# Insurance Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Insurance", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

La Liga Team Bets $1 Million Against Themselves Before Match: Does Using Prediction Markets for Insurance Comply with Sports Regulations?

A Spanish La Liga club, reportedly Osasuna, purchased insurance against relegation and was linked to a transaction of over $1 million on the prediction market platform Kalshi, betting against its own victory in a crucial season-ending match. While Osasuna confirmed buying €1.2 million insurance for a potential €6 million payout in case of relegation through broker Howden, it did not confirm involvement with Kalshi. The reported trade involved intermediaries like Game Point Capital and Greenlight Commodities, with quant firm Susquehanna as the counterparty. This incident highlights the blurring line between financial hedging and gambling in prediction markets. Such markets allow trading on future event outcomes, like sports results. In the US, Kalshi operates as a regulated event contract market under the CFTC. However, Spanish authorities recently initiated penalties against Kalshi and Polymarket, considering their activities unlicensed gambling. The case raises core questions about prediction markets: who can trade, how insider information is handled, and whether participants can influence outcomes, especially in sports where results are human-driven. While leagues like La Liga and Serie A have partnered with Polymarket in North America, the regulatory clash and potential for conflicts of interest, as seen in this club's alleged transaction, present significant challenges as prediction markets evolve toward institutional risk management.

Foresight NewsYesterday 10:19

La Liga Team Bets $1 Million Against Themselves Before Match: Does Using Prediction Markets for Insurance Comply with Sports Regulations?

Foresight NewsYesterday 10:19

‘Withdraw Insurance to Buy Stocks’: South Koreans Over 60 Are Borrowing to Bet on Samsung

South Korea's stock market has seen a frenzy, with the KOSPI nearly doubling in six months. This boom is fueled by a surge in retail investors borrowing to buy stocks, with outstanding margin loans hitting a record high. A significant portion of this debt is held by people over 50, with the 60+ age group seeing the fastest growth. Many are reportedly cashing out savings-type life insurance policies—even at a loss—to fund their stock investments. They are heavily concentrated in major semiconductor stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which have driven most of the market's gains. This trend is particularly risky for older investors, who are leveraging their limited retirement savings. While a market correction in March caused significant losses for leveraged accounts, the swift recovery and continued rally have reinforced risky behavior. Stories of quick profits on platforms like Blind further fuel the speculative rush. The phenomenon is partly driven by economic anxiety. With South Korea having a high elderly poverty rate and a low public pension replacement rate, some seniors see the booming market as a last chance to improve their finances. This "FOMO" (fear of missing out) sentiment is palpable, even in public parks where retirees gather and now discuss stock tips alongside their usual activities. Despite regulatory warnings and the inherent risks of leverage—especially for those with little time to recover from losses—the borrowing binge continues. The market's heavy reliance on a few tech stocks and its cyclical nature pose a substantial threat to these elderly investors, for whom a downturn could be catastrophic.

marsbit05/21 04:16

‘Withdraw Insurance to Buy Stocks’: South Koreans Over 60 Are Borrowing to Bet on Samsung

marsbit05/21 04:16

‘TACO’ Is Outdated, Wall Street Embraces ‘NACHO’ Trading

The Wall Street trading meme "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) is being replaced by "NACHO" (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens), signaling a major shift in market expectations. TACO bets anticipated de-escalation from political figures, but this pattern broke on March 23rd when a Trump social media post claiming progress with Iran was denied by Tehran, causing a sharp but temporary market reversal. Since then, markets have adopted a NACHO mindset, betting the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for an extended period. This view is reflected in three key markets. First, war risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the strait have skyrocketed. Second, the oil futures curve shows a steep backwardation, with near-term prices far exceeding long-dated contracts, indicating expectations for a prolonged but not permanent supply crunch. Third, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for 2026 have been priced out to zero due to persistent oil-price inflation. While the S&P 500 continues hitting record highs, the market internally reflects NACHO's impact. The energy sector ETF (XLE) has vastly outperformed the transportation sector ETF (IYT), as high oil prices directly benefit producers but squeeze transport and logistics companies' margins. The NACHO trade has a concrete deadline. Analysts warn global commercial oil inventories could reach critical "operational pressure" levels by early June. If the strait remains closed into September, OECD stocks may fall below the operational floor. Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability to the strait reopening before June. The market has shifted from reacting to political headlines to pricing in the physical realities of oil supply and inventory clocks.

marsbit05/09 04:16

‘TACO’ Is Outdated, Wall Street Embraces ‘NACHO’ Trading

marsbit05/09 04:16

Not Speculation but a Necessity: The 4 Unique Values of Prediction Markets

Polymarket's recent $4 billion funding round and soaring valuation of $15 billion highlight the explosive growth of prediction markets, with trading volume reaching $25.7 billion in March 2026—a 10.6% monthly increase. This analysis argues that prediction markets serve critical non-speculative functions, positioning them as essential tools rather than mere gambling platforms. Prediction markets offer four unique values: entertainment consumption, insurance-like protection, risk hedging, and truth discovery. Firstly, they stimulate economic activity by engaging users in event-based betting, similar to the broader sports industry. Secondly, they act as a form of decentralized insurance, allowing users to hedge against specific, well-defined risks (e.g., weather events) transparently and without traditional overhead costs. Thirdly, institutions and individuals use these markets to hedge against geopolitical and commodity price risks, as demonstrated during the U.S.-Iran conflict and the launch of 24/7 commodity markets on platforms like Kalshi. Finally, prediction markets counter media bias by aggregating crowd-sourced information, often achieving 30% higher accuracy than surveys due to users' vested interests. Experts like Bitwise’s Jeff Park and SIG’s Jeff Yass emphasize the markets' role in risk transfer and financial innovation. As these platforms evolve, they are poised to become trillion-dollar markets, offering more reliable, decentralized mechanisms for information pricing and risk management.

marsbit04/21 12:41

Not Speculation but a Necessity: The 4 Unique Values of Prediction Markets

marsbit04/21 12:41

If You Bought One Deep OTM Bitcoin Put Option Every Month Since 2018, Could You Make Money in the Long Run?

Based on a systematic backtest from 2018 to 2026, this study examines the long-term profitability of a monthly strategy of buying one deep out-of-the-money (OTM) put option on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with a target delta of 0.01 and a 30-day expiration. The results are highly divergent. The strategy is not a stable source of profit but a classic, path-dependent tail insurance tool characterized by extreme right skew, very low win rates, and severe drawdowns. For BTC, the strategy yielded a final total return of 97.62% (CAGR: 8.66%), while for ETH, it resulted in a -73.07% loss (CAGR: -14.78%). The performance difference is attributed to BTC's extreme payouts being sufficient to cover the long-term cost of premiums, whereas ETH's were not. Key characteristics of the strategy include: * Extremely low win rates (BTC: 2.04%, ETH: 1.02%). * Catastrophic maximum drawdowns (BTC: -97.24%, ETH: -93.82%). * The median trade return was -100% for both assets. * Profits are driven entirely by a few extreme winning trades, with the top 5 trades contributing over 10x the net profit for BTC. * Notably, not all major market crashes (e.g., March 2020, LUNA, FTX) resulted in profitable positions due to timing and strike price placement. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that a delta of 0.02 offered a more balanced risk-return profile across metrics. The strategy is best suited for investors who can tolerate years of continuous losses, view it as portfolio insurance rather than a primary alpha generator, and seek convexity against extreme downside events. It is not suitable for those seeking stable returns or with low risk tolerance.

marsbit03/16 11:11

If You Bought One Deep OTM Bitcoin Put Option Every Month Since 2018, Could You Make Money in the Long Run?

marsbit03/16 11:11

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