Трейдеры, торгующие деривативами на биткоин, делают ставку на дальнейший рост,

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2025-05-02Última atualização em 2025-09-03

Несмотря на макроэкономическую неопределенность и исторически медвежью сезонность сентября, трейдеры деривативов демонстрируют сдержанный оптимизм в отношении краткосрочных перспектив биткоина. За последние два дня цена криптовалюты выросла на 3%, достигнув уровня near $110 000, однако этот рост носит скорее технический, чем фундаментальный характер.

Характер текущего движения
Анализ данных CoinGlass показывает, что рост произошел на фоне стабильных дельт совокупного объема с заметным увеличением пассивных ставок при глубине книги заявок 10%. Это указывает на то, что движение было вызвано не агрессивными покупками, а более осторожным, пассивным накоплением позиций. Открытый интерес по бессрочным контрактам вырос на 2.35%, достигнув $30 миллиардов, что свидетельствует о подготовке трейдеров к потенциальной волатильности вокруг публикации данных о занятости в США в пятницу.

Динамика рынка опционов
Рынок опционов painting несколько иную картину. Как отмечает Шон Доусон, руководитель исследовательского отдела платформы Dervie, наблюдается рост открытого интереса к бычьим страйкам $120 000, $130 000 и $140 000 с экспирацией 26 сентября. Однако из-за длинной гаммы маркет-мейкеров любой значительный рост цены likely будет сдерживаться хеджирующими продажами, а падение — смягчаться вынужденными покупками.

Подразумеваемая волатильность биткоина на следующие 30 дней составляет approximately 30%, что отражает ожидание умеренных ценовых изменений. Однако резкий скачок недельного отклонения 25 дельта с 6.75 до 12 указывает на растущий спрос на защиту от внезапных снижений, подчеркивая сохраняющуюся настороженность инвесторов.

Ключевые факторы риска
Краткосрочная динамика будет largely зависеть от отчета о занятости в несельскохозяйственном секторе, который будет опубликован в пятницу. По мнению Доусона, даже оптимистичные данные, вероятно, лишь ограничат потенциальные потери в сентябре, но не спровоцируют масштабное ралли. Американские инвесторы также продолжают пересматривать позиции в преддверии окончания финансового года 30 сентября, что традиционно создает дополнительное давление на рынок.

Текущая ситуация highlights противоречивые сигналы: технические индикаторы и позиционирование на срочном рынке указывают на сдержанный оптимизм, в то время как макроэкономические риски и сезонные факторы требуют осторожности.

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