以太坊一年内相对比特币(BTC)下跌35%:ETH价格下行趋势会否延续?

Cointelegraph中文Опубликовано 2026-05-11Обновлено 2026-05-11

Введение

以太坊兑比特币的持续下跌趋势与2024年至2025年期间所见的看跌结构相呼应,增加了再次下跌40%的风险。

以太坊的原生代币以太坊 (ETH) 在过去一年中相对比特币 (BTC) 下跌超过35%,而这一跌势可能仍未结束。

要点:

ETH 可能再下跌40%,走势正与2025年看跌趋势形态相呼应。

尽管比特币储备下降,币安上的以太坊储备却在上升,这进一步强化了 ETH 继续走弱的理由。

ETH 在多年趋势线附近见顶后面临40%回调风险

ETH/BTC 仍受困于一条多年下行趋势线下方,自2022年以来每次突破尝试都被其压制,其中一次还先于2024年至2025年间近70%的跌幅。

ETH/BTC 月线图。来源:TradingView

如今,类似的形态似乎再次成形。

在2025年8月重新测试同一趋势线后,ETH/BTC 在一处阻力共振区域附近遭到拒绝,该区域包括0.382斐波那契回撤位和50个月指数移动平均线(50个月 EMA,红色)。

此后,该交易对转弱,并重新跌破其20个月 EMA(绿色)支撑位附近的0.034 BTC,表明卖方仍主导趋势。

若弱势延续,2026年的下一个主要下行目标约为0.0176 BTC。该水平较当前价格低约40%,与2020年周期底部相吻合。

交易所储备凸显 ETH-BTC 分化

交易所数据表明,以太坊面临持续的卖压风险。

据数据平台CryptoQuant称,截至5月,全球交易量最大的加密货币交易所币安上的 ETH 储备已升至362万枚 ETH,约占交易所持有全部以太坊的24.6%。

相比之下,币安上的比特币储备则在下降。

交易所余额上升通常意味着可供出售的代币更多;当需求不足以消化新增供应时,这往往会对价格形成压力。

相反,储备下降通常意味着代币正被转出交易所,以便长期持有。

从这一角度看,币安储备趋势强化了更广泛的市场图景:以太坊面临相对更高的可用供应,而比特币则显示出交易所侧流动性趋紧的迹象。

以太坊的疲弱反映出基本面的更广泛转变。多年来,以太坊之所以落后于比特币,部分原因在于其“超声波货币”叙事热度减弱。

另一方面,比特币则继续受益于以 Strategy 等公司为代表的企业增持,以及其在华尔街投资组合中的日益融入。

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