Based on historical records, after every Bitcoin (BTC) bull run, a bear market hits, and this cycle may be no different. Analysts forecast that the upcoming bear market may see the price of Bitcoin dropping as low as $25,000. This decline would represent a whopping 77% crash, pushing BTC to a possible market bottom.
Analyst Bitcoin Price Correction To $25,000
Bitcoin has been put in the spotlight again, as its recent price surge has sparked new projections by market analysts. One notable forecast by crypto expert Tony Severino suggests that if history repeats, Bitcoin could see a drawdown between 77% and 84% from its peak.
This implies that BTC may see its price skyrocket to its highest point during this bull cycle. However, after this historic price rally, the cryptocurrency is expected to correct downwards toward the $25,000 to $17,000 range in the next bear market.
Looking at Severino’s price chart, Bitcoin has been mirroring a repeating cycle of euphoric bull runs followed by severe bear market crashes. The chart highlights three major historical corrections that occurred during the last three bull cycles.
In the 2013 to 2015 bear market, BTC hit a price peak and then plunged 86.64% to a bottom, marking the highest crash to date. Similarly, during the 2017 to 2018 bear market, Bitcoin fell 84.04% from its all-time high.
Source: Tony Severino on X Again, from 2021 to 2022, the pioneer cryptocurrency declined 77.57%. This bear market pattern shows that BTC often experiences significant price drawdowns after reaching a final ATH, with each subsequent correction being slightly less severe than the last.
Interestingly, the severity of Bitcoin’s decline in every bear market has decreased by 4% each cycle. Severino has shared his thesis on this analysis, highlighting that instead of a 77% to 84% correction, the cryptocurrency could see a decline of 61.8% to 74% — a less drastic but still significant drop.
Another unique aspect of Severino’s analysis is the influence of the Bitcoin halving event. The year after every halving event, BTC has historically hit an all-time high. Considering that the cryptocurrency hit an ATH before its halving event in 2024 and then another after the US Presidential elections in January 2025, the current market’s trajectory and the analyst’s forecast remain uncertain.
BTC Set For $160,000 ATH Before Crash To $25,000
While Severino shares his bear market prediction of the Bitcoin price to $25,000, the analyst also revealed his projected ATH target for BTC. He forecasts that BTC could reach a market peak target of $160,000 this bull cycle. This surge would mark a 74.1% increase in the Bitcoin price.
As of writing, the pioneer cryptocurrency is trading at $91,880 after recovering slightly from bearish trends and rallying 7.05% in one day, according to CoinMarketCap.
BTC trading at $93,382 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
