ETF让比特币的问题变得更加严重!

金十Publicado em 2024-01-16Última atualização em 2024-01-16

现货比特币ETF的推出可能对投资者造成双重不利,一个关乎比特币的用途,另一个关乎比特币及其ETF的交易。

《华尔街日报》文章指出,这些ETF破坏了加密货币的真正目的,从而损坏其长期价值。而且,由于ETF推出之时正值加密货币热潮,它们可能会重复许多主题基金的错误,即在高峰时买入。

比特币的初衷是允许小额在线交易,但由于成本高昂和支付流程繁琐而惨遭失败。作为一种加密货币,它也许可以用于更大金额的支付,但目前为止它基本上还没有涉及这个用途。然而,基金持有的比特币越多,可供实际用户使用的比特币就越少。之前实际用户比较少的时候,这不是什么问题,但新推出的ETF肯定会破坏比特币找到实际用途的机会。

许多加密货币倡导者喜欢比特币,因为它不依赖于传统银行、无中介,并且独立于任何国家,这与美元等“法定”货币不同。新的ETF将比特币与华尔街的旧金融机制和美元重新连接起来。

贝莱德(BlackRock)董事长兼首席执行官劳伦斯·芬克(Lawrence Fink)等许多人都在主张,比特币应该是数字黄金,能够在危机中保持其价值。但是,到目前为止,没有证据表明比特币可以作为数字黄金。比特币ETF可能会为其在危机中的糟糕表现雪上加霜比特币本来就是投机性资产,推出ETF后可能会吸引更多投机者。

在2023年3月的银行挤兑和2020年3月的疫情大流行恐慌中,比特币成为了数字傻瓜的黄金,一出现麻烦迹象就暴跌。从2020年2月的高点开始,比特币价格一个月就减半,而标普500指数从高点到低点大概跌去三分之一,黄金下跌了6%。在2023年的银行挤兑中,比特币从2月份的高点到3月份的低点下跌了近20%,是标普500指数的四倍,而黄金仅下跌1%。

自2019年以来,比特币与方舟创新ETF(ARKK)的关系比与黄金价格的关系要密切得多,该基金持有的是最具投机性的科技股。这背后的理由很明显:像ARKK一样,比特币非常适合投机,因为它的价格波动很大。比特币远不是一种价值储存手段,而是一种波动性储存手段。随着越来越多的人参与“赌博”,价格就会上涨。但当出现恐慌时,这会产生不利影响,因为投机者会平仓,引发价格暴跌。

另一个大问题是ETF推出的时机。通常,主题基金只有在投资者抬高标的资产价格后才会推出,从90年代的互联网基金,到2021年的绿色环保、大麻、太空和SPAC基金。投资者应该都知道不宜涌入已经过度热门的投资领域,但他们仍会在高位买入,而且往往最终会低位卖出。

比特币期货ETF也发生了类似的情况。ProShares比特币策略ETF BITO推出的时机是灾难性的,它在2021年比特币非常接近峰值时推出。随着比特币下跌,这个ETF第一年暴跌超过70%。目前它已经有所反弹,但仍然比起始价低了近一半。ProShares指出,它仍然很受欢迎,自新一波现货比特币ETF推出以来的两天内交易量领先。

有意思的是,ProShares后来推出了一只做空比特币的ETF,即BITI。但这又是一个大输家,尽管当时做空比特币很流行,但它几乎是在价格低点的时候推出的。

另外,比特币因ETF推出的预期而大幅上涨,这又为ETF推出后进一步上涨带来了障碍。毫不奇怪,截至上周五晚上,比特币较周三SEC批准ETF上市时的价格下跌了8%。而且,周末期间,比特币跌幅超过1000美元。直接持有者可以继续交易,因为比特币是7*24交易的。但是,那些持有比特币ETF的人只能观望并等待华尔街周二开盘,因为市场周一因马丁·路德·金纪念日休市。

Leituras Relacionadas

Market Trend (June 19): US-Iran Deal Drives Out Geopolitical Premium; Chip Stocks Soar to New Highs; Energy Sector Leads Declines

U.S. Market Trends (June 19): U.S.-Iran Deal Eases Tensions, Chip Stocks Soar, Energy Sector Leads Declines. U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday as the signing of a temporary U.S.-Iran deal in Geneva de-escalated Middle East tensions, with Saudi oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical relief helped markets recover from recent Fed-driven volatility. The S&P 500 rose over 1%, the Nasdaq gained nearly 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another record high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 6% to a historic peak. Chip stocks were the standout performers. Reports of an Apple-Intel design and foundry deal for certain products, alongside mentions of potential Nvidia and SpaceX collaborations with Intel, propelled the sector. Intel surged ~10.5%, while memory chip makers like Micron also saw significant gains, highlighting sustained confidence in long-term AI capital expenditure. In contrast, the energy sector was the day's sole loser, with the S&P 500 energy sub-index declining as WTI crude fell ~2% to around $74.29/barrel. The reopening of key shipping routes erased prior geopolitical risk premiums. SpaceX extended losses for a second day on news of a potential large bond offering. Market volatility (VIX) dropped sharply, indicating a swift reversal of post-Fed jitters. Treasury yields dipped slightly but remained elevated. The focus now shifts to upcoming economic data, including next week's PCE inflation report and Micron's earnings, which will serve as a key test for the AI trade's durability.

marsbitHá 11m

Market Trend (June 19): US-Iran Deal Drives Out Geopolitical Premium; Chip Stocks Soar to New Highs; Energy Sector Leads Declines

marsbitHá 11m

Will MicroStrategy Fall Into a Death Spiral? How Will the Macro Outlook Evolve in the Second Half of the Year?

**Summary:** The discussion centers on recent Bitcoin price declines and the evolving financial strategy of MicroStrategy (MSTR). The core argument is that the primary pressure is not from one-off Bitcoin sales by MSTR, but from the market's new expectation that MSTR may need to engage in *sustained, small-scale* Bitcoin sales to cover cash flow obligations for its growing portfolio of preferred shares and debt instruments (like STRC). This shift is driven by its stated goal of maintaining "bitcoins per share neutrality." The market is now testing whether it can absorb this potential ongoing selling pressure without entering a severe "death spiral" with Bitcoin's price. A resolution may involve MSTR softening its approach to avoid damaging both its stock and Bitcoin. The conversation then explores the parallel rise of AI-related stocks. The guest posits that AI is fundamentally restructuring labor, with "tokens" (representing access to AI models/compute) becoming a new form of capital and a substitute for human execution. This drives corporate efficiency and profits, benefiting upstream hardware providers (semiconductors, data centers), which explains the sustained rally. This represents the early stages of a "machine economy." Regarding crypto exchanges offering US stock trading, this is seen as a natural evolution. With few crypto-native assets generating lasting value, exchanges are pivoting to distribute valuable real-world assets (RWAs). This doesn't necessarily harm crypto's long-term prospects, as blockchain infrastructure may become crucial for future machine-to-machine economies. The analysis concludes that the era of rampant altcoin speculation is likely over, heavily damaged by the liquidity shock of the "1011" event (likely referring to a major market crash). Meme-driven capital has largely migrated to US equities. Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty is rising due to potential large IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and the US elections. While short-term market corrections are possible, the long-term trends of AI-driven productivity gains and the maturation of blockchain towards real-world utility and institutional adoption remain intact.

marsbitHá 15m

Will MicroStrategy Fall Into a Death Spiral? How Will the Macro Outlook Evolve in the Second Half of the Year?

marsbitHá 15m

Will MicroStrategy Fall into a Death Spiral? What Will the Macro Trend Be in the Second Half of the Year?

The podcast features investor Didier discussing the recent Bitcoin downturn and the evolving strategy of MicroStrategy (MSTR). He argues the core pressure is not macro factors or ETF outflows, but the market pricing in an expectation that MSTR will engage in continuous, small-scale Bitcoin sales to fund its increasing preferred stock and debt obligations under its "bitcoin-per-share neutrality" principle. This creates a structural headwind. However, he is cautiously optimistic a "death spiral" is avoidable without new major shocks, as market support is likely to emerge at a certain price point. Didier then posits that the AI-driven bull market in US stocks (semiconductors, data centers) is fundamentally driven by AI agents and tokens becoming the "new labor force," displacing human roles and boosting corporate margins. This shift toward a machine economy is still in its early stages. He comments on crypto exchanges adding US stock trading, viewing it as a natural move toward valuable real-world assets as truly valuable crypto-native assets remain scarce. For crypto-native traders, he suggests existing strategies (e.g., meme-chasing or value investing) can translate to similar assets in US markets. The discussion notes the severe liquidity damage from the "1011 event" (likely referring to a major market crash) has essentially ended the altcoin cycle, with speculative momentum shifting to the more liquid US stock market. Regarding the macroeconomic outlook for H2 2024, Didier expresses increased caution due to potential market pressure from upcoming mega-IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and US midterm election risks. Long-term, he remains bullish on AI's productivity gains and its convergence with blockchain/Web3, which he sees maturing into a more institutional, real-asset-focused phase.

链捕手Há 17m

Will MicroStrategy Fall into a Death Spiral? What Will the Macro Trend Be in the Second Half of the Year?

链捕手Há 17m

Dylan Patel: Founder of SemiAnalysis, Praised by Jensen Huang, is a 'Beekeeper' and 'Forum Enthusiast'

Dylan Patel, founder of the independent research firm SemiAnalysis, has an unconventional background. A former beekeeper from rural Georgia, he entered the semiconductor world as a self-taught "forum warrior," discussing chip technology anonymously online from a young age. He launched the SemiAnalysis blog in May 2020, which later transitioned to a paid subscription model. The firm has grown from a one-person operation to a global team of around 60, with a dedicated teardown lab. Its detailed, technically-focused analysis on semiconductor supply chains, AI infrastructure, and products has earned significant industry recognition. Notably, NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang has publicly cited their reports. In a landmark case, a critical 2024 report on AMD's MI300X GPU software stack led to a 90-minute call with AMD CEO Lisa Su, who thanked him for the constructive feedback. SemiAnalysis later acknowledged AMD's improvements. The firm's influence on markets was seen when a report on NVIDIA's Rubin memory configuration was partially shared, affecting memory stock prices. Dylan Patel emphasized the importance of context, contrasting the shared excerpt with the report's actual title. SemiAnalysis, now a multi-faceted consultancy with revenue projected to reach $100 million, is known for its deep technical insights that influence major industry players and investment decisions.

marsbitHá 1h

Dylan Patel: Founder of SemiAnalysis, Praised by Jensen Huang, is a 'Beekeeper' and 'Forum Enthusiast'

marsbitHá 1h

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片