Китай запустил систему расчетов в цифровых юанях в обход SWIFT

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2025-06-26Última atualização em 2025-10-27

Народный банк Китая в марте 2025 года запустил систему трансграничных расчетов на основе цифрового юаня, которая позволяет обходить SWIFT в торговых операциях с 16 странами АСЕАН и Ближнего Востока. Запуск системы прошел без широкой огласки, но охватывает около 38% мировой торговли.

Технологические преимущества новой системы

Платформа mBridge, разработанная совместно с Банком международных расчетов, завершает трансграничные транзакции за 7-8 секунд против 3-5 дней в системе SWIFT. Техническая документация показывает, что комиссии снижены на 98% по сравнению с традиционными банковскими переводами.

Система интегрирована с финансовой инфраструктурой всех 10 стран АСЕАН — Брунея, Вьетнама, Индонезии, Камбоджи, Лаоса, Малайзии, Мьянмы, Филиппин, Сингапура и Таиланда. Также подключены 6 государств Ближнего Востока, включая ОАЭ и Саудовскую Аравию.

Пилотные тесты продемонстрировали впечатляющие результаты. Перевод между Гонконгом и Абу-Даби занимает 7 секунд, а транзакция из Китая в Индонезию — 8 секунд. Исследование показывает, что к системе подключились 23 центральных банка, а общий объем трансграничных платежей превысил 1,2 трлн долларов.

Экономическое влияние на мировую торговлю

Расчеты в юанях с АСЕАН в 2024 году достигли 5,8 трлн юаней, увеличившись на 120% с 2021 года. Таиланд уже провел первую нефтяную сделку в цифровых юанях, а Малайзия и Сингапур начали включать юань в валютные резервы.

На Ближнем Востоке юань используется в 65% нефтяных контрактов. В сделках между Saudi Aramco и Sinopec 65% расчетов осуществляется в юанях, что экономит энерготрейдерам до 75% затрат на комиссии. Саудовская Аравия стала полноправным участником проекта mBridge в 2024 году.

Система поддерживает процесс дедолларизации мировой экономики. Доля доллара в глобальных резервах снизилась до 58% по данным МВФ за 2024 год, в то время как доля юаня в международных платежах выросла до 2,44%. Аналитики отмечают значительный сдвиг в глобальной финансовой архитектуре.

Сомнения экспертов и ограничения

Не все специалисты разделяют оптимизм относительно масштабов проекта. Отдельные источники указывают на возможные преувеличения в данных о 38-40% мировой торговли и ставят под сомнение количество активных участников mBridge.

Критики отмечают риски фрагментации глобальной финансовой системы и волатильность юаня, который упал на 12% в 2025 году. Также существуют ограничения по конвертируемости китайской валюты и регуляторные барьеры в различных юрисдикциях.

Геополитический контекст

Запуск цифрового юаня укрепляет «цифровой Шелковый путь» в рамках инициативы «Один пояс — один путь». Эксперты отмечают интеграцию юаня с инфраструктурными проектами, такими как железная дорога Китай-Лаос.

Для стран под международными санкциями система предоставляет альтернативный канал для международных расчетов. Россия уже использует цифровой юань в 18% торговых операций с Китаем, обходя ограничения SWIFT.

SWIFT остается доминирующей системой глобальных расчетов, обрабатывая операции на 120 млрд долларов ежегодно в виде комиссий. Сравнительный анализ показывает преимущества китайской системы в скорости и стоимости, но SWIFT сохраняет широкую глобальную совместимость.

Цифровой юань не стремится полностью вытеснить доллар из международных расчетов, а создает экономическую зону влияния Китая. Эта зона может охватить страны, на долю которых приходится до 30% мирового ВВП. Новая система работает совместно с китайской платежной системой CIPS 2.0, через которую ежедневно проходит 137 млрд юаней — это внутренние расчеты банков Китая с зарубежными партнерами.

К концу 2025 года страны АСЕАН планируют проводить 90% внутрирегиональной торговли в цифровых юанях. Однако полноценный переход к новой финансовой архитектуре потребует десятилетий и зависит от сохранения глобальной экономической стабильности.

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