2100万枚比特币的下落如何？下落不明的比例居然占了17.6%！

jin10Publicado em 2024-06-25Última atualização em 2024-06-25

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U.S. July PCE Price Index Rises 3.7% YoY, Giving Fed Room to Stand Pat

U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly stalled in July, while key inflation measures showed mild trends, providing more data support for the Federal Reserve's stance to keep interest rates unchanged. The Commerce Department reported that the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% month-over-month, with the year-over-year increase holding at 3.7%. The core PCE index, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.2% monthly, with the annual rate steady at 3.3%, meeting expectations. However, inflation-adjusted real personal consumption expenditure was flat for the month. The data indicates signs of cooling in the U.S. economy after strong expansion earlier in the summer. For Fed officials, this supports the argument for pausing rate hikes, although core PCE remains well above the central bank's 2% target, suggesting inflationary pressures have not fully subsided. Market focus now shifts to the annual Jackson Hole symposium, where investors await Fed Chair Wash's speech for clues on the policy path amid persistent inflation. Concurrently, a separate report showed the U.S. second-quarter GDP growth was unchanged from the initial estimate, but with details pointing to stronger consumer spending, adding some support to the economic outlook.

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U.S. July PCE Price Index Rises 3.7% YoY, Giving Fed Room to Stand Pat

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Former Nvidia AI Director Overturns Transformer, Creates 5 Trillion-Context Physical AI That Can Simulate the Entire Universe

Former NVIDIA AI Director Anima Anandkumar and her co-founder Benedikt Jenik have unveiled a groundbreaking "Physical AI" model through their startup, Accelerated Understanding. This model departs entirely from the dominant Transformer architecture, instead utilizing "Neural Operators" to directly understand and simulate physical phenomena in their full 4D spacetime (3D space + time). It achieves a staggering inference-time context window of over 5 trillion tokens—reportedly 5 million times larger than current top LLMs—enabling it to generate complete 4D trajectories of complex physical systems in a single, one-shot inference without subsampling or chunking. The model, pre-trained with 1 trillion parameters and scaled to 35 trillion in experiments, functions as a universal physics simulator capable of handling diverse domains from weather to materials science. It establishes a "simulate → improve → simulate" loop for reality validation. The founders notably turned down a lavish offer from Jeff Bezos's Project Prometheus, which included 35% equity, a $2M salary, and over $20B in committed funding. Industry speculation points to NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, who previously championed Anandkumar's work, as a potential key supporter behind the scenes. This development signals a paradigm shift from language/image-centric AI to physics-first intelligence.

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Former Nvidia AI Director Overturns Transformer, Creates 5 Trillion-Context Physical AI That Can Simulate the Entire Universe

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NVIDIA Earnings Report Quick Read: Quarterly Revenue on the Verge of Breaking the $100 Billion Mark, Can Still Grow 70% Next Year

NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Earnings Report: Record Revenue Nears $100 Billion, Projects 70% Growth for Next Year NVIDIA reported exceptional Q2 FY2027 results, with revenue reaching $96.22 billion (up 106% YoY) and non-GAAP net income of $53.95 billion (up 118% YoY). Q3 revenue guidance of $108 billion signals the company's imminent entry into a "quarterly $100 billion revenue" era. The most striking projection came from the CFO, who forecasted approximately 70% revenue growth for FY2028, significantly above Wall Street's 45% expectation, and notably stated this outlook excludes any data center revenue from China. The data center segment remained the core driver, generating $89 billion (up 117% YoY), representing over 90% of total revenue. Growth continues to be primarily fueled by capital expenditures from hyperscale cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta. A key product milestone was the confirmation that the Vera Rubin platform has entered full-scale production and begun shipments. Management stated that every 1 GW of Vera Rubin compute deployed represents a roughly $40 billion revenue opportunity, with the platform expected to contribute about 20% of data center revenue in Q3. CEO Jensen Huang noted its ramp-up is the fastest in company history, providing confidence for the strong future outlook. Management emphasized that AI demand is not slowing but accelerating and broadening into new areas like inference, enterprise AI, and robotics. The primary constraint on growth is now supply, not demand. Huang indicated that without supply limitations, the FY2028 outlook would be "much higher." Bottlenecks include components like HBM, advanced packaging, and data center power. In response, NVIDIA is expanding its role, collaborating with financial firms to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure and securing key resources like land and power. Crossing the $100 billion quarterly revenue mark represents a new scale for NVIDIA, while the 70% growth projection for next year suggests it may just be the starting point for the next phase.

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NVIDIA Earnings Report Quick Read: Quarterly Revenue on the Verge of Breaking the $100 Billion Mark, Can Still Grow 70% Next Year

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Why Isn't Bitcoin's Higher Ownership Rate Than Gold Among Americans Considered a Victory?

Bitcoin adoption among American adults has surpassed gold holdings, with 18.6% of U.S. adults holding Bitcoin compared to 10.8% holding gold, according to a July study. The U.S. holds roughly 42% of the global Bitcoin supply, and a proposed bill could direct the Treasury to study accumulating Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Macro factors, including the U.S. Treasury's increased bond buyback program, weakened the dollar and boosted both gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets. The Bitcoin-to-gold price ratio is highlighted as a leading indicator. While Bitcoin's adoption rate is significant, its total market value remains far below gold's, indicating a shift in trajectory rather than a parity in institutional allocation. Key signals to watch include sustained dollar weakness, potential expansion of Treasury buybacks, and a continued rise in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which would suggest capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin.

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Why Isn't Bitcoin's Higher Ownership Rate Than Gold Among Americans Considered a Victory?

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Inflation Has Not Improved. Will Warsh Support a Rate Hike on Friday?

U.S. inflation remained stubbornly high in July, with the PCE price index holding at a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, unchanged from June and still far above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The core PCE index also stayed flat at 3.3%. While inflation did not worsen, the fact that it did not improve either has increased market expectations for further interest rate hikes. Futures pricing now indicates a higher probability of a rate increase in September and fully prices in one hike by year-end. The economic backdrop is mixed. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised to 1.5%, but underlying components like consumer spending and business investment were robust. However, inflation-adjusted consumer spending stalled in July, and real incomes have barely grown over the past year, eroding purchasing power. The data provides arguments for both sides of the policy debate. The "wait-and-see" camp points to the lack of acceleration in inflation and upcoming methodological changes that may lower reported figures. The "pro-hike" camp highlights that inflation remains hotter than forecasts, sticky services prices, rising diesel and chip costs, and renewed trade tensions with Canada. All eyes are now on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole for clarity on his policy stance. With inflation persistently above target for over five years and midterm elections approaching where prices are a key issue, the pressure for decisive action is mounting. The speech carries significant two-way risk for markets.

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Inflation Has Not Improved. Will Warsh Support a Rate Hike on Friday?

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