Почему биткоин падает после решения ФРС по ставке

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2025-04-29Última atualização em 2025-10-30

Вечером 29 октября 2025 года Федеральная резервная система США снизила ставку на 0,25% — до диапазона 3,75–4% — и объявила о завершении программы количественного ужесточения с 1 декабря. Решение совпало с прогнозами рынка

Несмотря на позитивные ожидания, биткоин отреагировал на новость падением. Рассказываем, почему так вышло.

Как купить биткоин с карты: инструкция

Что происходит с биткоином

Биткоин начал снижаться на фоне решения ФРС о снижении ставки. В моменте криптовалюта упала до уровня $108 000, на котором BTC в последний раз находился 23 октября 2025 года. Глубина снижения за несколько часов достигла почти 3,5%. На момент написания обзора, биткоин торгуется по $108 761.

реакция биткоина на решение ФРС
График биткоина. Источник: TradingView

Читайте также: Кто придумал биткоин и что такое криптовалюта простыми словами

На фоне падения биткоина индекс страха и жадности опустился до 34 пунктов. Еще вчера он находился на уровне 51. Изменения говорят об усилении страха среди биткоин-инвесторов и снижении готовности участников рынка рисковать ради покупки BTC.

Индекс страха и жадности биткоина. Источник: alternative.me

Почему криптовалюта падает

Многие аналитики и участники рынка предполагали, что биткоин вырастет после заседания ФРС, потому что снижение ставок обычно поддерживает интерес к рисковым активам, включая криптовалюты. Завершение программы количественного ужесточения воспринимают как сигнал возможного увеличения ликвидности. Кроме того, ноябрь традиционно считается удачным месяцем для биткоина. Инвесторы рассчитывали, что смягчение политики создаст условия для движения к новым историческим максимумам. К сожалению, этого не произошло.

Вот основные причины падения биткоина:

  • Решение уже было учтено рынком. Снижение ставки ожидалось заранее, поэтому новость не привела к новому притоку капитала.
  • Неопределенность внутри ФРС. Комментарии Джерома Пауэлла показали, что среди членов Комитета нет единого мнения по поводу дальнейших шагов, и инвесторы восприняли это как сигнал, что политика смягчения может продвигаться медленнее, чем ждут.
  • Слабые экономические ожидания. Рынок насторожен из-за признаков охлаждения рынка труда, роста цен и торговых споров с Китаем.
  • Сомнения в росте ликвидности. Хотя ФРС прекращает сокращение баланса, участники рынка не ждут быстрого притока денег в рисковые активы.
  • Фиксация прибыли. После недавнего роста BTC до $116 400 часть инвесторов решила зафиксировать прибыль, что усилило падение.

Чего дальше ждать от биткоина

Положение BTC по просьбе редакции BeInCrypto прокомментировал Ян Пинчук, заместитель начальника отдела биржевой торговли WhiteBird.

В целом прогноз позитивный. На выходных стало известно, что американская и китайская переговорные группы согласовали структуру торгового соглашения, и на предстоящей неделе Трамп и Си Цзиньпин подпишут документ. На этом фоне рынки вернулись в состояние риск-он.

Еще одним испытанием может стать конец этой недели, свои финансовые отчеты опубликуют компании из так называемой «великолепной семерки», которые составляют около 50% индекса Nasdaq. А поскольку биткоин обладает высокой корреляцией с этим индексом, можно ожидать, что хорошие отчеты поддержат и крипторынок.

Поэтому я бы сказал так: если отчеты выйдут сильными, а это очень вероятно, и рынки удержатся на текущих уровнях к началу ноября, у нас есть все шансы увидеть позитивный для биткоина ноябрь.

Мы еще в начале года указывали, что цель по биткоину в этом цикле — около $130 тыс., и пока все, что происходит на рынке, подтверждает этот таргет.

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