SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Final Stretch

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2024-12-02Última atualização em 2024-12-02

Resumo

上周是美国的感恩节假期，市场成交量清淡，整体维持盘整格局。美国股市即将再次创造历史， 2024年将成为历史上表现最好的年份之一，且过去6年中有5年的回报率达到了两位数的高点...

上周是美国的感恩节假期，市场成交量清淡，整体维持盘整格局。美国股市即将再次创造历史， 2024 年将成为历史上表现最好的年份之一，且过去 6 年中有 5 年的回报率达到了两位数的高点。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Final Stretch

市场广度仍然具有支撑性， 52 周股票新高新低数量差值看起来依然健康，上涨趋势保持完好，波动率指数（VIX）呈下行趋势，同时，在 Trump 宣布 Scott Bessent 将出任财政部长后，美债市场恢复平静， 10 年期收益率较 10 月高点下跌了近 35 个基点。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Final Stretch

除了所谓的“支持加密货币”立场外，Bessent 同时也是财政鹰派和独立美联储的支持者，他提出的 3-3-3 计划（将财政赤字降至 GDP 的 3% ，将实际 GDP 增长提高到 3% ，能源每日增产 300 万桶）为美国固定收益市场带来了缓解，自他获得提名以来，收益率曲线溢价一直稳定在当前水平。

尽管对他的核心观点仍存疑，但记者们在研究其早期演讲时发现，由于央行持续积累，他“长期看多”黄金，这是否会对 Bitcoin 产生溢出效应，尤其是在近期关于战略储备组合的讨论中？至少可以说，未来 4 年无疑会非常有趣。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Final Stretch

交易员将重返忙碌的一周，迎接今年最后一次的非农就业数据发布。尽管对通胀回升的担忧刚刚浮现，市场仍预计降息的可能性有 65% 左右，但考虑到经济情况强劲， 2025-2027 年的远期降息预期已大幅降低。在就业数据方面，市场预计整体就业数据将反弹至 + 16 万左右，失业率则维持在 4.3% 左右的水平。鉴于近期 PMI 调查和高频就业数据的疲软，最终数据结果也有机会低于预期，但除非出现极其令人意外的结果，否则风险情绪可能仍会保持积极。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Final Stretch

加密货币市场的乐观情绪依然普遍存在，不过本周的焦点是 Ripple，在预期政府将撤销其长期诉讼的背景下，XRP 飙升了惊人的 73% ，这波显著的涨势帮助 XRP 超越 USDT，成为市值排名第三的加密货币。预期到这一发展，巨鲸地址在过去一个月积极买入（而现正卖出）XRP。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Final Stretch

目前的涨势主要集中在主流币（不包括 ETH），BTC 领涨，而 altcoins 目前仍在努力回到 1 月的高点。虽然近期 L2 和协议转型区块链（例如 Hyperliquid）的成功仍主导著加密货币市场的注意力，不过我们通过 ETH ETF 的流入看到以太坊出现了一些起色，上周五资金流入超过 3.3 亿美元，年底前是否会看到更多次级主流币被带动反弹？

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Final Stretch

无论如何，加密货币的基本指标仍然乐观，稳定币的市值终于超过了 Terra-Luna 时期的高点。稳定币通常是大多数法币用户进入加密货币市场的第一站，而较高的市值（价格固定，因此完全由数量驱动）表明主流参与度更高。

随著投资者投入更多新资金，新的一年会出现更快速的增长吗？希望如此！

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Final Stretch

您可在 t.signalplus.com 使用 SignalPlus 交易风向标功能，获取更多实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlusCN，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

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