When Faith Becomes a Cage: The Sunk Cost Trap in the Crypto Era
In the crypto era, the "sunk cost trap" describes how past investments—whether in skills, relationships, or digital assets—can become psychological prisons that prevent people from moving on, even when they know their current path is no longer beneficial. The author reflects on personal experiences in poker and crypto, noting how early beliefs in Bitcoin and smart contracts have now materialized (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption), yet many remain stuck due to emotional or financial commitments.
The article categorizes crypto believers into four camps: Bitcoin-only (Green), crypto-but-not-Bitcoin (Red), both (Brown), and neither (White), each split into (a) those who still see upside and (b) those who don’t. Only true believers (e.g., Red (a)) should fully commit time and resources; others should diversify or plan exits. As crypto becomes mainstream (e.g., Robinhood using Arbitrum), opportunities may lie elsewhere (e.g., equities, AI). The key is to avoid mistaking sunk costs for future potential and to cultivate skills beyond crypto for a softer landing. Freedom requires courage to walk away from the "cave" of past investments.
深潮12/12 10:01
