Can Bitcoin Withstand Continued Dollar Strength?

newsbtcPubblicato 2022-09-23Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-09-26

Introduzione

In this episode of NewsBTC's daily technical analysis videos, we examine yesterday's perfected TD9 buy setup in Bitcoin and other potentially bullish signals. We also compare BTC against the dollar...

In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we examine yesterday’s perfected TD9 buy setup in Bitcoin and other potentially bullish signals. We also compare BTC against the dollar using the DXY Dollar Currency Index.
Take a look at the video below:
VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): September 22, 2022
In yesterday’s video, we warned of a new low being made due to the appearance of a TD9 buy setup. These signals can be perfected when the candle makes a lower low. Here is how that played out.
Market Timing Tool Triggers Perfect Buy Setup During FOMC Aftermath
Given the several shakeouts and the explosive intraday volatility, taking a position based on the the TD9 buy setup was not easy. The TD Sequential has also brought its resistance level down to roughly $22,700. If price can tag the red line, we could have a low timeframe reversal.
A bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index and LMACD potentially back up this bullish signal.

Were bulls bold enough to take action at the TD9 buy setup? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Building The Case For A Possible Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom
Momentum is also right on the zero line on weekly timeframes, where those same bullish divergences could be building. The doji candle is indicative of indecision in the market, and could be a pause prior to a reversal, or strong continuation to the downside.
Weekly momentum has also fallen to the same level where past reversals formed. A bullish crossover might be all it takes to confirm a bottom is already in. In 2018, once crossed, Bitcoin took off like a rocket with more than 300% ROI in three months.
Comparing former bear market bottoms using the Relative Strength Index, each time the indicator reached oversold conditions on weekly timeframes, the bottom was already in. The PPO Percentile Rank which helps find tops and bottoms, shows that Bitcoin has been exhibiting bottom-like behavior. Moving out from the green range often has been the start of a new bull run.

Several indicators could suggest the bottom is in | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
BTC Versus USD: It All Comes Down To The Dollar
What happens to Bitcoin at this point has more to do with the dollar. The dollar is one half of the BTCUSD trading pair, making it especially important.
The dollar has been in a powerful uptrend, as you can see in the daily chart. However, momentum has been making lower highs suggesting that the underlying strength is weakening.
The DXY dollar currency index is also potentially forming an ending diagonal, which looks much like a rising wedge. These potentially bearish signals could create a reversal in the dollar that allows Bitcoin to bounce.
A comparison with Bitcoin offers a potential example of what might happen in the dollar. After a failed upthrust, price action reversed and a high was put in.

Is the DXY forming an ending diagonal? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
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