长推:宏观观察的情况

MarsBitPublicado em 2023-06-19Última atualização em 2023-06-19

Resumo

简单讲3点,2个危机,1个机会。

注:本文来自@Rocky_Bitcoin 推特,MarsBit整理如下:
明早开投资会,我提前透漏一些宏观观察的情况。
简单讲3点,2个危机,1个机会。
1.危机端:美国债务上限达成,财政部TGA账户要充钱,彭博终端数据预测,到三季度末,要充值1万亿美金,提供未来政府开销。钱从哪里来?这么短时间,只能从其他地方抽流动性,过去15天,抽了1000多亿。
2.危机端:财政部为充值TGA账户,发行的国债短期利率应该不低,可能大于5月4日发行的5.84%短期国债,猜测大概率可能大于6%。当前基准利率是5.07%。那么银行存款准备金可能存在流失,银行危机可能二次重演。商业地产面临市场流动性压力+高利率,可能带来连锁反应(旧金山工作日,CBD金融区基本成了鬼城,来自同学描述)。导致恶化银行坏账率+房地产信托暴雷。
3.机会端,从资产估值来看,美股贵了(前不久发过一个推文,讲到前100最牛科技公司与中小市值企业比率情况👇图);乌克兰战争,欧洲废了;中美关系不确定性,A股恒生外资跑了(恒生我觉得低估了,杀估值大概率结束了);巴菲特都去日本押注日经了,但日本央行下场炒股,这行为不可持续。全球房产也贵了。
难道全都押注美债?现在美债偿息压力巨大,也并不是好事。所以这个关口,加密货币其实是一个好的资金敞口,无论从金融创新角度,还是估值角度,都具备可观的预期。叠加最近贝莱德申请ETF+花旗大摩高盛都长文研究报告鼓吹加密货币,这本身,预示着华尔街,或许正在找新方向破局。
华尔街金融创新的发展逻辑:当一个金融产品容量达到上限或者无利润空间,那就创造新的金融工具和产品,融入更大的资金容量。

BTC


BTC


结论:
逢低买英伟达,押注AI。
逢低买入 BTC+ ETH+百倍名单币种(置顶首页推文)

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