Last night, one piece of non-farm payroll data was positive while another was negative, effectively canceling each other out. Wall Street is currently focused on January's data, as it relates to whether there will be a rate cut in January. After the non-farm data was released last night, the prediction market saw a slight increase in expectations for a January rate cut, but the magnitude was not significant.
Bitcoin has continued to weaken and adjust over the past 4 hours, with no clear signals of a halt in the decline or support being found. We will wait until the 19th, after the Bank of Japan's rate hike, to see the market's reaction.
BTC
From a daily chart perspective, BTC has broken below the trend line, and the MACD has formed a death cross, indicating potential for further decline. The daily chart still shows a bearish pattern, so it is advisable to go short at resistance levels.
The monthly Bollinger Band mid-line at 88,800 was breached this week and has now turned into resistance. Therefore, we are now looking at the 45-day Bollinger Band mid-line, which corresponds to 77,250. This month, consider entering a small long position in the range of 78,800–77,250.
The 20-day chart shows a rounding top formation, with downward momentum strengthening. Its support points are the Bollinger lower band at 80,250 and the EMA52 (around 75,000). If the price breaks below 77,000, the key accumulation range for this decline will be 75,000–74,600.
ETH
Currently in a 10–15 day correction phase within a monthly adjustment cycle. The 10-day correction is not yet over, and the MACD fast line is about to hit zero, which could accelerate the decline when it reaches the zero axis. The EMA7/30/52 have all been broken, with only the Bollinger lower band at 2,228 providing short-term support.
The 20-day chart has formed a death cross and is now on a 5-day losing streak, with the price slightly below the mid-band and far from the lower band. The primary support is the EMA52 (2,752). If this breaks, the low could test the June low of 2,112 (indicating a proportional correction and the end of the right-side adjustment). The monthly mid-band has been broken, but the lower band at 1,620 is too far to be effective. The effective support is the EMA52 (2,508).
The阶段性 bottom range for this phase: 2,222–2,112. The range of 2,752–2,680 offers some support and could serve as a short-term accumulation zone if there are no major negative catalysts causing an extreme drop.
Currently trading between the 10, 15, 20-day and monthly Bollinger mid and lower bands. Their lower bands are all in the range of 114–102, which can serve as one reference for accumulation.
All the 10, 15, 20-day EMA7-30 have been broken, offering no support.
The monthly EMA52 is at 109.5. Therefore, the accumulation range before the 100 level is broken is 114–102.
Considering extreme scenarios where a sharp spike might briefly break below 100, the levels after a false break of 100 would be 96.25–95.65. A break below 95 would be considered a real break, and the price could then fall to around 86.25–84.85.
PTB
PTB is a token I wouldn't dare touch. It's like a single-player coin—going long or short is risky, and the risk-reward ratio is very low. You might get a quick profit if you're fast, but if you're slow, you'll get hit. In short, greed will eventually lead to losses. It can pump quickly and then drop over 40% in a single spike.
IR
Total supply: 1 billion, initial circulating supply: 20.5%, pool price: 0.1
Pros: 1. Strong funding background—invested by Yzi Lab, co-founder of Bera. 2. Protocol revenue this year exceeded $8 million, TVL is still 210M. 3. Pool price is not expensive at 0.1, 100M. 4. Airdrop is on CEX, and participants say the airdrop is small.
Cons: 1. Protocol revenue has been declining due to the bear market—it peaked but didn't launch a token then, and is doing so now. Peak monthly revenue was $2.81 million in March, but this month it's only around $10,000 so far. 2. Tokenomics haven't been announced, and there's little community discussion.
The project's only chance is to accumulate筹码 during the sell-off, then counter-screw the community to achieve control, fully secure contract positions, and make a profit through contracts. Otherwise, there's basically no opportunity. Not planning to buy at open, will wait for the sell-off to stabilize. With the赚钱效应 of previous projects, market attention is returning to ALPHA, and recent projects have started harvesting. Better to be cautious.
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