SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2024-11-18Última atualização em 2024-11-18

Resumo

多头仓位处在极端水平，加上市场对收益率持续攀升的担忧（10 年期名目收益率约为 4.45% ，实际收益率>2.15% ），美国股市回吐了部分近期涨幅（上周五 SPX -1.3% ，Nasdaq -2.3% ）。此外，Powell 主席在上周的谈话中表示...

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

多头仓位处在极端水平，加上市场对收益率持续攀升的担忧（10 年期名目收益率约为 4.45% ，实际收益率>2.15% ），美国股市回吐了部分近期涨幅（上周五 SPX -1.3% ，Nasdaq -2.3% ）。此外，Powell 主席在上周的谈话中表示，考虑到经济情况强劲，美联储正在考虑放缓降息步伐，导致市场定价 12 月降息的可能性从 9 月份高点的近 2 码下降至仅 61% 。

“目前经济情况并未发出任何急需降息的信号” Powell 周四在 Dallas 的一次谈话中表示，“当前经济的强劲表现让我们能够更加谨慎地做出决策。”-- Jerome Powell

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

在上周五股市大幅抛售之前，股市波动率指数（VIX）在大选后已经从 23 跌至 14 ，两周内暴跌近 40% ，尽管市场走势如我们在股市和加密货币（memecoin）反弹中所看到的那样越来越迅速，但我们认为交易的“轻松部分”已经结束，未来市场将面临更多波动和挑战。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

Biden 总统与 Trump 明确承诺将进行平稳的政权交接，如今市场焦点已经从大选转移到政策，市场正密切注意接下来内阁的布局，目前多个关键职位已经明朗，特别是在贸易和国家安全方面较倾向鹰派，剩下的关键职位之一是财政部长，当前的热门人选有 Scott Bessent (长期投资者兼 Soros 的合伙人) 和 Howard Lutnick (Cantor Fitzgerald 的 CEO)。

Bessent 被认为是具有丰富资本市场经验的“安全牌”，不过 Lutnick 的公司是 Tether 托管人之一，因此特别受到加密货币社区的关注，无论谁入阁，两个候选人都被视作“支持加密货币”，加密货币行业有机会继续得到政治支持，并推动 Bitcoin 作为储备资产的长期发展。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

在政策方面，尽管市场对 Trump 即将推出的各种举措感到兴奋，但并非所有政策都会产生相同的影响，且即使在共和党控制国会的情况下，执行政策仍然需要解决许多细节问题。

1. 当前我们处于一个较为轻松的阶段，市场纯粹因希望和预期而反弹，投资者对刺激计划的正面影响满怀期待，同时暂时忽略了关税和移民政策收紧所带来的负面影响。基本上，这是一个两全其美的理想情景，因此风险资产大幅上涨。

2. 接下来，候任总统最容易采取的行动将是放松监管，这可以通过行政命令直接推行，例如各种能源项目和退出巴黎气候协定。基本上，银行和加密货币的放松监管也属于这一范畴，不过后者可能需要一段时间，且需要更多监管明确性来支撑当前的牛市。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

3. 接下来是更具争议性的移民和关税问题。在移民政策方面，加强边境管控和大规模驱逐出境将会迎来媒体和法庭的严厉挑战，但 Trump 政府可能会将其作为核心竞选政策来推动。这些措施可能会导致劳动力供应减少，尤其是蓝领岗位，接著使通胀进一步加剧，导致 2025 年下半年美联储的工作变得更加困难。

4. 在关税方面，市场预计最早在第一季度就会出现大量重磅新闻，Trump 凭借其上一任期的经验，可能会将中国作为主要目标。针对欧洲和其他贸易伙伴更广泛的关税措施可能会需要国会支持，并可能需要 Trump 提出和解方案作为动机，时间可能会推迟至第二季度，而成本上升推高通胀的负面影响预计将在 2025 年下半年开始显现。

5. 最后，鉴于美国债务余额不断飙升以及新成立的“DOGE”部门对政府效率和成本削减的关注，财政支出的大规模计划将是 Trump 政府最难实施的举措，任何减税和支出计划都需要与财政部协商并与国会进行谈判，预计市场最终会对这方面感到失望。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

Trump 当选后，加密货币一直是最热门的资产类别，BTC 突破 9 万美元，涨幅甚至超越杠杆 Nasdaq 指数。BTC 涨势主要来自美国交易时段，美国的主流参与度不断增加，现货 ETF 出现大幅资金流入，BTC ETF 上周流入 17 亿美元，ETH ETF 流入 5 亿美元。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

主流参与的另一个正面迹象是稳定币市值的持续增长，总市值已突破 1600 亿美元，接近 2022 年的历史高点。稳定币是主流参与的重要指标，几乎所有上链活动的第一步都是将法币转成稳定币，此外，稳定币供应量大致与 M 2 同步增长，如果美国政府重回净扩张的货币供应政策，从长远来看对市场是个好兆头。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

总体而言，我们认为市场反弹的“轻松”部分已经结束，下一阶段将更具挑战性，价格将更加波动，并有可能出现回撤。另外，尽管 memecoin 狂热再次复苏，且 ETH 也显露些许生机，但 BTC 的主导地位仍单向上升，类似于 SPX 指数中大型股主导的情况，这对当前加密货币生态系来说并不是特别理想。无论如何，随著市场情绪达到高度亢奋的水平，我们将密切注意市场短期内可能出现的冲顶回落，请务必做好风险管理，警惕未来更多的波动！

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：The Next Inning

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