【劲爆数据】空头爆仓5.88亿美元，BTC多头占比维持高位

火必研究院Publicado em 2022-03-29Última atualização em 2022-04-01

Resumo

从交易所BTC存量变化看，2月份到3月份的流出数量增加，表明BTC的抛售压力继续减轻。

本栏目梳理日内现货市场和期货市场的交易状态，分析BTC及整体市场的交投表现。帮助投资者挖掘有效交易信号。

行情观点

BTC和ETH等主流币持续反弹期间，已经触及1年来投资者的成本价。目前来看，过去一年中交易的投资者多数获利，使得行情进一步向上的动力增强。目前趋势对多头有利，合约仓位达到近期高位，表明做多意愿提升。

现货

1、交易所BTC存量

交易所BTC存量下降到了3月28日的231.5万枚BTC。从交易所BTC存量变化看，2月份到3月份的流出数量增加，表明BTC的抛售压力继续减轻。尽管近期BTC存量出现反弹迹象，但是反弹空间不大。交易所BTC存量最高达到了231.98后回撤，说明BTC抛压小幅增加以后回落，短线看多BTC趋势。

2、全网市值和交易量

过去24小时整体市场交易量为1254.3亿美元，整体市值增幅为1.5%到22406亿美元。关注过去3个月内整体市场的交易量和市值表现，全网市值波动空间在16423亿美元到23877亿美元之间，当前市值几乎为3个月内最高峰。市值连续变化的形态上，表现为双底反转，提升看多信号。

合约

BTC等主流币的合约交易能够发现现货价格，提升价格运行方向。同时，也能够为现货投资者提供套期保值的方法。分析合约多空持仓方向、仓位变化以及杠杆率表现，可以帮助我们确认交易信号。

1、全网爆仓统计

爆仓数量提示了价格运行期间行情阻力释放的效果，爆仓数量越大，说明反向的资金实力越大。过高的爆仓金额短时间出现以后，也可以提示价格反转信号。因为资金在短时间内增加爆仓反向的持仓数量，推动行情短时间内反转运行。

全网合约爆仓

3月29日，全网合约空单爆仓达0.62亿美元，全网多单爆仓达0.11亿美元。3月27日以来的3个交易日内，空单爆仓规模达2.44亿美元、3.13亿美元和0.31亿美元，同期，多单爆仓规模为0.62亿美元、1.79亿美元和0.11亿美元。空单累计爆仓5.88亿美元，意味着多头实力强劲，市场在近期呈现出单边趋势倾向。

2、全网持仓和成交额统计

全网合约成交量表现稳定，3月29日的持仓量回升到420亿美元，相对1月23日最低286.7亿美元大幅增长46.5%；成交额为1400亿美元。值得注意的是，合约仓位是1年内最高水平，预示着整体市场热度正在持续增长。

3、交易所多空持仓统计

交易所多空持仓占比直观体现了多空实力，动态的多空占比更好的验证了买卖信号。多方持仓占比较多的时候，提示买方实力较强，BTC价格易涨难跌。相反，则空头实力较强，提示了做空信号。

3月29日，BTC多空单比例为1 %，多单占比50.06%，而空单占比为49.94%。多方占比优势从3月22日以后连续占优势，推动BTC价格继续上行。目前来看，BTC多头占比有小幅下降迹象，短线可关注低吸机会。

4、合约资金费率

合约资金费率越高，表明多头对价格上涨的信息更大。BTC最新的资金费率数值显示，2022年以来资金费率波动空间较小，更多交易日的融资成本低于0，意味着投资者融资买入BTC的成本很低。

在低买入成本推动下，BTC价格震荡企稳。同时，融资成本也出现了小幅回升迹象。最新3余29日的融资成本达到了0.0085。从绝对值来看，数值远低于2021年11月4日以前的水平。这说明，资金主力有足够低的成本优势，来买入BTC和推升价格涨幅。

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