How Long Will the Storage Boom Last?
Title: "How Long Can the Memory Boom Last?" (Author: Takashi Yunoue)
Summary: The semiconductor industry, especially the memory market, is experiencing an unprecedented, explosive boom. Data (WSTS, 1991-2026) shows that while other categories like micros, logic, and analog grew steadily, memory shipments, particularly DRAM and NAND flash, have seen a near-vertical spike since 2024. Monthly memory shipments surged from ~$5.6B in 2016 to ~$63.3B in 2026, an 11x increase, with year-on-year growth reaching a staggering 285%. This dwarfs the previous peak of ~60% during the 2017-2018 memory bubble.
The primary driver is not volume but a ~10x price surge for both DRAM and NAND, fueled by insatiable demand from AI data centers. Hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are making massive capital investments (projected at $755B in 2026, ~36x growth since 2015), creating a "black hole" that absorbs GPUs, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), and high-performance storage. This has diverted production capacity, causing severe shortages and price hikes for memory in consumer electronics (PCs, smartphones).
While forecasts now predict the global semiconductor market will hit $1.5 trillion in 2026 and memory alone may surpass $1 trillion by 2027, the author warns this boom is unsustainable. Historical analysis of memory market growth rates over 35 years shows that periods of sustained annual growth have never exceeded five consecutive years, inevitably followed by a downturn due to the "silicon cycle" (demand surge → price rise → overinvestment → oversupply → price crash). Given the current boom started from a low in 2023/2024, a peak is expected by 2027-2028 at the latest. Furthermore, a fundamental rule applies: "The higher the peak, the deeper the valley." The unprecedented 285% growth peak suggests the subsequent recession could be the most severe in industry history. The author cautions that the current soaring stock prices and wealth creation in the memory sector are based on inflated expectations and urges companies to use this prosperous period to prepare practically for the inevitable downturn.
marsbit07/14 21:20
