SignalPlus宏观分析(20240510)：市场数据总体有利风险资产

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2024-05-10Última atualização em 2024-05-10

Resumo

这周显然没有什么大事发生，仅仅是当周首次申请失业救济人数小幅超出预期（23.1 万 vs 21.2 万）就足以推动所有主要资产类别一致走高。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240510)：市场数据总体有利风险资产

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240510)：市场数据总体有利风险资产

这周显然没有什么大事发生，仅仅是当周首次申请失业救济人数小幅超出预期（23.1 万 vs 21.2 万）就足以推动所有主要资产类别一致走高，鉴于美联储最近将关注重点转向就业市场的疲软，市场无疑相当重视这一信息，并努力寻找就业市场放缓的所有迹象来重燃降息希望。正如先前所提及的，当前的非对称风险回报设置（美联储忽视高通胀，寻找就业放缓迹象）总体上应该有利于风险资产，所以在失业救济数据发布后，股票、债券价格甚至 BTC 都同步上涨。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240510)：市场数据总体有利风险资产

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240510)：市场数据总体有利风险资产

更深入分析近期的就业数据，虽然非农就业月增长 17.5 万仍相对健康，且 3.9% 的失业率仍然较低，但一些替代性就业市场指标开始出现一些裂痕，Powell 本人在问答中也特别提到招聘率的下降以及就业调查的疲软，作为劳动力需求减弱的迹象。此外，其他分项指标，例如永久性失业率增加、离职率下降、招聘计划减少以及“难找工作”比率扩大等，均表明美国经济可能会在下半年陷入更明显的就业市场放缓，同时疫情时代累积的超额储蓄也已经耗尽。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240510)：市场数据总体有利风险资产

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240510)：市场数据总体有利风险资产

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240510)：市场数据总体有利风险资产

下周将有 CPI 数据发布，市场应该会再次活跃起来，并挑战市场近期的理想荣景。祝大家度过一个愉快的周末！

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240510)：市场数据总体有利风险资产

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

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