火必周刊

火必Pubblicato 2022-11-27Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-11-27

Introduzione

本周加密市场都发生了哪些事?一起来回顾吧。

1. 美国白宫发布《G20巴厘领导人宣言》呼吁建立全球加密监管框架;

2. 萨尔瓦多政府提交《数字资产发行法》法案,将建立加密货币发行框架;

3. 俄罗斯立法者制定法律框架以启动“国家加密货币交易所”;

4. 中国国家外汇局管理检查司副司长:应推动将虚拟货币监管纳入法律法规规范;

5. Huobi Token (HT)上线Bitfinex交易所;

6. 马斯克公布Twitter 2.0规划,但未披露“支付”功能。

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#政策

1. 美国白宫发布《G20巴厘领导人宣言》呼吁建立全球加密监管框架;

2. 乌克兰证券监管机构下属新委员会将起草加密税收法规;

3. 瑞士监管机构否决FTX Europe的交易牌照申请;

4. 中国国家外汇局管理检查司副司长:应推动将虚拟货币监管纳入法律法规规范;

5. 萨尔瓦多政府提交《数字资产发行法》法案,将建立加密货币发行框架;

6. 美国纽约州州长已签署为期两年的加密挖矿暂停法案;

7. 日本央行将在2026年决定是否发行数字日元;

8. 纽约总检察长建议禁止通过退休基金投资加密货币;

9. 俄罗斯立法者制定法律框架以启动“国家加密货币交易所”;

10. 全球证券监管机构主席:明年重点关注对FTX类加密集团平台进行监管;

11. 欧洲议会通过数字政策,欧盟区块链基础设施计划开始实施;

12. 土耳其当局下令没收与FTX有关的“可疑资产”;

13. 香港财政司司长:将为虚拟资产服务供应商推出新的发牌制度;

14. 尼日利亚SEC不计划将加密货币纳入改善数字资产交易方案;

15. 普京呼吁建立基于区块链和数字货币的国际结算系统。

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#币种项目

1. 亚洲市场比特币供应创历史新高,占总供应量7.3%;

2. 比特币全网难度升至36.95 T创历史新高;

3. BTC长期持有者亏损情况已超2018年熊市;

4. 超过50%的比特币地址目前处于亏损状态;

5. 数据:USDC Treasury销毁逾2亿枚USDC;

6. Huobi Token (HT)上线Bitfinex交易所;

7. Chainlink质押协议v0.1测试版将于12月上线以太坊主网;

8. Genesis在过去3个月内从FTX和Alameda收到价值超10亿美元的FTT;

9. Polygon Avail完成测试网第一阶段,预计明年发布主网;

10. 印度央行将于12月启动零售CBDC试点;

11. Curve发布其稳定币crvUSD代码和白皮书;

12. 比特币核心客户端Bitcoin Core发布24.0版本;

13. 以太坊上海升级将开放质押ETH提款,但升级时间或将晚于此前路线图;

14. 以太坊核心开发者在周四的会议上讨论将EIP-4844纳入考虑范围;

15. Vitalik Buterin:EIP-4844是大规模降低L2费用的关键一步;

16. Sushi新任CEO:已完成新Token经济学初稿,将于下周进行内部展示。

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#NFT

1. 保时捷官网推出NFT页面,并创建含以太坊符号的推特账户;

2. 《侠盗猎车手》开发商禁止第三方服务器使用加密货币或NFT;

3. 数据:Alameda持有NFT价值17.4万美元,其中包含81个Sandbox Lands;

4. 奢侈品巨头PRADA将于12月1日发布新款Timecapsule NFT系列。

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#元宇宙

1. 元宇宙支持者、Genies董事会成员将重新担任迪士尼CEO;

2. The Sandbox将与世界旅游论坛研究所和TourismX合作推出Tourismverse;

3. 牛津年度词汇首次邀请公众投票选,“元宇宙”入围前三;

4. 调查:LG位居元宇宙专利排名首位,华为、Meta等跻身前五。

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#WEB3

1. a16 Crypto首席安全官:黑客伪造“苹果公司”来电对大量Web3名人进行网络钓鱼攻击。

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#DeFi

1. Uniswap Labs发布新隐私政策,收集用户钱包部分数据;

2. ENS DAO选择Karpatkey DAO作为新的基金管理者;

3. Uniswap创始人:Uniswap不追踪IP,同时可防止用户被第三方API追踪;

4. Cardano创始人:DeFi将在两年内成为最具竞争力的领域之一;

5. Compound关于为10个Compound v2资产调整借贷上限的提案开启投票。

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#融资

1. 资管技术平台Fasanara Capital获加拿大养老基金2亿美元授权;

2. 基于Cosmos的DeFi协议Onomy完成1000万美元融资;

3. Across Protocol以2亿美元估值完成1000万美元Success Token融资;

4. Matrixport正寻求以15亿美元估值筹集1亿美元资金;

5. Web3游戏发行商Fenix Games完成1.5亿美元资金筹集。

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#其他

1. 破产律师:债权人从FTX中取回资金可能需要几年甚至几十年;

2. FTX已在Kroll开启债权人信息登记,最大单笔索赔金额超1100万美元;

3. FTX Japan计划在今年年底前允许客户提现;

4. 知情人士:DCG欠子公司Genesis超11亿美元,并要求不要披露;

5. 亿万富翁Mark Cuban取消对MetaMask、Solana等加密项目的推特关注;

6. 加密贷款机构Nexo因涉嫌阻止1.26亿美元提款而被起诉;

7. 索尼公司已为“使用分布式账本上的代币跟踪游戏内特有数字资产”技术申请专利;

8. 受FTX破产影响,美参议员要求富达取消401(k)比特币退休计划;

9. 法庭文件显示FTX和Alameda在2022年前就亏损了37亿美元;

10. 马斯克已削减Twitter的员工福利;

11. FTX Australia相关账户被搜寻出4200万美元资产;

12. 新加坡警方正在调查Binance是否违反支付服务规则;

13. SBF向FTX内部员工发布致歉信,否认贷款被用于个人消费;

14. 受FTX破产影响,BlockFi已暂停客户贷款业务;

15. SBF:FTX用于借贷的抵押品价值从年初至今已减少510亿美元;

16. 马斯克:未从SBF/FTX获得任何投资,SBF不持有Twitter作为私人公司的股份;

17. Kraken宣布终止与俄罗斯用户的所有业务;

18. 马斯克公布Twitter 2.0规划,但未披露“支付”功能;

19. Twitter2.0或将集成Signal协议推出加密私信功能。

Letture associate

Trends in US Stocks (June 22): Strait of Hormuz Agreement Changes Course, Thursday's PCE and Micron to Determine Chip Sector Direction

U.S. Stock Market Outlook (June 22): Strait of Hormuz Deal Falters, Thursday's PCE & Micron to Set Chip Sector Direction. Geopolitical tensions resurged over the weekend as Iran's IRGC announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and its negotiation team walked out after threats from Trump, pausing U.S.-Iran talks. This renewed risk premium is weighing on U.S. equity futures ahead of the open. Last week's market was driven by chip stocks, with the Philly Semiconductor Index hitting a record high. While the Fed's hawkish tone was overshadowed by initial deal optimism, the S&P 500 gained 0.9% for the week. SpaceX debuted strongly but ended with two down days. Key events this week: The status of U.S.-Iran negotiations remains the immediate variable for oil and energy stocks. Monday sees Marvell and Flex added to the S&P 500. Tuesday's MSCI reclassification could benefit South Korean semiconductors and memory stocks. **Thursday, June 25th, is the critical day**, featuring the May Core PCE report and Micron's earnings. Hotter PCE data could solidify expectations for two 2024 rate hikes, while softer data would rapidly reprice rate cut bets. Micron's report is a key test for the AI narrative; the market will scrutinize its 2027 HBM supply visibility, HBM4 progress, and its position in Nvidia's Vera Rubin supply chain. Nvidia's AGM and a potential OpenAI GPT-5.6 release will make Thursday a pivotal 24 hours for AI. Friday concludes with the Russell reconstitution, elevating small-cap volatility. In summary, last week's gains face a true test. The path hinges on two concurrent threads: geopolitical developments with Iran and the AI narrative defined by Micron's guidance and Nvidia's updates. The chip sector's record highs are vulnerable if Thursday brings hot PCE data and conservative guidance from Micron. Conversely, positive outcomes could reaffirm the AI bull case, making this week's volatility a potential entry window.

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Trends in US Stocks (June 22): Strait of Hormuz Agreement Changes Course, Thursday's PCE and Micron to Determine Chip Sector Direction

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OpenAI's "Most Open" Move: Codex No Longer Exclusively Favors GPT

OpenAI has significantly opened up its Codex programming agent by introducing a "model provider" configuration layer that allows users to connect it with various open-source models, not just its proprietary GPT. Through a configuration file or a simple `--oss` command-line flag, Codex can now route requests to local services like Ollama or LM Studio, or to third-party APIs such as Mistral or DeepSeek. This move is seen as one of OpenAI's most "open" steps, potentially lowering costs and enhancing privacy for developers who can run code generation offline. However, integration isn't seamless for all models. Codex primarily uses OpenAI's newer Responses API, while many open-source models rely on the older Chat Completions interface. This creates compatibility issues, especially for advanced features like function calling. The developer community is already building "routing" or adapter layers (e.g., CC Switch, LiteLLM) to translate between these protocols, enabling hybrid setups where GPT handles planning and open-source models handle execution. Analysts interpret this as a strategic shift for OpenAI: from competing solely on model superiority to controlling the platform and interface standards. By making Codex a flexible, pluggable entry point for AI-assisted programming, OpenAI aims to become the central hub in the developer toolchain ecosystem, even as users gain the freedom to switch underlying models.

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OpenAI's "Most Open" Move: Codex No Longer Exclusively Favors GPT

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When 500 Million People Abandon ChatGPT

ChatGPT's Global AI Assistant Market Share Drops Below 50% Three and a half years after its groundbreaking launch, ChatGPT faces a pivotal moment. While it remains the largest AI assistant globally, its market share has fallen below 50% for the first time, reaching 46.4% as of May, according to Sensor Tower's 2026 AI landscape report. Google's Gemini (27.7%) and Anthropic's Claude (10.3%) are now its main competitors, with Grok, Perplexity, and others also gaining ground. The market has evolved from awe and initial adoption into a phase of product comparison, ecosystem integration, and commercialization. User behavior has matured significantly. Loyalty is low; users readily switch between assistants for specific tasks. Gemini benefits from deep integration within Google's ecosystem (Search, Gmail, Android), while Claude has carved a niche among productivity-focused users with strong retention, nearly matching ChatGPT's. User choice is now influenced by a complex mix of capability, ecosystem, price, use case, and even brand trust. Commercialization is accelerating. AI app downloads continue but growth is slowing, while user spending is rising. Over $4.2 billion was spent in-app during H1 2026. Claude leads in premium subscription conversion rates (13%). OpenAI is expanding its revenue streams, testing ads shown to 17% of ChatGPT users daily by May. This shift highlights the immense financial pressure of model training and inference costs. Despite revenue growth, OpenAI's cash burn is intense, reaching $3.7 billion in Q1 2026. The company projects this could rise to $25-57 billion in the coming years, underscoring the industry-wide challenge of scaling profitably. The symbolism is clear: ChatGPT no longer defines the AI assistant market alone. The era of a single dominant product is over. Gemini, Claude, and specialized tools are collectively shaping user habits and business models. As AI assistants move from novelty to utility—judged on accuracy, efficiency, and value—they are becoming embedded in everyday digital life. ChatGPT may have lost its majority, but AI as a whole is winning, entering a mature, competitive, and diverse new phase.

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When 500 Million People Abandon ChatGPT

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