Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | jk
On January 7, 2026, a seemingly absurd but repeatedly effective intelligence indicator has drawn global attention. According to social media monitoring, pizza orders near the Pentagon have surged by 1250% in the past 48 hours, a figure nearly double the 700% increase seen just before the military action in Venezuela. This is the "Pentagon Pizza Index," a remarkable indicator, and its underlying implication is that the United States is brewing new military operations.
Pizza Orders and Military Intelligence?
The concept of the Pentagon Pizza Index dates back to 1990, when Frank Meeks, the owner of a Domino's Pizza in the Washington area, noticed a peculiar phenomenon: on the evening of August 1, 1990, the Central Intelligence Agency ordered a record 21 pizzas, and the next day, Iraq invaded Kuwait.
Moreover, this pattern has repeated:
- Before the Panama operation in December 1989, orders surged from 30-35 to over 100;
- During President Clinton's impeachment hearings and the "Desert Fox" operation in Iraq in December 1998, extra cheese pizza orders from the White House increased by 32%.
The logic behind this is very simple: during high-pressure crisis moments, Department of Defense (now the War Department, renamed by Trump) staff often need to work 16-20 hours consecutively, and pizza is cheap, filling, and easy to deliver, making it the go-to choice for overtime work.
Today, there are dedicated websites monitoring six pizza shops near the Pentagon in real-time, including Papa John's and Domino's. Currently, these websites are all showing crazy multiples, ranging from 150% to 1250%.
What About Before the Venezuela Operation?
In the early hours of January 3, 2026, U.S. forces launched a raid in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, successfully capturing President Maduro and his wife. Just hours before the operation, the Papa John's pizza shop near the Pentagon was unusually busy.
This was not a sudden military action either; the U.S. began a large-scale military buildup in the Caribbean region in August 2025: August: The USS Iwo Jima amphibious assault ship group arrived; November: The USS Ford aircraft carrier strike group arrived; Totaling about 15,000 U.S. military personnel, the largest military deployment in the region in generations. So, Pentagon staff worked overtime, causing all nearby pizza shops to work overtime as well.
A 1250% Increase: Who Is the Next Target?
Latest data from Sunday evening shows activity at the Papa John's pizza shop 2.3 miles from the Pentagon surged by 476%, while the closer Extreme Pizza saw a 200% increase. The peak increase of 1250% compared to the lowest point set a new historical record.
The Trump administration has stated this is part of its "Don-roe Doctrine." This is a metaphor for a modernized version of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, an advanced version of MAGA. Trump declared on Saturday: "American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again."
Based on the latest statements from Trump and his senior officials, the following countries and regions may be the next targets:
- Greenland: Trump emphasized the U.S. needs Greenland to ensure national security. Prediction markets show the probability of the U.S. "controlling any part of Greenland" has risen from less than 20% last week to 38%. The Danish government is currently in "full crisis mode."
- Cuba: Secretary of State Rubio warned that the Cuban government "is in big trouble." He pointed out that Maduro's bodyguards were Cuban, and 32 Cuban officers were killed in the Venezuela operation. Trump said: "Cuba looks like it's about to collapse."
- Colombia: Trump directly threatened: "Colombia is also very sick, run by a sick man who likes to make cocaine and sell it to the United States, and he won't be doing that much longer." When asked if military action was considered, Trump replied: "Sounds good."
- Iran: After Trump threatened to "hit Iran hard," prediction markets estimate a 54% probability that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei will step down before next year.
How Are These Countries Responding?
Colombian President Petro has shown a tough stance. He was reportedly quoted in November 2025 saying: "Brother, if you want to put me in jail, see if you can." Recently, he announced that any commander who prefers the American flag over the Colombian flag will be immediately dismissed from the army.
The Cuban government has held two days of national mourning for the 32 officers killed in the Venezuela operation, clearly remaining highly alert to Rubio's warnings.
Meme and Prediction Markets: Already One Step Ahead
When it comes to such events, meme markets and prediction markets are always the quickest to move.
On Polymarket, the market for "Trump 'acquiring' Greenland by 2027" is highly sensitive. The probability in this market rose from about 7% on December 28 to the current 14%, a gain of 7 percentage points, with trading volume exceeding $2.1 million. This rise coincided with the timing of the Venezuela operation.
The "US strikes Cuba by xx date" market shows a阶梯式 probability distribution: only 2% by January 31, 8% by March 31, but jumps to 20% by the end of the year. The loss of 32 Cuban officers in the Venezuela operation could be the trigger for U.S. action.
The "US strikes Colombia by xx date" market shows a more aggressive probability curve: 3% by end of January, 7% by end of March, 15% by year-end.
Simultaneously, related memes have already appeared, such as Pentagon Pizza Watch (PPW); this is a logo featuring a glowing pizza hovering over a green pentagon, adorned with missile elements.
In terms of market performance, PPW saw a 78.20% gain in one week, with a 24-hour trading volume of $114,369, ranking 3689th in market capitalization.
Here, we strongly recommend reading this Odaily article: "When War is Settled Before the News: How Prediction Markets 'Priced' the Maduro Capture 6 Days Early."
