Original |Odaily Planet Daily(@OdailyChina)
Author |Golem(@web3_golem)
How much market credibility does Arthur Hayes have left? Recently, Arthur Hayes, the "Father of Crypto Perpetual Contracts" and co-founder of BitMEX, has faced public criticism, with on-chain detective ZachXBT also publicly questioning how much exit liquidity he has created using his followers.
Liquidated HYPE, NEAR, WLD
Starting last week, Arthur Hayes performed several unannounced selling operations to exit the top.
Arthur Hayes had repeatedly publicly stated that HYPE would rise to 150 dollars in this cycle. On June 1, Arthur Hayes was passionately criticizing and making a 100, 000 dollars bet with Kyle Samani, former co-founder of Multicoin Capital, for disparaging Hyperliquid. However, just 3 days later, Arthur Hayes announced he had completely liquidated his HYPE and NEAR holdings, with HYPE falling over 13.6% that day. His sell-off successfully exited at the top; HYPE hit a new high of 75.5 dollars on June 4 before falling continuously, currently trading around 62-64 dollars.
In addition to selling HYPE and NEAR, Arthur Hayes also liquidated ZEC and WLD. His liquidation of ZEC might be somewhat justified due to the Orchard Pool attack, but his selling of WLD resembled a classic "KOL cutting retail" operation: secretly accumulating, publicly shilling, and finally selling at a pumped price.
Because from publicly shilling WLD to liquidating WLD, Arthur Hayes only "acted" for 3 days. On June 3, the day before selling HYPE, Arthur Hayes publicly called for WLD to reach 10 dollars, suggesting WLD would become an alternative for investors who find it difficult to directly participate in SpaceX equity trading. After the news spread, WLD rose over 35% that day. But by June 6, Arthur Hayes changed his tune, stating he had sold all his WLD because SpaceX's pre-market price movement was "anomalous." This single, light explanation caused WLD to drop over 20% that day.
The difference between Arthur Hayes and "third-rate KOLs" is that he writes essays, often justifying his actions from the perspectives of macroeconomics and top-level design.
On June 9, Arthur Hayes published a lengthy essay, Reality Test (taking about 20 minutes to read fully), explaining his recent moves. He argued that three factors—rising energy costs due to restricted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the IPOs of the three major AI stocks (SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI), and Trump turning against AI for mid-term elections—would burst the AI bubble.
Based on this, his family office Maelstrom holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers and has sold AI-related stocks and non-core crypto assets, holding only BTC and ETH.
Arthur Hayes' Words Shouldn't Be Heeded, But His Actions Must Be Watched
Arthur Hayes' articles are not only adept at using a large amount of economic data and charts to argue points but sometimes also overlay political and historical perspectives, leaving people dazzled. But when you take his words seriously and invest real money following his moves, he might announce the next day that he has liquidated and started talking down, seemingly forgetting what he said the day before, and your portfolio takes a simultaneous hit.
Such operations are common. As early as 2025, Arthur Hayes repeatedly played the "bullish one moment, liquidating the next" script. The most classic example remains HYPE. In August 2025, during a speech at WebX Japan, Arthur Hayes touted HYPE, claiming the token still had up to 126x upside potential (Odaily Note: price was 45.9 dollars that day), but just one month later, he announced he had sold all HYPE for millions in profit, citing the need to avoid token unlock risks.
This sale by Arthur Hayes was precisely at the peak of HYPE's last bull run, after which HYPE fell continuously. It wasn't until mid-January 2026 that Arthur Hayes started buying HYPE again on a large scale. Judging from the price action, his entry point was again the low point of this cycle's rally.
Similar examples include ETHFI and ENA, all involving public bullish statements, followed by unannounced sales, achieving precise exits at the top.(Related reading:You Ran Again First! A Review of Arthur Hayes' Exit Records)
Long-term followers of Arthur Hayes have summarized a methodology: Arthur Hayes' words shouldn't be listened to, but his actions must be closely watched. Follow his accumulation cautiously, but sell decisively when he does.
However, if Arthur Hayes continues such performances, especially cases like this WLD price manipulation, no matter how reasonable the excuses are disguised, his market credibility will be threatened. It's like a crypto version of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf." In the end, Arthur Hayes will inevitably face backlash.
One sentence in his latest published article is correct—"I am still an unabashed gambler," and gamblers generally don't end well.
