Биткоин преодолел $102K: влияние тарифов Трампа и слабого доллара

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2024-02-07Última atualização em 2025-01-07

Цена Биткоина вновь превысила отметку в $100,000, достигнув $102K. При этом курс доллара снизился после сообщений о планах президента Дональда Трампа ввести «ограниченные» тарифы на импорт. В этой статье разберём, почему рынок так реагирует на тарифные новости, и какие факторы влияют на котировки BTC.

Новые тарифы: что планирует Трамп

Washington Post сообщило, что «универсальные» тарифы, о которых Трамп упоминал на предвыборных митингах, могут коснуться лишь «критичных» отраслей.

Источники указывают, что план ещё не окончательный, но основные идеи — защитить национальную безопасность и экономические интересы США в стратегических секторах (медицина, энергетика).

В ответ на публикацию, Трамп через Truth Social заявил, что его тарифная политика «не будет урезана».

Почему это важно для биткоина

Рост тарифов на импорт может укрепить доллар, что традиционно давит на цену криптовалют. Если тарифы окажутся менее жёсткими, доллару сложнее будет сохранять позицию, а это даёт шанс биткоину укрепиться.

BTC: возврат выше $100K

Сейчас биткоин торгуется в районе $102K, хотя исторически максимальный уровень $108K был зафиксирован в прошлом месяце.

Риски краткосрочных колебаний

Если тарифы окажутся более жёсткими, чем ожидается, доллар может укрепиться. Трейдер Grayscale Zach Pandl подчеркнул, что ужесточение тарифов обычно способствует силе доллара, что может затормозить рост BTC.

«Более высокие тарифы, при прочих равных условиях, будут означать силу доллара», — сказал он. «Влияние косвенное, но тарифы могут повлиять на стоимость биткоина, поскольку он коррелирует с долларом».

Влияние ФРС

Рынок ждёт двух понижений ставки на 25 б.п. против четырёх, о которых говорили раньше. Если ФРС решит действовать агрессивнее, это может вызвать волатильность в крипто.

Фактор «Trump Pump»

Биткоин заметно вырос после победы Трампа на выборах. В случае неудачи с ключевыми обещаниями (например, проамериканские тарифы), возможна коррекция.

Криптовалютный хрустальный шар 2025: насколько упорно Трамп будет бороться за биткоин и криптовалюту?

Прошел еще один год, и криптовалюта снова оказалась на определяющем перекрестке. Пережив крестовый поход регулирования в Соединенных Штатах и все невзгоды медвежьего рынка, индустрия цифровых активов снова на подъеме. По всем признакам, 2025 год, станет величайшим годом для криптовалют. Но как именно отрасль решит использовать этот момент возможностей, пока еще не ясно.

Более низкие процентные ставки, поддерживают рискованные активы, поскольку они снижают стоимость заимствований, увеличивают потребительские расходы и делают более безопасные инвестиции, такие как облигации или наличные деньги, менее привлекательными.

Структурные изменения в мировой торговле: рост тарифов — лишь часть общего тренда на фрагментацию глобального рынка, поясняет Pandl.

«В долгосрочной перспективе они являются частью более масштабных тенденций, которые фрагментируют основанную на долларе международную финансовую систему», — сказал он, добавив, что они «подталкивают инвесторов к альтернативным средствам сбережения, таким как физическое золото и биткоины».

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