SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2024-06-03Última atualização em 2024-06-03

Resumo

数字货币方面，根据Leon Waldmann在推特展示的Glassnode数据来看，自ETH ETF批准后，BTC & ETH在中心化交易所的存量占比已经降至历史新低。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

上周五美联储重点关注的核心 PCE 物价指数月率录得 0.2% ，略低于预期 0.3% ，创下 2023 年 12 月以来新低。数据公布后美债收益率连续四天下降，回吐了上周半数涨幅，十年期跌至 4.5% 以下，现报 4.475% ，两年期报 4.871% 。风险市场得到提振，道指和标普分别上涨 1.51% /0.8% ，纳指接近平收。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: Investing

数字货币方面，根据 Leon Waldmann 在推特展示的 Glassnode 数据来看，自 ETH ETF 批准后，BTC & ETH 在中心化交易所的存量占比已经降至历史新低，价值大约$ 3 B 的以太坊离开了中心化交易所，增加了潜在空头挤兑的可能性。BTC 今日上行突破了 68500 美元阻力位，开始向下一道阻力位 71500 发起挑战，截止目前，BTC 已在 68500 附近盘旋了接近 12 天，如果突破无望，有可能再次回到 66000 寻求支撑。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: TradingView；Twitter

期权方面，BTC 前端 IV 在进入工作日之前小幅反弹，但整体仍处在历史三个月的 25% 分位数以下的相对低点；ETH 略低于历史中位数，期限相对曲线偏陡，观察过去 24 小时的成交也可以看到，六月中上旬看涨期权的卖压强劲，相反六七月底及其以后的 Call 大受欢迎，或许也和 ETF S-1 的批准预期有关，当前市场“共识”仍是“最快七月批准”，届时资金进场，币价有望再度上行突破，但从另一方面说，当前 Grayscale 的 Ehereum Trust（ETHE）管理资金规模高达$ 11 B，所以也有人担心 ETF 批准发售以后市场会重演当时 GBTC 的抛压。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: Deribit （截至 3 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: SignalPlus，BTC & ETH ATM Vols

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: SignalPlus，BTC & ETH 25 dRR

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Data Source: Deribit， ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Data Source: Deribit， BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

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