The scars from the Q4 2025 crash are still testing investor conviction.
At the peak of the sell-off, the total crypto market cap erased more than $1 trillion, triggering a record $19 billion in liquidations. Even months later, the shock from that event continues to influence positioning.
In market environments like this, a strong institutional bid around Bitcoin [BTC] is often interpreted as a bullish signal. Notably, a released SEC filing suggests that trading giant Jane Street has leaned into that exact playbook.
Based on the chart above, Jane Street added 7.1 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), worth $276 million, in Q4 2025. This brings its total holdings to 20,315,780 shares, valued at $790 million.
Normally, accumulation of this scale would boost retail sentiment. Instead, some market participants argue that Jane Street’s buying may be contributing to price suppression, capping downside moves in Bitcoin.
From a technical perspective, parts of this thesis appear noteworthy. Despite the heavy accumulation, BTC still closed the quarter down 24%, even as Jane Street ranked as the second-largest IBIT buyer in Q4 2025.
Fast forward to now, BlackRock continues to record net outflows, while the latest SEC filing has further intensified manipulation concerns.
In this environment, is the incentive to keep HODLing Bitcoin beginning to fade?
Bitcoin long-term holders signal rising distribution risk
Bitcoin’s technical structure continues to lean bearish.
On the weekly timeframe, BTC has formed five consecutive lower lows, with no clear consolidation developing around the $65k zone.
In this context, treating this level as a breakout launchpad may be premature, as current bid activity does not yet signal convincing accumulation.
Meanwhile, selling pressure continues to dominate.
On-chain data shows rising long-term holder inflows into Binance, while the average LTH SOPR remains elevated at 1.87, signaling that LTHs are increasingly realizing losses on their Bitcoin positions.
Overall, Bitcoin’s current range shows a clear imbalance.
Most importantly, at the sentiment level, this highlights waning conviction among LTHs, as realized losses are starting to outweigh the incentive to HODL for future gains.
In short, the effects of ongoing market stress are becoming evident in both price action and investor behavior.
On top of this fragile setup, FUD around Jane Street’s IBIT positioning, IBIT’s 23% correction so far in 2026, and weak Bitcoin metrics are all adding pressure. Together, these factors are straining HODLing behavior.
As a result, Bitcoin is still far from showing any clear signs of a bottom.
Final Summary
- Despite Jane Street’s massive IBIT accumulation, Bitcoin remains under pressure, with LTHs realizing losses and retail sentiment muted.
- BTC’s weekly lower lows, rising LTH inflows to exchanges, and ongoing FUD signal that HODLing conviction is waning, keeping the $65k support under strain.
