加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2023-11-03Última atualização em 2023-11-03

Resumo

FTX持有最多的SOL和BTC，近期涨幅较大，是基本面向好还是拉高出货？

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

FTX 拉高出货?

  • FTX 持有较多的币都一致有较大的涨幅，特别是 SOL，其次是 BTC, APT, XRP

  • 媒体高度评价 SOL，<VanEck 長文看多 Solana 估值：預測 2030 年目標價 3, 211 美元>

  • SOL 在 2023.11.02 放量价格冲高回落，波动率放大，短期风险较高

基本面向好?

  • BTC 减半将近

  • BTC 的 ETF 预期

  • 美联储 FOMC 会议没有继续加息

比特币减半距离今天（2023.11.3）还有约 168 天

减半倒计时：https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2024-05-10-12-00?_360safeparam=1289146171

市场技术与情绪环境分析

技术指标

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

情绪分析组成

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

技术指标

价格走势

过去一周 BTC 价格上涨 2.31% ，ETH 价格上涨-0.14% 。

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

上图是 BTC 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

上图是 ETH 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

表格显示过去一个周的价格变化率

价量分布图（支撑阻力）

过去一周价格 BTC 与 ETH 在 FOMC 会议后向上突破随后又跌回密集成交区震荡

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

上图是 BTC 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

上图是 ETH 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

表格显示 BTC 与 ETH 过去一周中每周的密集成交区间

成交量与未平仓量

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 都在 FOMC 会议前后交易量增加；BTC 未平仓量下降，ETH 未平仓量上升。

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

上图最上方 BTC 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

上图最上方 ETH 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

历史波动率与隐含波动率

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 历史波动率在 11.1 最高，隐含波动率上升。

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

黄色线为历史波动率，蓝色线为隐含波动率，红点是其 7 日平均

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

事件驱动

美东时间 11 月 1 日周三，美联储货币政策委员会 FOMC 会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间依然为 5.25% 到 5.50% ，将这一政策利率继续保持在二十二年来高位。关注今晚 11.03 的非农数据公布。

情緒指標

动量情绪

过去一周比特币/黄金/纳指/恒指/A 50 中，纳指最强势，而表现最差的为黄金。

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

上图为不同资产过去一周的走势

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

放贷利率_借贷情绪

过去一周 USD 放贷年化收益平均为 17.5% ，利率稳定。

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

黄色线为 USD 利率的最高价，蓝色线为最高价的 75% ，红色线为最高价的 75% 的 7 天平均值

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

表格显示 USD 利率过去不同持有天数的平均收益

资金费率_合约杠杆情绪

过去一周 BTC 资费平均年化收益为 11% 

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

蓝色线为币安上 BTC 的资金费率，红色线为其 7 日平均

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

表格显示 BTC 的资费过去不同持有天数的平均收益

市场宽度_整体情绪

过去一周选中的 46 个币有 90% 的币在 30 日均线上方，市场维持在上升趋势中。

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

上图为['btc', 'eth', 'bnb', 'ltc', 'bch', 'doge', 'matic', 'sol','link','uni', 'enj','gala', 'mana', 'axs', 'dydx', 'fet' ,'gmx', 'xlm', 'xrp', 'ada', 'trx', 'sol', 'dot', 'avax', 'shib', 'atom', 'xmr', 'etc', 'ldo', 'hbar', 'apt', 'vet', 'qnt', 'vet','crv', 'aave', 'algo', 'ftm', 'ape', 'neo', 'sand', 'eos', 'xtz', 'rndr', 'theta', 'mkr']在 30 日均线上方的占比

市场相关性_一致性情绪

过去一周选中的 46 个币中相关性维持在 0.65 左右，不同品种间产生不一致的行情。

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

上图蓝色先为比特币价格，绿色线为['btc', 'eth', 'bnb', 'ltc', 'bch', 'doge', 'matic', 'sol','link','uni', 'enj','gala', 'mana', 'axs', 'dydx', 'fet' ,'gmx', 'xlm', 'xrp', 'ada', 'trx', 'sol', 'dot', 'avax', 'shib', 'atom', 'xmr', 'etc', 'ldo', 'hbar', 'apt', 'vet', 'qnt', 'vet','crv', 'aave', 'algo', 'ftm', 'ape', 'neo', 'sand', 'eos', 'xtz', 'rndr', 'theta', 'mkr']整体的相关性

市场热点_社交媒体情绪

过去一周热度最高分别的是 ADA/XMR。

加密市场情绪研究报告（10.27-11.3）：FTX清算进行时

数据来源： https://lunarcrush.com/categories/cryptocurrencies

总结

是基本面向好还是拉高出货？唯一确定的是隐含波动率持续上升，波动率将放大；价格走势方面，BTC 经历一波较大涨幅创下历史新高后在高位横盘震荡，而 ETH 在 1800 的位置止步不前，BNB 在较底部的位置震荡；事件方面，美联储 FOMC 维持利率， 11.3 晚将公布非农数据，另外 FTX 即将清算的资产是影响加密市场未来一段时间价格走势的重点。

Twitter: @DerivativesCN

Website: https://dcbot.ai/

Medium:https://medium.com/@DerivativesCN

Leituras Relacionadas

Crossing the 'Memory Wall': The Wafer-Level Revolution and Computing Power Routes in the AI Inference Era

In 2026, a historic shift occurred in AI as major cloud providers' inference spending surpassed training spending for the first time, signaling a move from "building large models" to "using large models." This shifts the core challenge from computing power to the "memory wall"—the bottleneck of data movement (model weights, activations, KV Cache) between external DRAM and processors, where energy and latency from data transfer far exceed computation itself. Companies like Nvidia face GPU idle time due to bandwidth limits. In contrast, Cerebras Systems adopts a radical "wafer-scale" approach with its Wafer-Scale Engine (WSE). Instead of cutting a silicon wafer into many chips, Cerebras uses almost the entire wafer as one massive chip (WSE-3). This design provides 44GB of on-chip SRAM, delivering memory bandwidth thousands of times higher than traditional HBM (e.g., 21 PB/s vs. Nvidia B200). For LLM inference, weights are streamed layer-by-layer from external MemoryX storage to the chip, avoiding HBM bottlenecks. This results in token generation speeds 1.5–5 times faster than Nvidia's B200 in some models and significant advantages in first-token latency and long-context tasks. Additionally, Cerebras's architecture offers much lower interconnect power consumption (0.15 pJ/bit vs. GPU's ~10 pJ/bit). However, Cerebras faces challenges: SRAM scaling has slowed with advanced nodes, limiting future capacity gains; the chip requires specialized liquid cooling and custom software stacks; and its external I/O bandwidth (150 GB/s) is low compared to NVLink, hindering multi-system scaling for very large models. Competition is intensifying. Major players are pursuing three paths: 1) Developing proprietary inference ASICs (e.g., Google TPU, Microsoft Maia), 2) Leveraging advanced packaging (e.g., TSMC's SoW) to democratize wafer-scale-like integration, potentially eroding Cerebras's process advantage within a few years, and 3) Exploring optical interconnects for ultimate bandwidth. Commercially, Cerebras is transitioning from a hardware vendor to a service provider, facing the immense challenge of building high-power, specialized data centers to meet large contracts (e.g., 250MW/year from 2026–2028). In conclusion, the AI inference era presents a fundamental architectural trade-off. Cerebras opts for extreme physical optimization for low-latency, single-task performance, while Nvidia prioritizes versatility and massive cluster throughput. The path forward remains uncertain, with technology and business models still evolving in the race toward advanced AI.

marsbitHá 2m

Crossing the 'Memory Wall': The Wafer-Level Revolution and Computing Power Routes in the AI Inference Era

marsbitHá 2m

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

**Title: Has Bitcoin's Rebound Ended, Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?** **Summary:** Bitcoin's price has declined by 13% this week, signaling a potential return to late-stage bear market conditions. The price fell to around $67k, positioned between the Realized Price and Realized Cap Weighted Average. For the first time since early 2022, the Short-Term Holder cost basis has dropped below this key average, confirming a hallmark of late-cycle bear markets. Profitability metrics have collapsed sharply. The 7-day average of the Realized Profit/Loss ratio plummeted from a local high of 3.16 to 0.29, mirroring the February panic sell-off. Critically, the 90-day average never breached the threshold of 2, indicating the recent rally to $82k was a bear market bounce, not a structural shift. Realized losses surged to $1.35 billion daily, with $770 million coming from Long-Term Holders selling at a loss. This accelerating redistribution of supply from weak to strong hands is a necessary but ongoing process for a market bottom. The rally stalled almost precisely at the aggregate cost basis (~$83k) of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors, turning that level into strong resistance and leaving the average ETF holder underwater again. Spot market flows have turned decisively negative, showing sellers are dominating order books despite the price drop. While a significant futures long liquidation event cleared over $400 million in leverage, providing a potential reset, sustained spot demand is yet to materialize. Options markets continue to price in higher future volatility (Implied Volatility) than recent price action (Realized Volatility) has shown, with a persistent skew towards put options, indicating ongoing demand for downside protection. In conclusion, multiple metrics point to a fragile market structure. Resistance at the ETF cost basis, accelerating realized losses, dominant spot selling, and cautious options pricing all suggest the bear market trend persists. A sustainable recovery likely requires a resurgence of spot demand, ETF holders returning to profit, and a clear reduction in selling pressure.

marsbitHá 3m

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

marsbitHá 3m

TechFlow Intelligence Agency: Anthropic Calls for Global Pause in AI Development While Preparing for Trillion-Dollar IPO; SpaceX IPO Roadshow Heats Up, But S&P 500 Rejects Fast-Track Inclusion

In today's TechFlow Intelligence Briefing, several major tech stories highlight a growing theme of trust and credibility gaps across AI, crypto, and finance. AI company Anthropic has publicly called for a global pause in AI development, citing risks from Claude's "recursive self-improvement." Ironically, this coincides with reports the company is preparing for a massive IPO targeting a near $1 trillion valuation. This perceived hypocrisy, coupled with widespread user complaints about Claude's declining performance, is sparking debate over whether the safety warning is genuine or a competitive tactic. Meanwhile, in a substantive security move, Anthropic open-sourced a framework for AI-powered vulnerability discovery. In the crypto market, Bitcoin's price drop below $61,000 triggered over $1.16 billion in liquidations, flipping the market into a state where more BTC is held at a loss than at a profit, a historical bearish signal. On the corporate front, SpaceX's highly anticipated IPO is generating immense Wall Street excitement, with Goldman Sachs projecting 100x revenue growth by 2030. However, the S&P 500 has refused to fast-track the company's inclusion post-IPO, potentially limiting immediate institutional demand. Separately, ByteDance's AI app Doubao lost over 6 million monthly active users after introducing a subscription model, highlighting the challenges of AI monetization. Other notable developments include Nvidia certifying HBM4 memory from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron; Cloudflare's acquisition of front-end tooling company VoidZero; and its CEO warning that bot traffic now exceeds human traffic online. The underlying narrative connects these events: a trust crisis. From AI firms' contradictory actions and crypto volatility to the clash between SpaceX's hyped narrative and institutional rules, a pattern is emerging where stated intentions and actual practices are increasingly misaligned.

marsbitHá 18m

TechFlow Intelligence Agency: Anthropic Calls for Global Pause in AI Development While Preparing for Trillion-Dollar IPO; SpaceX IPO Roadshow Heats Up, But S&P 500 Rejects Fast-Track Inclusion

marsbitHá 18m

Dalio Warns: AI Boom Shows Signs of a Bubble, Day of Reckoning Will Be the Time of Burst

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the current artificial intelligence investment boom shows classic signs of a bubble, which he expects will eventually burst. In a Bloomberg Television interview, he noted that great technological revolutions often lead to capital inflows that create bubbles, making it difficult for investors and companies to calibrate their spending accurately—either overspending to capture market share or underspending and losing their competitive position. This caution comes amid significant rallies in AI-related assets, particularly chipmakers, driven by soaring demand for data centers and high-bandwidth chips, raising debates about overheating valuations. In contrast, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently asserted that investors embracing the AI wave would see "crazy" returns and dismissed concerns over return on investment for data center spending as outdated. Dalio, however, focuses on the risks in the profit realization phase. He argues that bubbles tend to show signs of破裂 when markets transition from investment to the need for tangible returns, describing the burst as a process of converting paper wealth into cash. While acknowledging AI's intrinsic value, he expressed concern over the future profitability of some AI companies, suggesting the market is repeating a familiar pattern. The 76-year-old billionaire, who fully exited Bridgewater in 2025, has a net worth estimated at $21.5 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

marsbitHá 52m

Dalio Warns: AI Boom Shows Signs of a Bubble, Day of Reckoning Will Be the Time of Burst

marsbitHá 52m

Privacy Coin Crisis of Confidence! ZEC Plunges Over 56% in a Single Day

Zcash (ZEC), a leading privacy-focused cryptocurrency, experienced a severe crash on June 5th, plummeting over 56% in a single day and erasing nearly two months of gains. The flash crash was triggered by the disclosure of a critical zero-knowledge proof vulnerability within Zcash's Orchard privacy pool, which had existed since the pool's launch in May 2022. The flaw theoretically allowed an attacker to forge unlimited ZEC undetectably due to the pool's privacy features. The vulnerability was discovered on May 29th by independent security researcher Taylor Hornby during a proactive audit commissioned by Shielded Labs, utilizing AI-assisted analysis. The Zcash development team responded swiftly, implementing an emergency soft fork to disable Orchard transactions on June 2nd and executing a permanent hard fork fix (NU6.2) on June 3rd. Despite the technical fix, a major crisis of confidence emerged. The core issue is that Orchard's privacy design makes it cryptographically impossible to prove whether the vulnerability was exploited over the past four years, casting permanent doubt on the historical supply integrity of ZEC. While Shielded Labs argues exploitation was unlikely, the inability to provide definitive proof has severely damaged market trust. This sentiment was exacerbated when BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, a prominent ZEC supporter, announced he was selling his entire position. He stated that privacy assets require "perfect security" rather than "probable safety." The combined effect of the disclosure and Hayes's exit ignited widespread panic selling, leading to massive liquidations and significant price decline. Analysts note the event highlights a fundamental tension within privacy coins: the conflict between verifiable supply and cryptographic privacy.

链捕手Há 55m

Privacy Coin Crisis of Confidence! ZEC Plunges Over 56% in a Single Day

链捕手Há 55m

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片

Categorias popularesright-arrow

Etiquetas Popularesright-arrow