超级周期开启，$TRUMP热潮之后的加密市场四点预测

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2025-01-22Última atualização em 2025-01-22

Resumo

市场更加聪明，名人 Memes 掀起热潮，AI 代币王者归来等。

原文作者：Deebs DeFi, 加密 KOL

原文编译：Felix, PANews

特朗普已掌控加密市场。

他拥有价值 150 亿美元的排名第 12 大代币。他吸引了所有加密用户的注意力。他主宰着市场上的每一种代币，不到一天的时间他的净资产就翻了一番。他完全掌控着市场，直到……他的妻子推出 MELANIA 币，他对自己代币发起“吸血鬼攻击”，导致 TRUMP 币下跌超 50% 。

（相关阅读：特朗普家族再整活！“第一夫人币”MELANIA 市值短时破百亿，多个代币细节惹市场争议）

不是说 TRUMP 币是个骗局。然而大多数人都认同，MELANIA 币的推出是一个巨大的失误。但这一失误并不意味着志加密货币的终结。

事实上其标志着一个新的开始，一个疯狂周期的开始。名人 meme 成为常态，加密货币中不存在“犯罪”。以下是对本轮周期的 4 个关键预测以及将产生最大影响的代币/生态系统：

超级周期开启，$TRUMP热潮之后的加密市场四点预测

市场更加聪明，Trump memes 降温

虽然不确定特朗普家族是否会停止发行 meme，抑或是家族所有人都会发行。然而，有一件事是明确的：每种新代币的收益会递减。

推出 MELANIA 币是一个巨大的错误，TRUMP 币的估值注定要高得多，甚至可能是 DOGE 级别的估值。然而，特朗普内部人士过早地亮出了底牌。

随着越来越多的 TRUMP memes 发布并表现不佳，预计交易员会寻找更广阔的市场和更多的增长机会。

与此同时，名人们也会密切关注眼前的这个黄金机会……

超级周期开启，$TRUMP热潮之后的加密市场四点预测

名人 Memes & Rugs

名人们将推出自己的 memecoin。这并不奇怪。市场已经对此有所期待。

但市场没有预料到的是，名人 memecoin 对市场的影响。

尽管公众都因 Hawk Tuah（HAWK 代币崩盘）和 Floyd Mayweather（拳击运动员 Floyd Mayweather 曾参与推广诈骗项目 Mayweverse 等）而患上了创伤后应激障碍（PTSD，但不妨先回顾一下过去两天的一些关键数据：

  • 特朗普的 meme 吸引了超 11.5 万名加密货币新用户（见下面仪表板）。

  • 谷歌关于加密货币的搜索在过去几天飙升：“Solana” 的搜索量飙升至今年新高，“Crypto”、“Ethereum” 和 “Coinbase” 等词汇的搜索量在今年都呈上升趋势。

超级周期开启，$TRUMP热潮之后的加密市场四点预测

Source: @0x Boxer

为何这一数据如此重要？

11.5 万用户不是一个小数字。

  • 作为参考， 11.5 万是 Arbitrum 日活用户的 1/2 ，是以太坊日活用户的 1/4 

谷歌搜索数据表明有新的用户群体。

  • 加密老用户不会使用谷歌。他们有 Coinbase 的链接，他们知道 Solana 是什么，并在 X 上搜索有关信息

  • 这些数据还表明，兴趣的增加不仅限于 Solana，而是整个加密领域

其他名人也可能产生类似的影响。

还有许多其他拥有狂热追随者的名人，他们可以像特朗普一样为链上带来数十万用户。例如 Elon Musk, Mr. Beast, Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber, CR 7, Messi, Jeff Bezos。

试想一下 Taylor Swift 推出了 TSWIFT 币，并在链上带来了 10 - 20 万新用户。这相当于为加密货币添加了一条全新的链，为太阳系增加了一个全新的用户星球。

尽管这一切都是乐观的看法，而且参考以往，名人 meme 多以 Rug pulls 告终。然而，在牛市中，人们很快就会忘记。

Hawk Tuah 的 Rug 事件不会影响赌徒和霉粉们购买她未来的 meme。即使接下来 9/10 的名人 meme 都 Rug pulls，但没有 Rug 的那个 meme 也会为加密领域带来急需的用户和流动性。

AI 代币：王者归来

上述提及特朗普 meme 降温后，交易员会寻找更好的机会。AI 是其中最好的机会。当想到 AI 时，会想到 APE 的首字母缩略词：

  • A：抽象。AI 解决了 UI/UX 问题。其通过自然语言简化了交易、借贷、借入、LPing 等所有复杂的 DeFi 流程。

  • P：利润/保护。AI agents 提供自动化和卓越的交易策略，为用户提供额外的利润回报。AI agents 也非常适合保护投资者免受诈骗。一些团队已经在开发一种钱包保护程序，在用户购买代币之前提醒他们可能存在欺诈行为的迹象。

  • E：娱乐。Waifu、DJ 等等，还需赘述吗？

当考虑到 AI 对加密货币的影响时，会发觉从 Trump 交易员到 DeFAI 的利润轮转是显而易见的。个人最喜欢的几个 AI 项目包括 VIRTUAL、AIXBT、AVA、FARTCOIN 以及 HAT。

此外还密切关注那些具有脱颖而出的小众用例的 MCAP 项目（不是另一个交易机器人或 launch pad）：

  • ANTIRUG：关于项目 Rug 的预测分析

  • PYTHIA：老鼠大脑中的 AI

  • VIRAL：直接从屏幕上人类行为中学习的代理

超级周期开启，$TRUMP热潮之后的加密市场四点预测

SOL：不败的冠军

如果不出意外的话，TRUMP 币证明了 Solana 是启动代币的最好链，没有更优的选择。

一天市值达到 150 亿美元，其他任何领域都不可能做到这一点。

在过去的两天里，Solana 几乎在每一个指标上都创下新高（相关阅读：疯狂周末： 10 张图解析加密市场的 Solana 时刻）：

  • TVL 飙升至 120 亿美元以上，达到自 2021 年牛市高峰期以来最高水平

  • 价格上涨超 25% ，达到 290 美元新高

  • DEX 交易量再次创下 175 亿美元的新高。

Solana 是“大众”链，而且似乎短期内不会改变。

超级周期开启，$TRUMP热潮之后的加密市场四点预测

Leituras Relacionadas

Is LIT’s burn worth $42 million enough to spur the altcoin’s next big rally?

Lighter (LIT) has experienced significant volatility, rallying 18% over the past week but facing potential overbought conditions. After a warning of a correction toward $2, the price dipped to $2.3 before recovering to $2.60. A major catalyst was the recent burn of over 15.6 million LIT tokens (worth ~$42 million), representing 6.3% of the circulating supply, which may have spurred short-term bullish momentum toward $3. Technical analysis on the 1-day chart shows a bearish divergence with the RSI, signaling a potential pullback despite strong demand. The key Fibonacci retracement level to watch is $2.30. On the 4-hour chart, LIT is forming a range between $2.31 and $2.68. The suggested strategy is to wait for a breakout above $2.70 to target $3.06-$3.21, or a breakdown below $2.31 for a likely deeper retracement below $2. In summary, while bullish momentum persists, traders should monitor the range boundaries for the next directional move.

ambcryptoHá 10m

Is LIT’s burn worth $42 million enough to spur the altcoin’s next big rally?

ambcryptoHá 10m

Nearly a Hundred Players Rush into Embodied Data: With 4.47 Billion Yuan in Financing in One Year, Who Can Really Make Money by 'Selling Data'?

The domestic embodied AI data industry has attracted nearly 100 players, with 70 focused on data collection and 27 on data infrastructure. In the past year, 15 independent embodied data service providers raised approximately 4.47 billion yuan. Despite this growth, the sector remains early-stage, fragmented, and faces significant challenges. Data collection methods are diverse, categorized into four main routes: teleoperation of real robots, human demonstration without a robot (using motion capture, exoskeletons, etc.), simulation synthesis, and distillation from internet videos. Most companies (43%) adopt hybrid approaches, combining multiple routes, as no single method can meet all training needs. Teleoperation alone is pursued by 31% of players, often by state-owned platforms and robot companies, while newer firms favor asset-light, no-hardware human demonstration. Independent data service providers now form the largest player group (40%), indicating the emergence of a distinct industry segment rather than just a subsidiary function for robot makers. Two-thirds of all players are "embodied-native" startups, while one-third are companies that pivoted from fields like AI data annotation, which are more prevalent in the data infrastructure layer. Current annual industry capacity is estimated at 1.6-1.8 million hours plus 70-80 million data points, with a short-term goal to increase this 15-20 fold within 1-3 years. Data collection factories are spread across 20 provinces in China, concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and Pearl River Delta regions. Financially, the 4.47 billion yuan raised in the past year pales compared to the 43.8 billion yuan raised by the broader embodied intelligence sector in just the first half of 2026, highlighting that data remains a less "sexy" bet for investors. The 15 funded independent providers show clear stratification: a top tier led by a unicorn (Lightwheel Intelligence, 3.1 billion yuan), a middle tier of 11 firms raising tens to hundreds of millions, and an early-stage tier of 3 companies. Sixty-nine investment institutions have participated, but none have made concentrated bets, reflecting uncertainty about viable business models. Over half of these funded companies are less than a year old, most are at pre-A or A rounds, and profitability remains largely unproven. In summary, the embodied data industry has become an independent track creating jobs and local economic activity. However, it is still nascent, with unformed consensus, unsolved problems, and unproven business models. The coming 1-2 years will be a critical validation window to see if companies can build sustainable, profitable businesses purely by "selling data."

marsbitHá 42m

Nearly a Hundred Players Rush into Embodied Data: With 4.47 Billion Yuan in Financing in One Year, Who Can Really Make Money by 'Selling Data'?

marsbitHá 42m

Dialogue with Multicoin Partner: The Crypto Market Has Bottomed Out, Favoring Three Cryptocurrencies in This Cycle

In a recent interview, Multicoin Capital managing partner Tushar Jain shared his views on the crypto market. He believes the market has bottomed and is at an inflection point, citing that negative news no longer causes significant price declines and application adoption continues to grow. Jain remains highly bullish on Solana, viewing it as the correct architectural choice for internet capital markets, particularly for spot and tokenized security trading. He is also positive on Hyperliquid, noting its leadership in decentralized derivatives trading. His investment approach focuses on concentrating capital in top convictions rather than equal allocation. A distinct opportunity he highlights is Zcash (ZEC), which he sees as a return to the industry's cypherpunk ethos and a potential top-five asset by market cap. For assets like Zcash without cash flows, his valuation framework is based on relative market cap ranking. Regarding investment strategy, Jain employs a "three-part" entry method to avoid timing pitfalls and emphasizes long-term "active management" over "active trading." He outlines four sources of investment edge: informational, analytical, behavioral/psychological, and structural. On portfolio management, the fund uses Bitcoin as its "cash," selling assets into Bitcoin during market euphoria to reduce beta risk and using Bitcoin to buy dips. Sales occur only if a better opportunity arises, the investment thesis breaks, or valuations become excessively overheated. While respectful of Ethereum's resilience, he questions its unclear scaling roadmap. Finally, Jain reaffirms his commitment to the thesis that blockchains will form the foundational architecture for future capital markets.

marsbitHá 1h

Dialogue with Multicoin Partner: The Crypto Market Has Bottomed Out, Favoring Three Cryptocurrencies in This Cycle

marsbitHá 1h

Bitcoin nears cycle bottom despite record $8B Spot ETF outflows – Why?

Bitcoin (BTC) is recovering near $64,100 after falling below $60,000, but faces headwinds from Middle East tensions and persistent U.S. inflation concerns, keeping the Federal Reserve's interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%. According to CoinShares' James Butterfill, signs suggest Bitcoin may be nearing a cycle bottom despite a record 8-week streak of Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows totaling ~$8 billion. Recent small ETF inflows hint at easing institutional selling pressure. Notably, a large 3,588 BTC sell-off by a specific strategy in early July had minimal market impact. On-chain data shows new buyer support forming in the $60k-$63k range, while the $77k price level has shifted from support to a key resistance zone. Overall, the market is under pressure but not broken, with cautious sentiment prevailing as Bitcoin trades below major historical cost bases.

ambcryptoHá 1h

Bitcoin nears cycle bottom despite record $8B Spot ETF outflows – Why?

ambcryptoHá 1h

XRP price prediction: Are sidelined traders refusing to chase shallow bounces?

XRP's network activity has hit unusually low levels, with daily active addresses and network growth at significant lows for 2026 and since late 2024, respectively. This suggests sidelined traders are waiting for a substantial price move rather than chasing shallow bounces. Spot volume trends confirm muted buying pressure, with the spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) in neutral territory and in decline since March. While XRP is flowing out of exchanges into accumulation, these outflows are less pronounced than in 2025. Despite a major price correction, bearish sentiment remains strong, as evidenced by sustained negative aggregate funding rates throughout 2026. This extreme bearish consensus could paradoxically signal a potential medium-term bullish reversal, similar to a pattern observed before a significant rally in April 2025. However, a major shift in spot volume is necessary for any sustained price recovery.

ambcryptoHá 2h

XRP price prediction: Are sidelined traders refusing to chase shallow bounces?

ambcryptoHá 2h

Trading

Spot
活动图片

Categorias popularesright-arrow

Etiquetas Popularesright-arrow