熊市已经结束，新的牛市周期已经开始

marsbitPublicado em 2026-08-21Última atualização em 2026-08-21

Resumo

近日，比特币市场在三天内经历剧烈上涨，价格从约64,100美元急速攀升至接近79,500美元，涨幅超20%，市场情绪由恐慌转向贪婪。此轮上涨伴随大规模空头轧空，全网爆仓额一度突破40亿美元，创下2021年以来纪录。比特币市值超越Meta，全球资产排名升至第13位。以太坊、瑞波币等主流山寨币也显著上涨，山寨币总市值重回1万亿美元。 上涨受多重因素推动：宏观层面，美国财政部宣布扩大长期国债回购规模，释放流动性信号；监管方面，特朗普政府召集加密行业领袖，推动《CLARITY法案》，美国SEC与CFTC也释放了积极的监管框架信号。市场结构上，大量积压的空头仓位被强制平仓，加剧了价格上涨。 链上数据显示，部分巨鲸在高位套现或反手做空，但也有巨鲸选择加仓多单，市场分歧明显。分析师观点分化：乐观者认为这是熊市结束、新牛市开始的确认，机构资金流入潜力巨大，并有分析师给出高达200万美元的长期目标价；谨慎者则指出市场短期超买，需观察能否站稳关键阻力位，并警惕9月法案投票前可能出现的波动。 未来市场关注点包括：比特币现货ETF能否持续净流入；价格能否有效突破78,000-80,000美元阻力区；以及9月15日美国参议院对《CLARITY法案》的投票结果。

撰文: angelilu , Foresight News

三天,仅仅三天。

比特币从 8 月 19 日的 64100 美元低点,像被点燃的火箭一样,8 月 21 日急速蹿升至 79500 美元(本文发布时, BTC 高点为 75720,数据已更新)—— 三天涨超 20%。

就在几天前,市场还深陷「熊市」的泥潭里,从恐慌(指数 46)到贪婪(指数 72),只隔了三根阳线。

市场波动背后的真实数字触目惊心,据 CoinAnk 数据,加密资产全网爆仓金额一度突破 40 亿美元,其中空头独占 37 亿美元,创下 2021 年以来最惨烈的轧空纪录。

比特币市值暂报 1.5 万亿美元,超越 Meta 的 1.39 万亿美元,全球资产市值排名升至第 13 位。比特币现货 ETF 昨日总净流入 6.06 亿美元,持续 4 日净流入。

山寨币总市值时隔近一个月重回 1 万亿美元, ETH 、 XRP 等币种表现亮眼:

ETH 单日一度上涨 18%,周涨幅 25%,现报 2361 美元,创两个多月新高;

XRP 24 小时涨 20%,周涨 31%,现报 1.3 美元,单日市值增加约 100 亿美元;

HYPE 周涨 15%,最高触及 75 美元,逼近 76.85 美元的历史高点;

SOL 短时突破 90 美元,周涨近 15%。

对数字资产财库公司而言,这轮上涨更是直接改变了账面命运。截至 8 月 16 日, Strategy 持有 840447 枚 BTC ,成本均价 75385 美元,随着 BTC 上涨,这家全球最大的上市比特币持仓方刚刚解套回本。

为什么涨

狂欢来得如此迅猛,以至于每个人都在问同一个问题:熊市,真的结束了吗?

这轮暴涨并非无缘无故。宏观上,8 月 19 日,美国财政部宣布将长期国债回购规模至少翻倍,从每次 20 亿美元提高到 40 亿美元,30 年期美债收益率应声从 5.337% 跌至 5.187%,美元指数跌破 99——流动性闸门松动的信号。

同一天,特朗普在白宫召集加密行业一众大佬,从 Coinbase 的 Brian Armstrong 到 Ripple 的 Brad Garlinghouse ,并当场敦促参议院推动 CLARITY Act 法案,还放话说美国正考虑购入「可观数量」的比特币储备。

而在之前一日 8 月 18 日,美 SEC 刚刚抛出新的监管框架提案,给合规路径松了松土。

8 月 21 日,美国监管动作还在继续,持续放出利好, CFTC 主席 Michael Selig 在该机构创新咨询委员会的首次会议上,撂下了更硬的一句:如果 CLARITY 法案「因为民主党的阻挠继续停滞, CFTC 将动用现有权限,着手为加密资产市场建立一套制度」。

他表示已指示工作人员开始研究规则,用现有职权把加密市场结构固定下来,覆盖加密交易所、杠杆与保证金交易,以及链上金融协议开发者的合规路径。

巨鲸真金白银在博弈

这次暴涨还伴随着一场血腥的空头挤压,大量空头仓位被强制平仓同时也是此次上涨的市场结构因素。

比特币自 7 月 8 日起,长期在 62000 至 66900 美元的狭小区间内苟延残喘,空头们积压了六周的自信在行情上涨中被击穿。

据 Lookonchain 数据,三个损失最大的做空清算地址规模都以亿计, 0x8 c96 开头的地址被平掉 1829 枚 BTC ,约 1.2 亿美元; pension - usdt . eth ,49808 枚 ETH 被平仓,约 1.11 亿美元; 0x8 eff 开头的地址被平掉 1343 枚 BTC ,约 9256 万美元。

最典型的牺牲品,是中文社区赫赫有名的巨鲸「先定 10 个大目标」。8 月 19 日,他刚靠一笔多单赚走 2000 万美元,转头就在高位反手做空,开出合计 2.22 亿美元的 BTC 和 ETH 空单。行情上冲后,8 月 20 日他被迫清仓,回吐 628 万美元。

但他没有收手。8 月 21 日,他迎头而上,再次开空——合计开出约 1790 万美元的 BTC 和 ETH 空单, BTC 开仓均价为 74506.57 美元, ETH 的开仓均价 2346.83 美元。

在暴涨中,有巨鲸选择高位套现也有巨鲸选择高位加仓做空:两个巨鲸地址卖出 5250 枚 ETH 和 550 枚 BTC ,获利 626 万美元;另一个曾累计做多 12 万枚 ETH 的地址则反向加仓,两个钱包合计持有 1.82 亿美元多头头寸,开仓均价约 2265 美元。

分析师们怎么看

链上的爆仓与加减仓记录,勾勒出了这轮行情的微观战场——空头被屠戮,多头出现分歧,有人跑路有人加注。但这些碎片化的个体行为,拼在一起指向什么?分析师们怎么看?

乐观派底气十足。 Bitwise 研究分析师 Ishmael Asad 表示,他会把这次行情视作「迄今为止底部已经出现的最强确认」,机构配置才刚刚起步,长期资金流入潜力仍在。

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong 放话,「我们很有可能正处在下一轮加密现货交易牛市的前夜」;

交易员 mignolet 公开纠错,称自 2025 年 8 月以来从未表达过看多观点,但现在承认此前判断错误。当前反弹可能持续更久,不再预期轻易破位下行。宣布从现在起转为看多比特币,并停止做空。

CryptoQuant 创始人 Ki Young Ju 表示,现货与永续合约需求同步转正,这是自 2025 年 10 月历史高点以来的第一次。熊市已经结束,新的牛市周期已经开始。

机构方面,渣打银行数字资产研究主管 Geoff Kendrick 给出年底 10 万美元的目标, Risk Dimensions 首席投资官 Mark Connors 甚至喊出 BTC2030 年到 18 万美元至 36 万美元。

被誉为「英伟达女王」的分析师 Beth Kindig 发文称, I / O 基金将比特币的长期目标价从 100 万美元上调至 200 万美元。

但也有分析师提醒别急着追高, Smart Money 称这波反弹并非触底反弹,而是围绕 9 月 CLARITY Act 投票的「陷阱」,在支撑位反弹,正在吸引空头头寸并清空杠杆账户。4 小时 RSI 指标为 92.6,昨天早上是 82.8,处于超买区间,建议暂不追高,观察是否守住 73,244 美元。

交易员 Peter DiCarlo 认为长多短空,其表示比特币再往上看 8 万。长期我依然看多,认为 12 到 18 个月内会创出历史新高,但内部结构目前仍然是偏空的。价格正在推入短期的「聪明钱区间」阻力位。要让内部结构发生转变,必须看到有效突破 8.5 万美元。

下一个关键日期:9 月 15 日

三天时间,比特币几乎收复了近两个月的下跌。空头仓位被大幅清空之后,真正的考验才刚刚开始——接力的必须是持续的真实买盘。

接下来市场将重点验证几件事:现货比特币 ETF 净流入能否连续保持正值;价格能否有效突破并站稳 78000–80000 美元这一重要阻力带;能否继续上攻全体活跃投资者的平均成本线(约 75800 美元);以及 9 月 15 日美国参议院对《 CLARITY Act 》的投票结果。

Perguntas relacionadas

Q根据文章所述，比特币价格在三天内经历了怎样的变化？

A比特币价格从8月19日的64100美元低点，急速上涨至8月21日的79500美元，三天内涨幅超过20%。

Q文章中提到了哪些导致加密货币市场近期上涨的宏观和监管原因？

A宏观上，美国财政部宣布将长期国债回购规模至少翻倍，释放了流动性宽松信号。监管方面，美国总统特朗普召集加密行业领袖并敦促推动CLARITY法案，美SEC和CFTC也释放了新的监管框架或制度建立信号，营造了利好氛围。

Q这轮上涨中，巨鲸“先定10个大目标”的交易行为有何特点？

A该巨鲸在8月19日通过多单获利2000万美元后，在高位反手做空，结果亏损628万美元。但他并未收手，于8月21日再次开立了总额约1790万美元的BTC和ETH空单，展现了高风险偏好和高位做空的交易策略。

Q分析师和机构对于这次行情和比特币未来走势的主要观点有哪些？

A乐观派如Bitwise分析师认为这是底部确认信号，Coinbase CEO认为可能处在新牛市前夜，CryptoQuant创始人宣布熊市结束。机构方面，渣打银行给出年底10万美元目标，有分析师甚至上调长期目标价至200万美元。但也存在谨慎观点，认为当前存在超买风险，建议观察关键阻力位是否能有效突破。

Q文章中提到市场的下一个关键日期和需要验证的事件是什么？

A下一个关键日期是9月15日，美国参议院将对《CLARITY Act》进行投票。市场需要验证的事件包括：现货比特币ETF净流入能否持续为正；价格能否有效突破并站稳78000-80000美元阻力带；以及能否继续上攻全体活跃投资者的平均成本线（约75800美元）。

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