HT Weekly Report(Jan.30-Feb.6)

HuobiPublicado em 2023-02-08Última atualização em 2023-02-08

Resumo

When HT Prospers,Huobi Will Also Prosper.

Welcome to the latest HT weekly report.

Leituras Relacionadas

Survival Guide for Crypto KOLs

The article titled "A Survival Guide for Crypto KOLs" discusses the recent ban on "InfoFi" or "post-to-earn" applications (e.g., Kaito, Cookie) on X (formerly Twitter), which effectively ended the era of easy monetization through engagement farming. It attributes this move to X's desire to reclaim platform control over user attention and ad inventory, noting that the incentive structure had degraded content quality and user experience. The piece outlines both the benefits—like a cleaner feed and a focus on genuine content—and the drawbacks, including immediate economic losses for creators and exposed platform risk. It then provides an updated guide for crypto content creators, emphasizing a shift from quantity to quality. Key recommendations include: 1) Doubling down on high-signal, original content (e.g., deep-dive threads, data-driven analysis). 2) Diversifying platforms (e.g., Substack, YouTube) to mitigate dependency on X. 3) Pursuing direct monetization through brand deals, newsletters, and paid communities. 4) Aligning with professional crypto marketing agencies for distribution. 5) Prioritizing reputation, offline networking, and evergreen content. The conclusion frames the ban as a painful but necessary reset for Crypto Twitter, pushing the ecosystem towards more sustainable and professional content creation models where genuine creators can thrive with less noise.

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Oil Prices Fall Below $80, Bitcoin Yet to Rise: Liquidity Becomes Key Market Driver

Oil prices fell below $80 as a US-Iran peace framework eased tensions, but Bitcoin failed to rally, remaining around $64,900. The article argues that while lower oil removes a key bearish factor for BTC, the primary market drivers have shifted to liquidity conditions, Federal Reserve policy, ETF fund flows, and overall risk appetite. Historically, high oil prices threatened inflation, delaying Fed rate cuts and hurting risk assets like Bitcoin. Now, with oil prices down, Bitcoin's path hinges on whether this translates into lower inflation expectations, softer Treasury yields, and a more dovish Fed stance. Recent FOMC minutes still show concern over energy-driven inflation, keeping financial conditions restrictive. Bitcoin ETF flows showed a slight positive inflow recently, but sustained demand is needed for a meaningful shift. The market requires consistent signals: stable ETF inflows, declining yields, and improving risk sentiment alongside lower oil prices. Without this combination, lower oil alone may not boost BTC. The outlook presents two paths: a recovery if lower oil eases inflation, the Fed turns less hawkish, and ETF demand stabilizes, allowing BTC to reclaim the $66,900-$70,000 range. Conversely, Bitcoin could remain pressured if the peace deal stalls, the Fed remains restrictive, yields stay high, or ETF flows reverse. In summary, for the remainder of 2026, liquidity factors—Fed policy, ETF activity, and investor risk appetite—have surpassed oil prices as the critical determinants of Bitcoin's price trajectory.

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Oil Prices Fall Below $80, Bitcoin Yet to Rise: Liquidity Becomes Key Market Driver

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Full Debut Q&A! Fed Chair Wash: Firmly Adhering to 2% Inflation Target, Establishing Five Special Task Forces, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first FOMC press conference, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% and emphasizing the Committee's unanimous and explicit commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target. Key announcements included significant changes to Fed communication and operations. The policy statement was significantly shortened and, notably, forward guidance was removed. Chair Warsh broke from precedent by declining to submit his own economic forecasts and "dot plot." He announced the immediate formation of five special working groups focusing on: Fed communication, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and employment (including AI's impact), and the inflation framework. These groups, which will include external experts, are tasked with recommending improvements by year-end. One key group will review the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to assess the roles of interest rates versus balance sheet tools in monetary policy. Warsh characterized the current restrictive stance of policy as "uneven," noting its effect on housing but questioning its impact on financial markets where conditions appear less restrictive. He expressed a desire to move away from a "Fed-speak" driven market, arguing that markets should react to economic data rather than Fed commentary to provide better informational signals. On inflation, he stated there is no need to reconsider the 2% target until the Fed re-establishes its commitment and capability to achieve it. Economic projections (SEP) from other officials showed a split on the rate outlook for 2024, with half expecting at least one hike and half forecasting unchanged or lower rates. The median projection saw the federal funds rate at 3.8% by year-end 2024. Following the announcements, risk assets sold off sharply, Treasury yields rose, and the dollar strengthened.

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Full Debut Q&A! Fed Chair Wash: Firmly Adhering to 2% Inflation Target, Establishing Five Special Task Forces, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

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Full First Q&A! Fed Chair Warsh: Sticks to 2% Inflation Target, Establishes Five Special Working Groups, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held its first FOMC meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The central bank issued a significantly shortened policy statement, explicitly removing forward guidance. Chair Warsh delivered a strong, unified commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target, stating the FOMC has the "capability and the commitment" to restore price stability and sees no need to review the target itself at this time. Warsh announced the immediate formation of five special working groups to examine and propose improvements in key areas by year-end: Fed communication, the balance sheet (including a review of the $6.7 trillion portfolio and its role in policy), data sources and methodology, productivity and employment (including AI's impact), and the inflation framework. In a break from tradition, Chair Warsh did not submit his own economic projections or "dot plot." The submitted Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a split among other officials: half anticipate at least one rate hike this year, while half expect rates to remain steady or fall. The median projection sees the federal funds rate at 3.8% by year-end 2026. Warsh characterized the current policy stance as "uneven," noting restrictive effects in sectors like housing but less so in financial markets. He emphasized a desire to move away from a market dynamic overly focused on Fed signaling, advocating for markets to react more to economic data. On AI, he called it potentially the most significant economic change in his adult life, driving clear demand but with uncertain timing and scale on the supply side, creating a "race" between the two.

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Full First Q&A! Fed Chair Warsh: Sticks to 2% Inflation Target, Establishes Five Special Working Groups, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

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The DeepSeek Financing Story

DeepSeek's financing round, totaling approximately 3 billion USD, concluded recently, revealing details about the process and key investors. The round was initiated around April with strict initial terms: a minimum commitment of 5 billion RMB, no syndication, and a pure RMB structure. These were later relaxed, with the minimum ticket size reduced to 1.5 billion RMB. A pivotal four-hour online investor meeting in mid-May served as the primary interaction for many backers with DeepSeek's founder, Liang Wenfeng. Despite not being a naturally eloquent speaker, Liang's philosophy deeply resonated. He consistently emphasized the company's singular focus on AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), the principle of "less is more," extreme caution in spending, and the paramount importance of team stability. His notable quotes included describing the team as "ordinary people doing extraordinary things" and stating that "AGI is a big enough thing; everything else is just process." The final investor list featured 10 entities, but underlying fund structures indicate participation from nearly 100 institutions and individuals. Notable lead investors include Monolith Capital (increasing its commitment from 1.5 to 3 billion RMB), Zhenxingu Capital, IDG Capital, and state-affiliated investors like Guozhitou. Conspicuously absent were major firms like Sequoia China and Hillhouse Capital, despite earlier speculation about their involvement. A core condition set by Liang Wenfeng for all investors, whether corporate or venture capital, was a strict prohibition against poaching DeepSeek employees or encouraging them to leave to start ventures. The financing process highlighted DeepSeek's unexpected openness to external capital, surprising many in the investment community. The company's low-profile nature, combined with its ambitious AGI vision and principled approach, fostered a sense of reverence among participating investors, many of whom were reluctant to discuss the deal publicly, preferring to maintain its discreet and purposeful ethos.

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