Bitwise CIO: STRC Plunge is a Bottom Signal, Bull Market to Begin in Autumn
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, explains the recent Bitcoin price drop below $60,000 and its connection to the steep decline in MicroStrategy's STRC (Strategy's Perpetual Preferred Stock). STRC, designed as a high-yield, stable-price instrument, fell from its $100 target to $75 due to market fears over MicroStrategy's ability to sustain its dividend amid Bitcoin's price weakness.
Hougan clarifies that while MicroStrategy's overall financial position remains strong, with significant Bitcoin holdings and cash, the core market anxiety centered on the optional nature of the dividend payments. In response, MicroStrategy announced a new operational framework: it will sell some Bitcoin as needed to fund dividends, will no longer actively defend the $100 share price through dividend hikes, and may repurchase STRC on the open market. This shift marks a change in MicroStrategy's role from a consistent, one-way buyer of Bitcoin to a more dynamic participant that may both buy and sell.
According to Hougan, the STRC volatility is a classic late-cycle event, signaling the painful but necessary process of flushing out excessive leverage from the market. He draws parallels to the unwinding of the GBTC premium in the previous cycle. He identifies key potential bottoming signals: MSTR trading at a discount to its net asset value (NAV), extreme readings on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, and persistently negative Bitcoin funding rates.
Hougan concludes that while the exact timing of the market bottom is unpredictable, the current deleveraging phase suggests it is near. He expresses confidence that a new bull market will begin in the fall of this year, with the next major wave of buying expected to come from institutional investors like banks, asset managers, and pension funds.
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