The AI Stock Genius Who Made 60x Bets $7.7 Billion on Nvidia Topping Out
An AI-focused hedge fund named Situational Awareness LP, known for its 60x returns, has taken a significant bearish stance on semiconductor stocks in Q1 2026. Its 13F filing reveals a massive 148% quarterly increase in nominal exposure to $13.677 billion, with over 60% of the new exposure directed towards put options on major chip players. Key bearish bets include $2.04 billion in puts on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and $1.56 billion on NVIDIA, alongside positions against Broadcom, Oracle, AMD, and others. The fund simultaneously increased its long equity holdings in AI infrastructure and compute providers like CoreWeave and Bitcoin mining companies repurposing for compute.
The core thesis behind this positioning is a shift in the primary constraint for AI expansion. The fund argues that while GPU supply was the critical bottleneck in previous years, the new limiting factors for large-scale AI cluster deployment are physical infrastructure: electrical grid access (with multi-year backlogs in the US), power availability, land, and data center construction timelines. The fund is not betting against AI's success but rather hedging against potential valuation corrections in semiconductor stocks whose prices may have run ahead, while directly investing in the downstream physical bottlenecks—power and data center capacity—it believes will capture value next. This move translates a previously theoretical narrative about infrastructure constraints into a concrete, high-conviction portfolio structure.
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