor manufacturing—but whether it becomes a milestone in vertical integration or an overambitious project remains to be seen.

marsbit03/16 11:06

$25 Billion: Tesla Buys the Lowest-Tier Entry Ticket to the Chip Arms Race

marsbit03/16 11:06

Crypto’s CLARITY Act May Miss 2026 Window Without April Action

Reports indicate the CLARITY Act, a key crypto regulation bill, may miss its 2026 legislative window without committee approval by the end of April. Analysts warn that failure to advance by then could delay passage until 2027 or later. The bill faces significant hurdles, including tight Senate scheduling and deep divisions between banks and crypto firms over stablecoin rewards. Compromise is needed, but lawmakers acknowledge neither side will be fully satisfied. Political priorities and limited floor time further complicate its progress. If delayed, the legislation could extend into the next congressional session or require reworking under new leadership, impacting crypto market structure and stablecoin regulation.

bitcoinist03/16 10:53

Crypto’s CLARITY Act May Miss 2026 Window Without April Action

bitcoinist03/16 10:53

Flipping $200 in ETH into Ozak AI at $0.014 Secures 14,285 Tokens, Worth $71,425 if the Token Hits $5

Early-stage investors are showing interest in Ozak AI ($OZ), an AI-driven intelligence platform at the intersection of AI and blockchain. Currently in Phase 7 of its presale, the token is priced at $0.014. A $200 investment at this stage would secure approximately 14,285 tokens. The project's potential is highlighted by a scenario where, if the token reaches $5 after exchange listings and ecosystem growth, that initial investment could grow to a theoretical value of $71,425. Ozak AI aims to provide predictive analytics and market insights, with its token used for premium features, staking, and governance. The presale has already raised over $6.4 million, reflecting growing confidence. While speculative, the project offers a high-upside opportunity for those entering before wider market adoption.

TheNewsCrypto03/16 10:45

Flipping $200 in ETH into Ozak AI at $0.014 Secures 14,285 Tokens, Worth $71,425 if the Token Hits $5

TheNewsCrypto03/16 10:45

In Just 70 Days, Polymarket Easily Rakes in Tens of Millions in Fees

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has generated over $11.2 million in fees in just 70 days since introducing transaction fees on January 6. Initially applied only to "15-minute crypto up/down" markets, the fee structure charges more when odds are near 50% (up to 1.56%) and less when they approach 0% or 100%. By March 6, fees were expanded to all crypto-related markets. Conservative estimates now project annualized revenue of around $58.4 million. However, weekly fee income has shown consistent growth—rising from $560,000 to $1.84 million in recent weeks—driven by both increased trading volume and the expansion of fee-eligible markets. If fees were extended to all markets, current trading activity suggests Polymarket could achieve approximately $360 million in annual revenue. The platform has also distributed $13.41 million in liquidity provider subsidies, which are likely to be offset by fee revenue this month. Polymarket’s revenue potential hinges on continued trading volume growth and further expansion of fee-based markets, positioning it as a highly profitable model within the crypto industry.

marsbit03/16 10:39

In Just 70 Days, Polymarket Easily Rakes in Tens of Millions in Fees

marsbit03/16 10:39

In Just 70 Days, Polymarket Easily Rakes in Tens of Millions in Fees

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has generated over $11.2 million in fees in just 70 days since introducing transaction fees on January 6. Initially applied only to "15-minute crypto up/down" markets, the fee structure charges more when odds are near 50% (up to 1.56%) and less when they approach 0% or 100%. By March 6, fees were expanded to all crypto-related markets, which now drive most of the revenue. Weekly fee income has shown consistent growth, reaching $1.84 million in a recent week. If current trading volume and structure continue, Polymarket’s annualized revenue is estimated at $58.4 million under a conservative model. A more aggressive projection—assuming fees are applied to all markets—could yield up to $360 million per year. The platform has also distributed $13.41 million in liquidity provider incentives, which March revenue is on track to cover entirely. Polymarket’s revenue potential hinges on two factors: continued growth in trading volume and further expansion of fee-based markets. The platform has effectively proven the profitability of the prediction market model, positioning it as a highly efficient revenue generator in the crypto ecosystem.

Odaily星球日报03/16 10:38

In Just 70 Days, Polymarket Easily Rakes in Tens of Millions in Fees

Odaily星球日报03/16 10:38

Top 3 Political Meme Tokens To Consider

Global political events are increasingly influencing cryptocurrency markets through the rise of "PolitiFi" meme tokens—volatile, hype-driven assets tied to elections and public figures. Three notable examples are gaining attention: Nobel for Trump (N4T), an Ethereum-based token, surged nearly 1,950% on speculation about a potential Nobel Peace Prize nomination for Donald Trump. It holds a $1.65M market cap and may see further movement ahead of the October 2026 announcement. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), inspired by an Elon Musk proposal, is down 89% year-to-date but shows renewed trading activity, with a current market cap of $1.9M. Jeo Boden (BODEN), a Solana-based parody of Joe Biden, has fallen over 99% from its peak but maintains a core community. Its market cap is around $561,000, with occasional interest spikes during political events. These tokens are highly speculative and respond sharply to headlines and social media trends, offering high risk and potential reward for traders.

TheNewsCrypto03/16 10:30

Top 3 Political Meme Tokens To Consider

TheNewsCrypto03/16 10:30

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