Снижение ставки ФРС и завершение программы QT создают благоприятные условия для криптовалют в 2026 году

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2025-01-03Última atualização em 2025-12-04

Delphi Digital считает, что ещё рано. В своём последнем прогнозе исследовательская компания заявила, что к 2026 году Федеральная резервная система перестанет оказывать сдерживающее влияние на криптовалюту и станет для неё лёгким попутным ветром. Снижение ставок и постепенное сворачивание программы количественного ужесточения (QT) создают первый с начала 2022 года явно позитивный фон ликвидности.

Может ли снижение процентных ставок стать ключевым фактором роста криптовалют в 2026 году?

Курс ФРС на следующий год предельно ясен, как никогда за последние годы. В декабре 2025 года ожидается ещё одно снижение на 25 базисных пунктов, в результате чего ставка по федеральным фондам составит примерно 3,5–3,75 %. Форвардная кривая предполагает как минимум ещё три снижения в 2026 году… pic.twitter.com/ysFcp3zWOF

— Delphi Digital (@Delphi_Digital) 4 декабря 2025 г.

Рынки уже закладывают в цены этот сдвиг. Фьючерсы предполагают снижение ставки еще на 25 базисных пунктов в декабре 2025 года. Это приведет к снижению ставки по федеральным фондам примерно до 3,5–3,75 %. Исходя из этого, форвардная кривая предполагает еще как минимум три снижения в 2026 году. Таким образом, к концу года процентные ставки окажутся в диапазоне ниже 3 %, если тенденция сохранится. Delphi подчеркивает, что это не внезапный «разворот». Это больше похоже на контролируемый отход от агрессивного цикла ужесточения, который определял ситуацию в 2022–2024 годах.

QT завершается, TGA переворачивается, а RRP пуст — ликвидность наконец-то становится положительной

Снижение ставок — это только половина истории. Delphi Digital указывает на закулисные махинации. Теперь несколько рычагов одновременно работают в пользу криптовалют. С 1 декабря QT фактически завершается, что замедляет темпы, с которыми ФРС выкачивает ликвидность из системы

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