[Key interpretation] BTC long-term investors sold the latest evidence of loss, with a loss of more than 20%

Huobi ResearchPublicado em 2022-04-24Última atualização em 2022-04-28

Resumo

BTC's main force fled, and the sluggish trading pushed the market downward.

The latest evidence of BTC's main loss sale, with a loss of more than 20%

1. Number destroyed in currency per day: the number of BTCs transferred increases

From the data of BTC's currency destruction per day, after the most typical index rebound on February 1, 2022, the index frequently reached a high level, suggesting that the shipping intention of medium and long-term investors is increasing.

Numerically, the number of coins destroyed per day on February 1 was 198 million, while the next frequent and continuous peak number of coins destroyed per day could reach 21 million to 58 million. The peak scale of the value is the highest in one year, and the frequency of peak persistence is also high. It lasted as many as nine times in three months, which means that BTC's long-term investors are not optimistic about BTC's holding opportunities of more than $40000.

2. Long term investor SOPR: frequent profitable transactions

SOPR of long-term investors can prompt the profit trading situation of long-term investors, so as to reveal the change of selling pressure and the market trend of BTC price. Although the SOPR index value has been running around 1.5 since 2022, the peak share of SOPR has frequently reached around 3.5, which means that long-term investors with a profit of up to three times are trading BTC. It can be seen that long-term investors have secretly reduced their positions, which has exacerbated investors' bearish sentiment.

The most dangerous thing is that the trading of long-term investors is not only profit-making trading, but also rare loss trading. In other words, among investors who have held money for at least 155 trading days, the SOPR index of trading on April 22 was 0.776, which appeared for the first time since March 29, 2020. This shows that long-term investors change hands on BTC when they lose 22.4% (1-0.776), and the price will break a lot further.

3. Capital cost of BTC purchase: the financing cost is significantly withdrawn

The low financing cost of BTC has become the norm since 2022. As the BTC price continued to retreat, the BTC financing cost reached -0.009 on April 23, the lowest since January 29. This shows that there is no cost for financing to buy BTC. Buying BTC is easier to clinch a deal than selling, indicating that there is insufficient buying and the recent trend of BTC price is not optimistic.

4. BTC daily K line: the trend below the cost price is low

Operating below the cost price of most investors in the past year indicates that the current trend of BTC is relatively low. Judging from the moving average, the average cost price of BTC is not only lower than the 365 day, 120 day and 60 day moving average, but also in the narrow range of US $41700 to US $45600. Since 2021, the price of BTC has been lower than the average price of US $3.65 million, which indicates that the overall price of BTC has been lower than the average price since 2023.

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