"RBC-Crypto" does not provide investment advice, the material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.
Bitcoin surpassed the $80k mark for the first time this summer, soaring 25% within a week. At its peak, the price of the leading cryptocurrency exceeded $81.3k, updating the high since early May. Over the past 24 hours, $BTC has risen by 4%. As of 11:00 Moscow time on August 25, it is trading around $80.1k.
Experts interviewed by "RBC-Crypto" gave several forecasts on Bitcoin's further dynamics and explained what will influence the price in the near future. According to analysts, further growth is possible, but the risk of increased volatility remains.
"Everything Looks Quite Positive"
Bitcoin has risen almost 30% over the last 10 days – this is a strong impulse after a period of record low volatility in previous months, says Nikita Bredikhin, Lead Investment Analyst at Go Invest. However, he noted that the price is still within the price channel in the range of $60–82k.
Medium-term prospects for cryptocurrencies look quite positive, as the latest macro statistics in the US indicated moderate inflation dynamics and a cooling labor market, while the US Treasury's reverse repurchase of long-term bonds is keeping yields in check, the expert said.
In addition, the semiconductor sector and memory manufacturers sector are showing weaker dynamics, which attracts speculative capital to more volatile markets, the analyst added.
"However, we do not expect a full-fledged uptrend in the near future, as pressure from high US Federal Reserve (Fed) rates persists," Bredikhin said.
According to him, the further dynamics of cryptocurrencies will depend on the statement by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will take place from August 27 to 29. In addition to classic comments regarding monetary policy, the topic of cryptocurrencies may be touched upon at the symposium.
If the regulator's rhetoric regarding monetary policy turns out to be softer, the growth may continue. The base scenario assumes sideways movement of bitcoin within the price channel and preservation of high volatility.
Movement Towards $90k
The current strong Bitcoin growth is more characteristic of a trend reversal than a usual short-term rebound, says Alexander Kraiko, Lead Analyst at crypto broker Cifra Markets. Analyzing similar situations in the past, the expert noted that in most cases, after such an impulse, the growth continued quite quickly.
"If we draw an analogy with the current situation, movement towards $90k could take from seven to 25 days. On average, it's about two weeks," Kraiko said.
Under such a scenario, the analyst expects that after reaching the $82k level, Bitcoin may briefly go sideways before continuing its upward movement towards $90k.
Earlier, experts named the continued inflow into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as an important factor for growth. Over the last six trading sessions, about $2.2 billion has flowed into them.
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