若“懂王”当选，加密货币或成为主要的“特朗普交易”！

jin10Publicado em 2024-06-25Última atualização em 2024-06-25

Bernstein分析师表示，在当前选举周期中，随着共和党前景较好且该党领袖特朗普越来越支持加密货币，加密货币可能成为新的“特朗普交易”。

Gautam Chhugani和Mahika Sapra在周一发布的一份报告中写道，共和党人认为对加密货币行业采取友好态度，既是一种赢得选民的方式，也是从支持亲加密货币政客的超级政治行动委员会（Super PAC）那里获得竞选资金的方式。

最初的“特朗普交易”概念是在特朗普2016年赢得总统选举后，美国股市、美债收益率和美元同时飙升的情况下提出的。根据这份报告，如果特朗普这次获胜，将导致加密货币的反弹，这得益于机构采用和监管环境的改善。

分析师写道：“共和党不仅将加密货币视为票仓，而且视其为重要的资金来源。如果选举情绪进一步向共和党倾斜，加密货币最终将成为主要的‘特朗普交易’，对有利的监管制度的希望将改变围绕区块链‘使用案例’的叙事。”

本月早些时候，特朗普在Mar-a-Lago与几家比特币矿商的领导人会面，并表达了他对加密货币的支持。他表示，如果再次当选总统，他将成为加密货币矿业的倡导者。

特朗普后来在他的Truth Social账户上发帖称，他希望所有剩余的比特币都是“美国制造！！！”

尽管他发出了亲加密货币的信号，但TD Cowen的一份报告显示，如果特朗普当选，他仍可能重新成为加密货币怀疑者。

Cowen的报告指出，特朗普在2024年首场总统辩论中对加密货币的言论，将成为其潜在政府监管行动的风向标。报告称：“如果他没有表现出完全支持的态度，这可能会加剧人们的焦虑，即如果他再次当选，他将回到第一任期时对加密货币的怀疑态度。”

报告还指出，拜登可能在当地时间周四的辩论中重新定位自己对加密货币的立场。

在拜登政府期间，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）因其对加密货币交易平台的严厉打压，而遭到加密货币倡导者的批评。即便如此，由于SEC今年早些时候批准了现货比特币和以太坊ETF，许多观察人士认为SEC的立场正在软化。

现货比特币ETF已促使全球最大的加密货币获得机构采用，并使其今年上涨近37%。即使现货以太币ETF尚未正式上市，该代币今年也上涨了近40%。

Cowen的报告称：“我们敦促交易者谨慎对待任何候选人关于加密货币的言论。其言论可能很重要，但我们最终认为，假设候选人都能兑现承诺将是错误的。”

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