Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is Stablecoin Leader CRCL Worth Buying? Why Can't High-Growth Earnings Drive the Stock Price?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-12-09Last updated on 2025-12-09

Abstract

"Circle (NYSE: CRCL), the issuer of USDC, has sparked intense debate in the crypto community following its Q3 2025 earnings report. Despite reporting strong growth—revenue up 66% YoY to $740 million and net income of $214 million, driven by a 108% increase in USDC circulation—its stock price fell significantly post-earnings and remains near its IPO price of $64. The core disagreement revolves around Circle’s business model and sustainability. Critics, including Jiang Zhuorer, argue that Circle operates like a bank, earning primarily through interest on reserve assets (mainly U.S. Treasuries), but is highly vulnerable to interest rate cuts. They highlight that ~60% of revenue is paid to distributors like Coinbase, leaving thin margins that could turn negative in a low-rate environment. They also warn of competition from traditional financial giants like JPMorgan and potential policy changes. Proponents, such as BTCdayu and qinbafrank, counter that Circle is building a long-term, network-driven infrastructure play. They compare it to Amazon or JD.com, arguing that current profit-sharing is a strategic cost to achieve scale, compliance advantage, and eventual market dominance in a winner-take-all industry. They believe USDC’s合规 (compliance) edge and institutional trust will drive adoption to multi-trillion dollars, outweighing interest rate risks. Short-term concerns include significant post-IPO lockup expirations adding selling pressure, and structural barriers like U.S. tax...

Original / Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author / DingDang (@XiaMiPP)

Recently, the Chinese X community has sparked a fierce debate around "Is Circle (NYSE: CRCL) worth buying?", with the court of public opinion clearly split into two major camps. One side sees it as a value stock with significant institutional红利 (dividends/benefits) in the stablecoin赛道 (track/sector), while the other frequently questions the fragility of its profit model and potential cyclical risks. The交锋 (clash/exchange) of views reflects the vastly different judgment logics and expectation levels the current market holds for innovative projects.

Based on a large amount of public discussion and rational analysis within the community, Odaily Planet Daily梳理 (sorts out/compiles) the core arguments and reasoning paths of both sides, attempting to present the deeper structural disagreements behind the controversy beyond emotions and stances.

Background Brief

Since its listing on the NYSE on June 5, 2025, Circle (NYSE: CRCL) has experienced a complete, typical price curve of a "narrative-driven asset": from an IPO price of $64, it quickly rose to a阶段性 (phase/period) high of $298.9 in a short time, then gradually declined, and around November 20, 2025, returned near its IPO price, touching a low of $64.9, recently rebounding to around $83.9.

On November 12, 2025, CRCL announced its first full quarterly (Q3) earnings report post-IPO: total revenue of $740 million, a year-on-year increase of 66%; net profit of $214 million, EPS $0.64, significantly exceeding market expectations. The most crucial driving factor came from the surge in USDC circulation from $35.5 billion in the same period last year to $73.7 billion (+108%),以及 (as well as) the rise in reserve asset yields in a high-interest-rate environment.

However, the stock price fell 11.4% on the first day after the earnings release and累计 (accumulatively) fell 20% over the week. Key pain points included high分销费用 (distribution fees) ($448 million, 60% of revenue), operating expenses eroding profits, a high proportion of non-recurring income (71% from fair value changes in investments),以及 selling pressure from the lock-up expiration. According to SEC filings, the IPO lock-up period ended after the Q3 earnings report, with a potentially huge number of shares becoming eligible for sale starting November 14.

围绕 (Surrounding/Regarding) these facts, Odaily Planet Daily has compiled the differing views, such as those from @0xNing0x, Jiang Zhuo'er, @Phyrex_Ni, @BTCdayu, @qinbafrank, for readers to compare and analyze.

I. Is the Profit Model Sustainable: Is CRCL a Bank or Financial Infrastructure?

Jiang Zhuo'er believes that CRCL's profit source is essentially "earning the interest rate spread": users exchange money for USDC, Circle allocates these funds to low-risk assets like U.S. Treasuries, earns interest income, then deducts operating costs and channel profit-sharing.

But the problem is, CRCL's profit distribution structure is extremely unfavorable to itself. According to the agreement, about 61% of the profit must be shared with Coinbase, and Coinbase also holds a 22% share of USDC, with 100% of this portion's收益 (收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益极难在短时间内复制 Circle 所已经完成的合规路径、渠道网络与机构信任积累。

Related Questions

QWhat are the main arguments for and against investing in Circle (CRCL) according to the article?

AThe main arguments against investing include concerns over its profit-sharing model with Coinbase (which takes about 61% of profits), high dependency on interest rates from reserve assets making it vulnerable in a rate-cutting cycle, potential competition from traditional financial giants like JPMorgan, and short-term selling pressure from the lock-up period expiration. The main arguments for investing are that CRCL is strategically sacrificing short-term profits to build scale, network effects, and user trust; it is positioned to benefit from future stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity; and its compliance and partnerships form a strong moat that could lead to long-term dominance in the compliant stablecoin space.

QHow does Circle's (CRCL) profit model work, and why is it considered controversial?

ACircle's profit model primarily relies on earning interest from the reserve assets (like U.S. Treasuries) backing its USDC stablecoin. The controversy stems from the high distribution costs, where approximately 61% of the profits are shared with distribution partners like Coinbase. Critics argue this leaves CRCL with a very small portion of the actual profits, making the model fragile, especially if interest rates decline significantly. Supporters view the profit-sharing as a strategic cost to acquire market share and build a dominant network effect in the stablecoin industry.

QWhat is the impact of interest rate changes on Circle's (CRCL) profitability?

AInterest rate changes have a significant impact on CRCL's profitability. The company's income is highly dependent on the yield from its reserve assets. In a high-interest-rate environment, this generates substantial revenue. However, critics warn that a transition to a rate-cutting cycle could severely compress CRCL's profit margins. If rates fall to around 2% while operational costs remain near 1%, the model could become unprofitable after accounting for distribution partner shares. Supporters argue that growth in USDC's circulation size could outweigh the negative impact of gradually falling rates.

QWhat are the key competitive threats to Circle (CRCL) and USDC mentioned in the debate?

AThe key competitive threats discussed are twofold. First, traditional financial giants like JPMorgan entering the stablecoin market with their substantial resources, credit backing, and potential to use subsidies to gain market share. Second, the potential for regulatory changes that could erode Circle's current advantages or for competitors to find ways to bypass existing restrictions on paying interest to users. Proponents of CRCL counter that its deep compliance, established trust, network effects, and open-network design create a significant moat that closed-loop institutional solutions from banks cannot easily overcome.

QWhat short-term trading concern is highlighted regarding CRCL's stock price?

AA major short-term trading concern highlighted is the significant selling pressure from the expiration of the IPO lock-up period. The lock-up for insiders, founders, employees, and early investors ended after the Q3 earnings report, potentially releasing a large number of shares into the market. This sudden increase in supply creates a risk of downward pressure on the stock price in the near term, leading some traders to adopt a wait-and-see approach until this uncertainty is resolved.

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Just Now, Chinese AI Enters Top 2 in Global Programming, Only Claude Remains Ahead

**China's AI Ranks Second Globally in Programming, Trailing Only Claude** Today, Alibaba's Qwen3.7-Max achieved a score of 1541 on the Code Arena benchmark, securing fourth place globally and surpassing top models like GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.5 Flash. Among the top positions, it is now the only non-Claude model, placing second overall after Anthropic's Opus models. Before this official ranking, Qwen3.7-Max had already gained recognition overseas. In practical tests, it outperformed rivals on tasks like creating a self-training Tetris AI and generating complex 3D models, often at a significantly lower cost. Developers praised its ability, especially when integrated with tools like Hermes Agent and OpenCode, to effectively replace models such as GPT-5.5. In a hands-on challenge to create a 3D racing game from a detailed prompt, Qwen3.7-Max delivered a fully playable HTML file in the first attempt, requiring only minor bug fixes. It uniquely included a start menu and sound effects—details missed by other models. While competitors like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Claude Opus 4.6 produced less polished or functional versions, and GPT-5.5 had its own quirks, Qwen3.7-Max stood out for its initial completeness and playability. This performance stems from its design as an "Agent Base Model," built for long-duration, autonomous task execution. Internal tests show it can run continuously for 35 hours, making over 1158 tool calls without context degradation or instruction drift. Key technical advancements include "environment expansion" training, which improves adaptability across different frameworks, and "long-horizon autonomous execution" training, enabling sustained strategic decision-making. By entering the top tier of the programming arena, Qwen3.7-Max demonstrates that Chinese AI models are not just catching up but are becoming defining competitors, challenging the long-standing dominance of Silicon Valley in this field.

marsbit20m ago

Just Now, Chinese AI Enters Top 2 in Global Programming, Only Claude Remains Ahead

marsbit20m ago

From a Lunch Table to an Infinite Universe: Fei-Fei Li Bets on AI's Next Dimension

From a Lunch Table Conversation to an Infinite Universe: Fei-Fei Li Bets on AI's Next Frontier - Spatial Intelligence In an era dominated by large language models, AI pioneer Fei-Fei Li argues that true understanding requires spatial intelligence — the ability to perceive, reason, and interact within the physical 3D/4D world. She points to evolutionary history: spatial perception drove the Cambrian explosion 540 million years ago, while language is a far more recent, inherently "lossy" way to encode reality. Current models struggle with basic spatial tasks a child can do, like counting chairs in a video. Her company, World Labs, is pioneering this shift with "Marble," a model that generates navigable, consistent 3D worlds from text, images, or simple 3D inputs—distinct from video generators like Sora. Though smaller than models like GPT-5, due to scarce 3D data and early-stage scaling laws, Marble is already used in gaming, robot training (by NVIDIA), architectural design, and personalized therapy for conditions like OCD and acrophobia. Li envisions this technology enabling "infinite universes" for creativity, social interaction, and more. However, she cautions against utopian or dystopian extremes, advocating for a measured vision where AI enhances human dignity and prosperity, akin to how electricity transformed civilization. The journey is long — as evidenced by the 20-year path to viable autonomous vehicles — but the direction is clear: for AI to move from merely talking about the world to truly understanding and acting within it.

marsbit23m ago

From a Lunch Table to an Infinite Universe: Fei-Fei Li Bets on AI's Next Dimension

marsbit23m ago

X Stock Market Investment & Trading: A 'Noise-Free' List of 50 Key Accounts

Titled "A 'Noise-Reduction' List of 50 Top US Stock Market Influencers on X," this article curates a selection of accounts for investors seeking quality information beyond follower counts. The list prioritizes accounts that have consistently discussed US stocks, ETFs, earnings, macroeconomics, options, and tech/AI/semiconductor topics over the past 90 days. Selection criteria focused on genuine informational value, stable analytical frameworks over mere news aggregation, and a clear relevance to US equity markets, with tighter filtering for crypto-heavy accounts. The final 50 accounts are categorized into three groups: - **Core US Stocks/Trading (31 accounts)**: Covering market trends, individual stocks, earnings, valuation, options, macroeconomics, and trading strategies. - **Tech/AI/Semiconductors (18 accounts)**: Focused on tech stocks, AI supply chains, semiconductor cycles, data centers, and cloud capital expenditure. - **News Source (1 account)**: Useful as a news radar, not for standalone decision-making. Presented alphabetically by handle, the list includes analysts, traders, and researchers such as @amy6tina (options/CFA), @dylan522p (semiconductors/AI infrastructure), @gerberkawasaki (tech stocks), @jimcramer (market commentary), and @tengyanai (semiconductors/AI trends). The article suggests using the list to: 1) complete one's information sources on US markets and specific sectors, 2) observe narrative linkages between AI, semiconductors, earnings, macro liquidity, and stock prices, and 3) "de-noise" and enhance the quality of one's X feed. It clarifies this is not investment advice or an endorsement, but a snapshot of content relevance and informational value for US equity investors.

marsbit29m ago

X Stock Market Investment & Trading: A 'Noise-Free' List of 50 Key Accounts

marsbit29m ago

Can Ethereum Stage The Biggest Comeback In History? Why Price Could Double

Crypto analyst Mrlaimfx09 predicts Ethereum (ETH) could stage a historic comeback, potentially doubling in price to around $3,300 within weeks. The forecast hinges on ETH maintaining strength above the critical $2,000 support level after a prolonged downtrend. With selling pressure fading and buyers returning, the analyst outlines a bullish path: a sharp rally to $2,400, followed by a move toward $3,000 and a final target near $3,300. However, he warns that a weekly close below $2,071 could invalidate this outlook, leading to a potential breakdown toward $1,734. At the time of writing, ETH was trading around $2,090.

bitcoinist1h ago

Can Ethereum Stage The Biggest Comeback In History? Why Price Could Double

bitcoinist1h ago

GSR Research Says Ethereum’s Identity Crisis Is Deepening

GSR Research highlights Ethereum's deepening strategic and identity crisis, driven by high-profile departures from the Ethereum Foundation (EF), weak ETH performance, and internal debate over the EF's role. Analysts argue the EF's new "CROPS" framework (censorship resistance, open source, privacy, security) is seen as deprioritizing growth amid pressure from rivals like Solana. Vitalik Buterin responded by advocating for a smaller EF focused narrowly on CROPS and credible neutrality, not growth, betting on technical pillars like AI-assisted formal verification and "available chain consensus." However, the report concludes that while credible neutrality is a key differentiator, Ethereum's window to execute its vision is not unlimited as competitors advance on user experience and throughput.

bitcoinist4h ago

GSR Research Says Ethereum’s Identity Crisis Is Deepening

bitcoinist4h ago

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Welcome to HTX.com! We've made purchasing Threshold Network Token (T) simple and convenient. Follow our step-by-step guide to embark on your crypto journey.Step 1: Create Your HTX AccountUse your email or phone number to sign up for a free account on HTX. Experience a hassle-free registration journey and unlock all features.Get My AccountStep 2: Go to Buy Crypto and Choose Your Payment MethodCredit/Debit Card: Use your Visa or Mastercard to buy Threshold Network Token (T) instantly.Balance: Use funds from your HTX account balance to trade seamlessly.Third Parties: We've added popular payment methods such as Google Pay and Apple Pay to enhance convenience.P2P: Trade directly with other users on HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): We offer tailor-made services and competitive exchange rates for traders.Step 3: Store Your Threshold Network Token (T)After purchasing your Threshold Network Token (T), store it in your HTX account. Alternatively, you can send it elsewhere via blockchain transfer or use it to trade other cryptocurrencies.Step 4: Trade Threshold Network Token (T)Easily trade Threshold Network Token (T) on HTX's spot market. Simply access your account, select your trading pair, execute your trades, and monitor in real-time. We offer a user-friendly experience for both beginners and seasoned traders.

11.7k Total ViewsPublished 2024.03.29Updated 2025.03.21

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