1、 BTC interval increase space confirmation
BTC's daily K-line chart was hourly, and there were continuous signs of adjustment during the price rebound. The highest rebound this time was $24276. From the perspective of volume and price performance, BTC still maintains the state of volume trading, but the increase has reached the position above the center of the range. That is to say, from $17246 corresponding to 78.6% of Fibonacci to $28308 corresponding to 61.8% of Fibonacci, of which the pivot price is around $23000.
BTC's rebound may end after the short-term obstruction of the brin online track, the recent increase in major changes and the profit flight of short-term investors.
2. BTC short-term investors profit flight
From the SOPR index of short-term investors, the SOPR ratio on July 20 reached 1.015, indicating that investors in short-term and medium-term transactions have obviously gained income. On July 18, the SOPR index value was 1.0058, which was also higher than 1, indicating that investors sold BTC profitably on July 18 and July 20, indicating that the short-term rebound may have encountered greater resistance. Combined with the fact that the transfer of Jujing has increased, we can focus on the adjustment signal next.
3. Clearance of giant whale
The clearance action of giant whale is not frequent, but when encountering special points, the increase of trading means that the energy of market change is enhanced. Judging from the market performance, giant whale has shown signs of position adjustment. The number of giant whales with addresses beginning with 1p5ze reached 132882 BTCs on July 18, with a market value of $2.98 billion based on the closing price of $22432 on that day. Although the number is amazing, the speed of clearance is also surprising.
The clearance process of the giant whale began on July 19, and its large-scale clearance process lasted until July 21.
In the change of the account balance of the giant whale at the beginning of 1p5ze, it can be seen that it fell to 117382 BTCs before the end of July 19. At the end of July 20, the number of banknotes decreased to 71381 BTCs. By 11:39 on July 21, the account balance had been cleared.
From the perspective of currency holding cycle, the giant whale has entered the market since February 2019, and the number of coins held has continuously increased from the initial 10000 BTCs to more than 130000. The process of increasing the number of BTC holdings is relatively slow, so the average cost price of holding money is easier to estimate.
The 76000 BTCs in the number of coins held at this address will be completed before December 18, 2021. The cost price of this part of BTC is lower than 23000 US dollars. It is estimated that the holding cost of 76000 BTCs is much lower than US $9000.
After December 18, 2021, the holding cost of this account will increase, which is higher than the current BTC of $23000. On the whole, the profit margin of this account is large, and it is estimated that the overall profit margin is close to 50%. As the holding time of the giant whale investor is more than 3 years, it belongs to the position adjustment of long-term investors.
4. Eth continuous adjustment signal
In terms of the daily K-line, ETH showed a reversal signal of continuous pullback. Recently, ETH has a large rebound space, with a cumulative increase of nearly 100%. The price began to adjust at the upper limit of the range shock, which is in line with investors' trading habits. On the brin line, after the ETH price hit the brin online track, it is already the third trading day in the state of adjustment. Considering that there are many chips under the low price range of $1600 in eth, the price is more likely to fluctuate within the range.
