Original / Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author / Wenser(@wenser2010)
As a "cryptocurrency barometer," Strategy's stock price has always affected market nerves, and its performance is closely linked to key factors such as cash flow stability and index status. The latest news shows that from December 15 to 21, Strategy raised $748 million by selling common stock, increased its cash reserves to $2.19 billion, and has suspended Bitcoin purchases; the company currently holds Bitcoin worth approximately $60 billion.
The key question facing the crypto market and Strategy now is: when will the stock price break free from its downtrend? And when should investors position themselves in MSTR stock? Odaily Planet Daily will provide a brief analysis through the following three questions.
First Question: The Origin of Strategy's Decline - The MSCI Index Exclusion Controversy
Looking back at Strategy's stock price decline in the third and fourth quarters, aside from the systemic shock and downward trend in the industry brought by the "October 11th Crash" and the shrinking buying power in the crypto market, the most direct trigger was actually the牵连 (involvement) in the "Strategy may be excluded from the MSCI index" incident in October.
Strategy's Current Status: Over $10.114 Billion in Unrealized Gains, Annual Return Rate About 24%
According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, as of December 22, Strategy (MSTR) still holds 671,268 BTC, worth $60.441 billion, with an average cost of $74,972 per coin, resulting in $10.114 billion in unrealized gains. In contrast, ETH treasury龙头 (leading) company BitMine has an average ETH holding cost as high as $3,884, resulting in $3.37 billion in unrealized losses. In this regard, the resilience of BTC compared to ETH is still evident.
On December 15, Strategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor stated that Strategy holds 671,268 bitcoins, purchased at an average price of $74,972, with a year-to-date Bitcoin return rate of 24.9%. Judging from the book data, Strategy remains an excellent blue-chip stock.
Although, looking at the overall data of BTC treasury companies, limited by BTC's -6% annual decline, according to a BitcoinTreasuries.net report, in 2025, only one Bitcoin treasury company's stock performance surpassed the benchmark S&P 500 index (with a year-to-date return of 16%), namely France-based The Blockchain Group, whose stock price has surged about 164% since January 1st. In comparison, Strategy's stock price fell 12%, Metaplanet's stock price fell nearly one-third, and Nakamoto, which raised over $600 million to buy Bitcoin, has seen its market value plummet by over 98%.
MSCI Index Exclusion Controversy: Proposal to Ban Companies with Digital Asset Holdings Exceeding 50%
In October this year, after responding to client inquiries, MSCI proposed a plan to exclude companies whose digital asset holdings account for 50% or more of their total assets from its global benchmark indices. MSCI believes that such companies are more like investment funds, and funds are not included in its index system.
This move quickly drew criticism and rebuttals from related companies: Strategy warned that this would lead to剧烈波动 (violent fluctuations) in the indices and run counter to the U.S. government's policy of promoting digital asset innovation; additionally, Strategy strongly urged the MSCH stock index committee to abandon the proposal; many related companies stated that they are companies engaged in actual operations and developing innovative products, and that the proposal unfairly discriminates against the crypto industry.
A heated debate ensued: MSCI argued that digital asset reserve (DATs) companies like Strategy and BitMine resemble investment funds more than traditional operating businesses; Strategy pointed out that because IFRS reporting companies can account for Bitcoin at cost, while U.S. GAAP requires quarterly fair value marking, this rule is difficult to apply consistently. If Bitcoin prices fluctuate or accounting standards differ, companies holding Bitcoin assets will "violently enter and exit" major indices, causing chaos for index providers and investors.
Market reactions were mixed, with significant disagreement.
Potential Impact of Strategy's MSCI Exclusion: Could Lead to Up to $15 Billion in Crypto Sales
After the MSCI index exclusion controversy emerged, various institutional analysts gave their opinions:
- JPMorgan analysts estimated that if Strategy is removed from the MSCI index, index-tracking passive funds might be forced to sell up to $2.8 billion worth of Strategy stock, leading to about $2.8 billion in passive capital outflows from the market.
- If MSCI proceeds with its plan to remove crypto asset treasury companies from its indices, related companies could be forced to sell up to $15 billion worth of cryptocurrency. The group "BitcoinForCorporations," which opposes MSCI's proposal, predicted based on a "verified preliminary list" of 39 companies with a total adjusted free-float market capitalization of $113 billion, would face outflows of $10 to $15 billion; Strategy accounts for 74.5% of this total adjusted free-float market capitalization.
- Some analysts stated that this move could cost the heavily Bitcoin-hoarding company up to about $9 billion in stock demand and weaken the appeal of the entire sector.
- In December, Strategy safely passed the Nasdaq 100 index adjustment, which was its first successful test since joining the index last December.
- Wall Street investment banks Jefferies and TD Cowen analysts noted that if Strategy is ultimately excluded by MSCI, other indices in the global financial market might follow suit, mainly including: the Nasdaq 100 index, the CRSP US Total Market Index, and the FTSE Russell index under the London Stock Exchange Group.
- As of December 20, the Nasdaq 100 index has retained Strategy, CRSP declined to comment on whether it is considering removing Strategy, and a spokesperson for the London Stock Exchange Group said they are monitoring the matter, but any consultation response would follow its internal governance processes.
- Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le have written to MSCI, arguing that the company is an operating entity, not a passive investment vehicle.
Currently, MSCI is conducting a public consultation and will announce its final decision on January 15 next year.
Second Question: The Lindy Effect Validation Mark in the DAT Field: Can Strategy Be "Too Big to Fail"?
The Lindy Effect suggests that the longer a thing has existed, the more likely it is to continue existing in the future.
For example, classic works like the Bible and the Analects are more likely to be passed down than current bestsellers or网红自传 (internet celebrity autobiographies).
Previously, Strategy founder Michael Saylor boldly claimed, "If MicroStrategy can accumulate 5% of Bitcoin's total supply, the Bitcoin price will reach $1 million. He further stated that if the holding ratio reaches 7%, each Bitcoin will be worth $10 million." He described this behavior as providing upward momentum for the network.
Previously, BitMine chairman Tom Lee analyzed and affirmed Strategy's move to "build a $1.4 billion cash reserve," believing: "Although Strategy's stock price has fallen more than 50% in the past 6 months, this cash reserve will allow the company to continue paying shareholder dividends during Bitcoin price declines without selling its $61 billion Bitcoin holdings." He also pointed out that during the previous Bitcoin downturn cycle, Strategy's stock traded below its net asset value (NAV), and building a cash reserve is preparation for such a situation.
According to TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza, Strategy needs to pay approximately $824 million in interest and dividends annually.
Considering the news that Strategy's cash reserves have increased to $2.19 billion, Strategy's "cash flow crisis" can be delayed until at least the second half of 2027.
Third Question: Is There Still Buying Interest for Strategy Stock? Billionaire Funds and National-Level Funds Are Still Buying
In addition to the shareholder information from Q3 mentioned in our previous article "Stock Price Halved but Gets Long-Term Capital Bet, Unveiling Strategy's 'Mysterious Shareholder Group'", Strategy stock has recently seen decent buying interest in the market. The latest news today shows that the daily trading volume of Strategy (MSTR) has surpassed that of banking giant JPMorgan. Furthermore, other buyers are also funds with large asset management scales:
Billionaire's Hedge Fund Buys Over 390,000 MSTR Shares, Worth $65 Million
On December 17, billionaire Steve Cohen's hedge fund Point72 Asset Management purchased 390,666 shares (approximately $65 million) of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) stock.
South Korea's National Pension Service: Strategy Stock Holdings Increase to $93 Million
On December 10, BitcoinTreasuries.NET disclosed that South Korea's National Pension Service (NPS), with assets of $1 trillion, has increased its holdings in the Bitcoin-holding listed company Strategy (MSTR) to $93 million.
Conclusion: January 15th Might Be the Final Moment to Buy MSTR Stock
Previously, although Citi significantly lowered the target price for Bitcoin treasury listed company Strategy's stock from $485 to $325, it still maintained its "buy" rating, showing capital institutions' long-term confidence in the MSTR target. And on January 15 next year, whether the MSCI index will continue to include Strategy or not will likely be the final ruling moment for buying MSTR stock.
Before that, choosing to buy the dip or wait for the right moment depends on the investor's personal risk preference.
