Аналитик CryptoQuant спрогнозировал рост курса биткоина в конце текущего года

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2023-11-16Última atualização em 2024-08-16

Материал не является инвестиционной рекомендацией и опубликован исключительно в ознакомительных целях.

Что произошло? Глава отдела исследований аналитической блокчейн-платформы CryptoQuant Джулио Морено предположил, что курс биткоина начнет расти в IV квартале текущего года. Прогноз основан на сравнении текущего ценового графика актива с ситуацией на рынке в предыдущие годы халвинга.

Источник: X.com

Что еще известно? Халвинг в сети биткоина — это запрограммированное событие, которое происходит каждые четыре года с момента запуска блокчейна и вдвое урезает награду майнерам за добычу блоков. В частности, Морено сравнивал движение цен в 2016, 2020 и текущем году. В апреле 2024 года также состоялся халвинг, в результате чего награда была урезана до 3,125 BTC.

По словам аналитика, текущая ситуация на рынке в целом схожа с тем, что наблюдалось в 2016 и 2020 годы, а поскольку тогда курс актива демонстрировал заметный рост в IV квартале, он допустил, что то же самое может произойти и теперь.

Для анализа был использован индекс CryptoQuant, отслеживающий доходность первой криптовалюты в годы халвинга. Из общей картины выбивается лишь 2012 год, когда произошел первый халвинг — тогда наиболее заметный ценовой скачок произошел в III квартале, и к концу года стоимость актива несколько снизилась относительно этого пика.

До этого криптоинвестор Моатаз Эльсайд, известный под ником Eljaboom, также проанализировал ценовое движение биткоина в предыдущие годы халвинга.

Источник: X.com

Он отметил, что в 2016 году курс сначала упал на 40%, однако затем вырос на 2300%, а в 2020 году падение на 30% сменилось отскоком на 560%. Наконец он добавил, что в 2024 году уже было зафиксировано падение на 30%, а затем консолидация в ценовом диапазоне между историческим пиком и локальными минимумами. По его мнению, это сигнализирует о предстоящем прорыве в IV квартале.

А аналитик и инвестор Питер Брандт в начале августа отметил, что текущее снижение курса BTC схоже с ценовым движение бычьего цикла 2015-2017 годов.

Источник: X.com

Также верифицированный автор CryptoQuant Аксель Адлер связал недавнее снижение курса BTC с действиями медвежьи настроенных трейдеров. По его словам, они продают каждый раз, когда появляются новости о перемещении большого объема BTC на биржи правительством США.

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