Wintermute Predicts Cleaner Positioning to Lift Crypto in November

TheCryptoTimesPublicado em 2025-10-29Última atualização em 2025-10-29

Crypto markets are regaining strength as cleaner positioning and rising liquidity create a solid base for renewed upside in November, according to Wintermute, a renowned crypto trading and market making firm. 

In its latest article, published on X, the market maker believes that Softer U.S. inflation data and improving U.S.–China relations have reignited risk appetite across global markets. 

Bitcoin reclaims $115K

Bitcoin reclaimed $115,000 after strong ETF inflows and a sharp short squeeze, signaling a clear return of investor confidence. The rebound follows weeks of volatility triggered by global uncertainty and rate concerns. However, easing treasury yields and renewed optimism around the upcoming Trump–Xi summit in Seoul have restored a positive market tone. 

Wintermute said Bitcoin’s 5.3% weekly rise came after $160 million in shorts were liquidated, marking one of the most aggressive squeezes this month. Ethereum also climbed toward $4,200, while gold slipped 7% as capital rotated from defensive assets into crypto and equities.

Cross-Asset PerformanceCross-Asset Performance
Cross-asset Performance, Source: Wintermute (X)

Broader rotation across sectors

Apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum, investors also shifted toward DeFi and AI-related tokens. Wintermute said the move came as these projects showed stronger earnings and more activity on their networks. Utility and infrastructure tokens also drew interest, helped by new Layer-2 launches and restaking projects that pulled in fresh liquidity. 

Funding rates turned positive across major perpetual markets, indicating sidelined capital is returning. Stablecoin supply also began to rise for the first time since September, a clear signal that fresh inflows are building. ETF flows remained steady throughout the week, reinforcing structural demand for Bitcoin and supporting a healthier derivatives market.

Quarterly Relative PerformanceQuarterly Relative Performance
Quarterly Relative Performance, Source: Wintermute (X)

Market confidence rebuilding after October turmoil

Two weeks earlier, Wintermute temporarily halted trading during a flash crash that erased $19 billion from the crypto market. The firm clarified it did so because its internal trading rules were breached amid the chaos. 

Evgeny Gaevoy, the CEO of Wintermute, dismissed rumors that the crash had “collapsed” the company, stating it was “business as usual” and that Wintermute was “perfectly fine.”

As macro headwinds fade, investors appear ready to rotate back into crypto. Factors like cooling inflation, improved diplomacy, and an expected Fed pivot are driving optimism. Hence, Wintermute believes the setup heading into November and Q4 remains constructive, with cleaner leverage and calmer volatility supporting continued risk-on momentum.

Also Read: Australia Expands Oversight to Stablecoins and Wrapped Tokens

Mobile Only ImageMobile Only Image

Leituras Relacionadas

BONK Crypto Treasury Company Has Only $2.14 Million Cash Left, 70% of Revenue Comes from Founder's Own Platform

BONK Inc. (BNKK), the NASDAQ-listed company associated with the Solana meme coin BONK, reported stark financials for the first half of the year. While revenue skyrocketed 6,218% year-over-year to $5.5 million, the company posted a net loss of $7.88 million and its cash reserves plummeted to just $214,000. Its auditors issued a "going concern" warning, citing cumulative losses of $191.4 million, negative operating cash flow, and critically low liquidity. A critical detail is that $3.92 million, or 71%, of its revenue came from an "affiliate revenue share" with LetsBonk.fun, a meme coin launchpad. This platform is linked to founder Mitchell Rudy, whose entity, Lucky Dog Holdings, beneficially owns approximately 40.2% of common stock and all C Series preferred shares. These preferred shares grant the holder the right to elect half of the company's board. The company's financial structure is further intertwined with Rudy; it sold $50 million worth of stock to his entities, accepting payment in BONK tokens. Fluctuations in the value of these and other held digital assets led to an $8.17 million unrealized loss, the primary driver of the net loss. With operating cash outflows of $4.17 million for the half-year, the remaining cash covers roughly nine days of operations at the current burn rate, highlighting severe financial strain despite top-line growth.

marsbitHá 12m

BONK Crypto Treasury Company Has Only $2.14 Million Cash Left, 70% of Revenue Comes from Founder's Own Platform

marsbitHá 12m

CryptoQuant Noted a Signal of a Bitcoin Reversal

CryptoQuant has highlighted a potential reversal signal for Bitcoin, suggesting the bearish phase might be nearing its end as on-chain metrics show initial signs of spot demand recovery. Their analysis indicates that the 30-day spot demand metric has recovered from -206,000 BTC in late July to approximately -5,000, close to turning positive for the first time since February 2026. Historically, such a reversal has been followed by a median 60-day price gain of 18.1%, with a win rate of 78% (increasing to 87% when valuations are depressed). However, they caution that this is a favorable sign, not a guarantee. Analysts from Bitfinex Alpha note that two of three conditions for a sustainable Bitcoin recovery are already met: improved Federal Reserve rate expectations and relatively accommodative financial conditions, thanks to easing inflation and reduced odds of a near-term rate hike. The missing third catalyst is a capital rotation from traditional markets (like stocks and AI infrastructure) into cryptocurrencies. If this occurs, Bitcoin could reclaim $70,000. Conversely, continued negative flows might see support tested around $57,000. Current headwinds include significant weekly outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs (roughly $385 million) and reduced stablecoin supply. Wintermute offers a more cautious outlook, pointing to the same large ETF outflows and ongoing miner selling pressure. They note that Bitcoin has failed to rally despite the improved Fed outlook, which is typically bullish for risk assets. As an example, they cite miner Riot Platforms, which sold a substantial portion of its Bitcoin reserves in Q2 as its mining cost (~$91,000 per BTC) remains far above the current market price, forcing sales for liquidity. This combination of ETF outflows and miner selling is suppressing new demand.

cryptonews.ruHá 13m

CryptoQuant Noted a Signal of a Bitcoin Reversal

cryptonews.ruHá 13m

Is a Strong Ruble Good? Not for the Budget: Treasury Already Short 1.5 Trillion

The Russian budget has lost about 1.5 trillion rubles in revenue since the start of 2026 due to the ruble being stronger than the government's planned exchange rate. The budget was based on an average annual rate of 92.2 rubles per US dollar, but the actual average for the first seven and a half months was just 76.9 rubles. This discrepancy creates a significant shortfall, as every ruble of appreciation against the dollar reduces annual budget revenues by 140–160 billion rubles. When accounting for oil and gas revenues, the sensitivity is even higher, with potential annual losses reaching up to 2.5 trillion rubles. So far this year, the budget has already missed out on roughly 1.7 trillion rubles. The ruble's exchange rate has shown considerable volatility in 2026, ranging from a low near 71 rubles per dollar in May to over 85 rubles by mid-August. Despite this recent weakening, the year's average remains well below the budget target, creating a structural deficit in oil and gas revenues. Forecasts suggest the final average rate for 2026 will be around 80–82 rubles, which would result in a budget shortfall of about 1.6 trillion rubles. A strong ruble reduces import costs and inflation but also cuts the ruble earnings of exporters and threatens the funding of social obligations. The gap between the planned and actual rate is attributed not only to oil price dynamics but also to the fiscal rule mechanism, which can influence the currency's direction. The Ministry of Finance recently halted foreign currency sales under this rule, removing dollar supply from the market and contributing to pressure on the exchange rate. The budget policy is now forced to adapt to a stronger ruble than originally planned.

cryptonews.ruHá 14m

Is a Strong Ruble Good? Not for the Budget: Treasury Already Short 1.5 Trillion

cryptonews.ruHá 14m

Trade.xyz Captures Over Half of Hyperliquid's Trading Volume with AI Chip Stocks and Crude Oil Perpetual Contracts

**Title:** Trade.xyz Captures Over Half of Hyperliquid's Trading Volume with AI Chip Stocks and Oil Perpetuals **Summary:** Driven by the launch of AI chip stock and oil perpetual contracts, Trade.xyz has become the dominant builder on Hyperliquid following its HIP-3 upgrade, now accounting for over 55% of the platform's trading volume. The HIP-3 proposal shifted market creation from validator votes to a staking and auction model, allowing builders like Trade.xyz to deploy their own perpetual futures markets. Trade.xyz's focus on traditional assets like AI/Compute equities, crude oil, and major indices has attracted significant on-chain trading activity. In the past month alone, it generated approximately $5 million in fees, which are split 50/50 with Hyperliquid. A significant portion of this revenue is used for open-market buybacks of the HYPE token, reducing its circulating supply and creating a direct link between platform activity and token value capture. This growth highlights both the potential for ecosystem concentration around a single major builder and the evolving mechanisms for HYPE's value accrual.

marsbitHá 39m

Trade.xyz Captures Over Half of Hyperliquid's Trading Volume with AI Chip Stocks and Crude Oil Perpetual Contracts

marsbitHá 39m

Robinhood CEO: The Tokenization Wave of U.S. Stocks is Coming, America Must Not Be Left Behind

We are at the early stage of a global supercycle for asset tokenization, a transformative force reshaping finance. Robinhood has actively expanded this frontier outside the US, recently launching Robinhood Chain, a public EVM chain designed for Real World Assets (RWA) and focused on stock tokens. It enables global users to access over 190 US stocks backed 1:1 by underlying securities. However, a key gap remains: these tokenized stocks are not yet available within the United States itself. In the US, the debate around stock tokenization centers on its practical value, given existing low-cost access to equities. Critics question the need, but this misses the core innovation: tokenizing premium financial assets to make them portable, programmable, self-custodied, and tradable 24/7 within an open financial ecosystem. This is more than moving stocks onto a blockchain; it's rebuilding the foundational infrastructure of asset ownership. For US investors, this new infrastructure offers three core advantages: 1. **Real-time clearing and settlement**, enhancing market resilience by eliminating the systemic risks and capital burdens inherent in the traditional T+2/T+1 settlement cycle, as starkly revealed during events like the GameStop volatility. 2. **Native 24/7 trading capability**, allowing all investors to manage risk and react to global news outside standard market hours, a tool previously largely accessible only to institutions. 3. **Greater user control and portability of assets**, enabling instant transfers between platforms and into DeFi. This self-custody model fosters competition among service providers and unlocks new use cases like lending and using tokens as collateral. Realizing these benefits in the US requires more than technology; it necessitates modernizing a century-old securities regulatory framework built for legacy infrastructure. Policymakers must act swiftly to adapt rules for this new paradigm while preserving investor protections. Other jurisdictions are advancing, and the US risks being left behind in shaping the future of asset ownership—a future largely built around American assets and innovation. Tokenizing publicly traded stocks is just the beginning, paving the way for broadening access to other asset classes like private equity. US investors deserve to participate in this innovation.

marsbitHá 49m

Robinhood CEO: The Tokenization Wave of U.S. Stocks is Coming, America Must Not Be Left Behind

marsbitHá 49m

Trading

Spot
活动图片

Categorias popularesright-arrow

Etiquetas Popularesright-arrow