Nansen二季度NFT指数报告：市场整体复苏，蓝筹NFT领涨

NansenPublicado em 2022-08-18Última atualização em 2022-08-18

Resumo

通过 Nansen NFT 指数方法，跟踪以 ETH 币计价的不同类别 NFT 的表现。

Nansen 构建了六个指数，它们是差异化的一篮子的 NFT 项目方，跟踪以 ETH 币计价的不同类别 NFT 的表现。 在本报告中，Nansen 分析 NFT 指数时出现了四个关键洞见：

1. 蓝筹 NFT 项目引领了 6 月开始的价格反弹，但没有足够证据证明这种反弹趋势可持续。

2. 以太坊上的每月复购 NFT 和首次购买者 NFT 的分析显示，NFT 的市场买卖持续增长，突显了 NFT 整体行业的发展。

3. 最近对蓝筹 NFT 头部 10 (Blue Chip-10 index) 进行了指数再平衡，Chromie Squiggle 首次被纳入蓝筹指数，Meebits 作为重新回到头部 10。

4. 生成艺术 NFT 在 6 月表现出最好市场增长。

图 1: Nansen NFT 指数季度表现

图 2: Nansen NFT 指数表现 (Year-to-date, ending in Q2)

1. 蓝筹 NFT 项目引领了 6 月开始的价格反弹

Q2 季度的市场叙事是，我们正在从宏观周期中通胀和利率上升冲击转变为衰退冲击。 尽管 6 月的最后一周在加密市场中出现了熊市反弹，但这种上升趋势似乎在 NFT 市场更早开始。 除 2022 年第二季度末的游戏 NFT 外，所有非同质代币 (NFT) 行业在 6 月均录得反弹（以 ETH 衡量）。

特别是 Blue Chip-10 (ETH) 指数的走势显示，早在 2022 年 6 月 5 日，蓝筹 NFT 就引领了这一上升趋势。蓝筹 10 指数在第二季度末上涨了 23.6%，领先于 NFT 市场。 仅在 6 月，蓝筹 10 指数就报告了 30 天的 17.9% 的涨幅（见图 1 和图 2）。 流入蓝筹 NFT 的资金突显了 NFT 市场参与者持续的「避险」情绪。

2. Chromie Squiggle 首次被纳入蓝筹指数，Meebits 重回蓝筹 10 指数

在蓝筹 -10 指数的季度末再平衡中，Chromie Squiggle（Art Blocks Curated NFT）首次被添加到蓝筹 -10 指数中，而 Meebits 回归蓝筹 -10 指数。 Chromie Squiggle 和 Meebits 在 蓝筹 -10 指数中取代了 NFT World 和 World of Women。

第二季度末 Meebits NFT 的估计底价约为 4.5 ETH，聪明的 Smart NFT 买家在 6 月 19 日至 25 日期间购买了 NFT（见图 3）。 尽管在此期间 Meebits 交易和独立买家数量略有增加，但与第一季度相比，交易活动仍然很低（见图 4）。

NFT God Mode - Meebits Transactions

在 2022 年第二季度末，Chromie Squiggle NFT 的估计地板价约为 8.5 ETH，交易量稳定，Smart NFT 买家的买入量很大（见图 5）。 6 月 21 日，处理了 50 笔 Chromie Squiggle NFT 交易，涉及 41 位独立买家（见图 6）。

图 5: NFT God Mode - Chromie Squiggle Transactions

图 6: NFT God Mode - Chromie Squiggle Transactions and Buyers

3. 生成艺术 NFT 在 6 月表现出最好市场增长

Art-20 指数 (ETH) 的表现与 Chrome Squiggle 符合蓝筹 -10 指数标准的现象一致。 Art-20 指数 (ETH) 在 6 月份表现出最大的复苏，涨幅为 33.1%。 在第二季度末，生成 Generative Art NFT 占该指数中与艺术相关的 NFT 的大部分（市值占 92%，见图 7）。

图 7: Art-20 Index (ETH) 根据市值加权

在 Q2 季度持续展示的一个值得注意的 Art NFT 收藏是 Damien Hirst 的 The Currency。 Q2 季度末，The Currency 的交易价格为 7.69 ETH。 该系列于 2016 年从实物艺术开始，探索艺术与货币之间的界限。 The Currency 的市场参与者获得了 NFT 艺术品，他们选择持有艺术品的标记化（数字）形式或实物艺术品。

图 8: NFT God Mode - The Currency’s Price and Volume

市场解读

在最近 Q2 季度末的再平衡中，只有 306 个 NFT 项目方符合纳入 Nansen NFT 指数方法的设定流动性要求。这一特征暗示这种上升趋势可能不会持续。 NFT-500 (ETH) 指数的这些特征反映了广泛的 NFT 市场，6 月份的交易量、交易数量和用户数量等交易活动仍然很低（见图 9a、b 和 c）。然而，值得注意的是，对 ETH 上 NFT 的每月复购者和首次购买者的分析显示，6 月份复购者的强劲复苏，并且对于 NFT 的首次购买者而言保持相对稳定（见图 10）。最近的 Free Mint 事件可能会为买家的复苏提供一种解释。需要注意的是，当一个人连接他们的钱包进行交易时，他们的钱包存在风险；尤其是在合同未知的情况下。因此，在铸造之前检查合同很重要。在第二季度表现良好的一些著名的 Free Mint 包括 GoblinTown 和 Moonrunners。

图 9a: Nansen NFT 月度交易量

图 9b: Nansen NFT 交易数量

图 9c:NFT 月度用户数分类

Figure 10: Nansen NFT Trends: 复购 vs 首次购买 NFT 买家 ( 月度 )

对 NFT-500 (ETH) 指数更新构成的分析表明，社交 NFT 的权重按市值 (ETH) 增加。 相比之下，游戏 NFT 在指数中的权重下降（见图 11）。 在衡量在 NFT-500 (ETH) 指数内交易 NFT 收藏品的买家到卖家钱包的情况下，我们看到该比率在 2022 年 5 月末有所下降，这意味着买家减少而卖家增加。 不过，这一比例在 6 月份略有回升，并保持相对稳定（见图 12）。

图 11: Nansen NFT-500 (ETH) 市值分类

图 12: Nansen NFT-500 (ETH) 买家跟卖家的比率

在 2022 年第一季度，Nansen NFT-500 (ETH) 的每日波动率为 2.4%。 然而，当我们将分析扩展到第二季度的数据时，这种波动性增加了（见图 13）。 几乎所有 NFT 指数（Blue Chip-10、Social-100、Game-50 和 Metaverse-20）都显示波动性增加，与大盘一致，但 Art-20 指数除外，该指数在 艺术 NFT 的波动性。 各个 NFT 板块的波动性仍有很大差异，继续观察 2022 年 Q1 季度的情况。此外，根据我们之前的季度报告的洞察，元宇宙 NFT 行业仍然是波动性最大的。

图 13: Daily Volatility of different NFT 板块

结论

2022 年 Q2 季度见证了加密市场的大起大落，例如 Celsius 暂停提款和宣布债务重组计划以及三箭资本的爆仓困境。 在以太坊 (ETH) DeFi 领域，我们正在目睹一场戏剧性的去杠杆化事件，相当大的投资者实现了历史性的重大损失。 Nansen NFT 指数（ETH）显示，NFT 的趋势逆转开始于广泛的加密货币市场。 NFT 市场的「避险」情绪仍然非常明显，NFT 市场有限的流动性暗示这种上升趋势可能不会持续。 但是，以太坊主网上 NFT 的每月复购用户和首次购买者的分析显示， NFT 的市场参与者持续增长，突显了 NFT 行业的持续发展。

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