2023年比特币展望：这七大主题值得我们关注

DeFi之道Published on 2023-01-04Last updated on 2023-01-04

Abstract

随着 2022 年篇章的结束，是时候把我们的目光转向 2023 年将要发生的事情了，以下是我认为 2023 年与比特币相关的一些主题。

这是来自"Stephan Livera Podcast"主持人兼 Swan Bitcoin International 董事总经理 Stephan Livera 的评论文章。

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随着 2022 年篇章的结束，是时候把我们的目光转向 2023 年将要发生的事情了，以下是我认为 2023 年与比特币相关的一些主题。

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过度监管

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金融行动特别工作组 (FATF) 的旅行规则，正迫使交易所和比特币服务提供商记录和共享有关客户交易的更多信息。 我们看到像伊丽莎白·沃伦 (Elizabeth Warren) 这样的政客在公开反对比特币，即使她提出的数字资产反洗钱法案没有真正获得通过的机会，但这确实预示着未来会有关于比特币的战斗。

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但另一方面，我们也应该记住，政府最初也反对互联网协议语音 (VoIP) 技术 ( 例如 Skype 等 )，而现在他们也在使用 VoIP。这与比特币是类似的，一些国家将比特币作为法定货币，持有比特币储备，为公民提供比特币服务，并鼓励比特币投资者和企业家。

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CBDC 和现金战争

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针对现金收益的战争，许多国家取消了大面额现金的流通，或禁止超过一个阈值的实物现金交易。 有很多国家都在谈论央行数字货币 (CBDC) 的试验，但我的猜测是，大多数国家都不具备在 2023 年建立功能齐全的 CBDC 技术和整体经济能力。

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2023 年将主要是关于试验和言论，为未来 CBDC 的推出做准备。 在拥有高福利的国家，政府尤其可以强迫人们采用 CBDC，你可以将其理解成“如果你想要你的福利支票，你会把它当作 CBDC。”

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曾几何时，CBDC 可能被视为一种“阴谋论”，但现在它们显然已成为对金融自由和隐私的威胁。 可悲的是，直到为时已晚且 CBDC 出现在他们面前时，大多数人才会看到威胁——而 CBDC 的痛苦，也将推动更多人使用比特币和闪电网络。

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最大主义者（Maxis）正在复兴

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随着休闲「crypto」粉丝因为 Celsius、BlockFi、FTX、Voyager、vault 等平台而被收割，比特币最大主义者正在复兴。因此，在某种程度上，这是非常周期性的，2014 年 -2015 年的熊市周期紧随 Mt. Gox 的崩溃之后，在 2018 年 - 2019 年的熊市周期中，我们看到了 QuadrigaCX 的崩溃。所以，我们只是经历了另一轮人们不得不艰难学习的过程。

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到 2023 年，我们将看到更强大的自我托管文化，因为 2022 年的痛苦是最近发生的。这并不是要排除未来的周期和新采用浪潮，因为新人进来的时候并没有那么谨慎。收益率和垃圾币（shitcoin）骗局迟早会以另一种形式回归，但这将属于新一轮屈服于它们的人。

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我们正在看到更多与自我托管相关的内容和网络研讨会。提供简单的自动提款功能或 100% 非托管，将是 2023 年比特币入口的一个重要功能。

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Miniscript 钱包和功能

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根据 Pieter Wuille 的网站：

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「Miniscript 是一种以结构化的方式编写比特币脚本 ( 子集 ) 的语言，支持分析、组合、通用签名等。」

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对于那些不熟悉它的人来说，Miniscript 是一种更容易表达比特币不同脚本或消费条件的方式。这可以构建在不同的钱包中，以实现更容易的跨硬件和软件兼容性。

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你可能首先会想，「我为什么要关心它 ？」一开始，你问这个问题是对的。但随着时间的推移，这将实现更复杂的自我托管、企业甚至继承规划场景。想要有一个 3/3 的多重签名钱包设置，其在 90 天后降级为 2/3 的多重签名钱包设置? 或者在业务上下文中存在不同的“退出”条件? Miniscript 使这些事情变得更容易，并允许人们使用他们现有的软件或硬件来实现这一目的。需要明确的是，其中一些已经可以通过比特币脚本实现，但 Miniscript 使其在技术上更可行，或在实践中更容易实现。

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构建这些解决方案需要时间，但其功能看起来似乎很有前途。 企业和企业客户可能对此特别感兴趣，因为这可以使他们的自我托管实践对员工和密钥持有者来说更加实际。

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目前，有 Liana（由 Revault 背后的同一团队开发）和 Ledger 在做这方面的工作，后者已宣布在其硬件中支持 Miniscript，而 Spectre DIY 已于 2021 年启用了支持！ Rob Hamilton 也谈到了 Miniscript 在保险领域的应用。 我预计在 2023 年，Miniscript 会得到更多的支持。

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这可能有助于将比特币的使用推向自我托管的方向，并远离金融服务的「旧模式」，在旧模式下，你必须更加信任政府、银行和法定金融机构，让它们信守诺言，否则就会减少你的财富。

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闪电网络优先

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是时候为两种类型的比特币交易（低价值交易和面对面交易）引入闪电网络优先模型了。 我们看到了 mempoolfullRBF 的辩论‌在 2022 年底爆发，但对我们大多数人来说，真正的答案是尽可能首先推广和使用闪电网络。

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作为一个简短的轶事，我记得与 Giacomo Zucco 的交谈，他解释了他在萨尔瓦多超市使用比特币支付的经历。 不幸的是，当时的 Chivo 终端默认采用比特币链上支付，当他在链上支付时，排在他后面的人不得不等待确认，这非常尴尬。 相比之下，闪电网络优先的体验看起来更像这样:

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我们应该向人们展示比特币最好的一面，而对于面对面的、低价值的商业，我们应该首先选择闪电网络。 我相信我们将在 2023 年开始看到更多比特币爱好者和当地社区推动和鼓励这种做法。

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比特币社区和活动的扩展

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我们将在世界各国看到更多的活动和小型会议。与一些认为比特币会议太多的人相反，这个问题更多的是假设你必须参加所有会议 !

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相反，你应该参加与你的兴趣和 / 或地理位置相符的活动和会议。举行更多的会议是一件好事，只要它们以低成本、有效的方式进行。例如，《Bitcoin bush bash》是一种我们可能会在世界各地看到的模式——免费参加，在大厅或其他免费 / 便宜的地方举行，没有录音，在具有成本效益的地方举办规模较小的聚会。

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通过降低对通常花费更多钱的事情的期望（例如，花哨的、专业化的操作、直播、许多国际演讲者），比特币爱好者可以扩大他们的本地场景和聚会。这并不是要贬低更大的比特币活动和会议，因为它们也发挥着关键作用——但我看到了一个“中间地带”，可以由低成本的本地活动占据。

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整体情绪

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在没有 2023 年水晶球的情况下，我认为比特币的法币价格将主要保持横盘趋势。忘记那些狂热的人在发布和谈论什么吧，他们通常是在追求参与度，或者太沉迷于自己的「回音室」。周期触底需要时间。

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但让我们从好的方面来看，这是一个囤积比特币和建造东西的好时机。请记住，在之前的周期中，「比特币会王者归来」并不是那么明确，而现在，世界正在慢慢意识到比特币会继续存在。

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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