SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240125)：市场情绪低迷，ETH大宗看涨

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2024-01-25Última atualização em 2024-01-25

Resumo

自ETF批准至今，GBTC的总流出几乎单方面抵消了其他九只ETF的总流入，市场仍在面对短期资金外流和缺乏正面激励的困境，过去24小时BTC和ETH分别围绕40000/2220美元上下窄幅震荡，前端隐含波动率走陡。

昨日（24 JAN）美国 1 月制造业和服务业 PMI 初值均高于预期，分别录得 50.3 和 52.9 ，同时综合 PMI 初值录得 52.3 ，为 7 个月新高，此外五年期美债拍卖结果也不甚理想，市场风险情绪得到改善，美债收益率缓慢上升，当前两年期/十年期分别为 4.376% /4.158% 。美股方面，能源和大型科技股再次领涨，标普和纳指小幅上涨 0.08% /0.36% ，道指则收跌 0.26% 。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240125)：市场情绪低迷，ETH大宗看涨

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

数字货币方面，自 ETF 批准至今，GBTC 的总流出几乎单方面抵消了其他九只 ETF 的总流入，市场仍在面对短期资金外流和缺乏正面激励的困境，过去 24 小时 BTC 和 ETH 分别围绕 40000/2220 美元上下窄幅震荡，前端隐含波动率走陡，下跌大约 3% 左右，另外价格稳定后 Vol Skew 也有大约 2-3% 左右的回升，但仍处于近三个月以来的低点。

从交易上看，ETH 中远期出现大量看涨策略成交，多头的行权价集中在 2300-2400 ，其中量最大的是期权链上 23 FEB 2400 vs 2700 组合成的 Call Spread 成交，单腿成交额都在 26000 ETH 左右。BTC 方面最突出的是一笔客制策略，在卖出 1500 组 23 FEB Stangle 的同时买了 1000 组 26 APR Straddle，形成了跨期波动率利差交易。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240125)：市场情绪低迷，ETH大宗看涨

Source: Binance & TradingView

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240125)：市场情绪低迷，ETH大宗看涨

Source: Deribit （截至 24 JAN 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240125)：市场情绪低迷，ETH大宗看涨

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240125)：市场情绪低迷，ETH大宗看涨

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240125)：市场情绪低迷，ETH大宗看涨

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240125)：市场情绪低迷，ETH大宗看涨

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240125)：市场情绪低迷，ETH大宗看涨

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

Leituras Relacionadas

Who Makes the Best Use of Claude Code? The Answer Might Not Be Programmers

Claude Code Usage Report Summary (Based on ~400k sessions) Core Finding: In agentic programming with Claude Code, a clear division of labor has emerged: humans primarily decide *what* to build (planning decisions), while Claude decides *how* to build it (execution decisions). Key Insights: 1. **Effectiveness is not limited to programmers.** In code-generation tasks, success rates for users in non-technical fields (law, finance, management, research) are nearing those of software engineers. What matters most is the user's domain expertise and understanding of the problem to be solved. 2. **Domain expertise drives success and efficiency.** Sessions where users exhibited "expert" proficiency in the task's domain saw verified success rates double compared to "novice" sessions. Experts also delegated more work per instruction, with Claude executing more actions and producing more output. 3. **AI is amplifying, not replacing, domain knowledge.** Claude Code lowers the *implementation* barrier, not the *judgment* barrier. The value of knowing the "what" and "why" is increasing relative to just knowing the "how" to code. 4. **Usage is evolving.** Over a 7-month period (Oct '25 - Apr '26), the share of sessions for debugging halved, while use for software operations, data analysis, and non-code writing roughly doubled. The estimated economic value of typical tasks increased by ~25%. Conclusion: The data suggests coding agents are making programming background less critical for completing technical tasks. However, they reward and amplify deep domain understanding. The ability to successfully direct an AI agent stems more from mastery of a specific field than from coding skill itself. The primary gains come from being competent in a domain; deep specialization adds only marginal additional advantage. This may signal a shift where software creation becomes integrated into various professions.

marsbitHá 1m

Who Makes the Best Use of Claude Code? The Answer Might Not Be Programmers

marsbitHá 1m

Strategy's Preferred Stock STRC Unpegs by 11%, Can Its Perpetual Motion Machine Keep Spinning?

The preferred stock STRC issued by Strategy (MicroStrategy) has depegged over 11% from its $100 target par value, raising questions about the sustainability of the company's capital flywheel strategy. STRC, a perpetual preferred stock designed to trade around $100, serves as a key engine for Strategy's expansion, allowing it to raise fiat currency via at-the-market offerings to buy Bitcoin without diluting common shareholder equity. Its depegging, despite dividend rate hikes, suggests market concerns extend beyond yield to the core stability of Strategy's model. Analysts point to potential leveraged unwinding and, more critically, worries about Strategy's liquidity. While the company cites its massive Bitcoin holdings as covering decades of dividends, a recent small BTC sale—a first—has shaken confidence in its "never sell" narrative. If STRC remains discounted, impairing Strategy's fundraising ability, fears may grow that the company could be forced to sell Bitcoin to meet obligations, potentially turning a major market buyer into a seller and exerting significant downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

marsbitHá 45m

Strategy's Preferred Stock STRC Unpegs by 11%, Can Its Perpetual Motion Machine Keep Spinning?

marsbitHá 45m

Nobel Laureate Becomes New Employee at Anthropic

Nobel laureate and AlphaFold lead John Jumper has left Google DeepMind after nearly nine years to join AI company Anthropic. Jumper, who co-won the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his work on the protein-structure-predicting AI, led the AlphaFold project from its early stages, revolutionizing structural biology by predicting hundreds of millions of protein structures. His departure follows closely that of Transformer co-inventor Noam Shazeer, who recently left Google for OpenAI, marking a significant talent drain for the tech giant. Analysts suggest top AI researchers are seeking environments where individual impact can more directly shape a company's trajectory. Anthropic's hiring of Jumper signals a major push into AI for life sciences. The company recently acquired biotech firm Coefficient Bio and is building wet labs, aiming to drastically accelerate drug discovery and biomedical research. This move aligns with a broader trend, as OpenAI and Google DeepMind (via Isomorphic Labs) are also heavily investing in AI-driven biology and healthcare. The stage is now set for intensified competition among AI leaders to redefine life sciences through artificial intelligence.

marsbitHá 50m

Nobel Laureate Becomes New Employee at Anthropic

marsbitHá 50m

Strategy’s STRC Drop Shows The Risk Behind Bitcoin-Linked Credit Products

Strategy Inc.'s (formerly MicroStrategy) preferred stock, STRC, traded sharply below its $100 reference value during recent market stress, hitting an intraday low of $82.53. The company's CEO framed the drop as a "leverage flush"—forced selling by investors using borrowed money—rather than a fundamental default event. This distinction highlights that the selloff resulted from market mechanics and liquidity pressures, not missed payments by the issuer. The episode underscores the specific risks embedded in Bitcoin-linked credit products, which can behave differently from holding Bitcoin or common stock. As Bitcoin treasury strategies become more complex and financialized, instruments like preferred shares introduce additional layers of risk, including leverage, liquidity constraints, and sensitivity to Bitcoin's volatility. The STRC movement serves as a warning about the fragility of these structures in stressed markets, even when the underlying company remains solvent.

bitcoinistHá 7h

Strategy’s STRC Drop Shows The Risk Behind Bitcoin-Linked Credit Products

bitcoinistHá 7h

Australia’s High Court Hands ASIC Major Win In Block Earner Crypto Yield Case

Australia's High Court unanimously ruled in favor of the securities regulator ASIC in a case against crypto platform Block Earner. The court determined that Block Earner's historical 'Earner' fixed-yield product was a financial product and a derivative, requiring an Australian Financial Services Licence. This landmark decision establishes that crypto yield products promising structured returns can fall under existing financial services law, regardless of their digital asset nature. While the specific product is no longer offered, the ruling sets a significant precedent for how similar crypto investment and derivative-like offerings will be regulated in Australia. The case now returns to a lower court to determine penalties against Block Earner.

bitcoinistHá 10h